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Top 50 WNBA Players in 2024 – Part Two

25. Brittney Sykes, Washington Mystics, age 30 season
2023 stats: 15.9 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 35.0% from three

Sykes continues to be a high level defender, making her second All-Defensive First Team. She also had her best three point shooting season on her way to her most efficient scoring season since the shortened 2020 season. That offensive ability is key to her ranking here – if she can keep that up, she’ll keep being a top 25-level player, but if its drops off like it did in 2021, she’ll be more in the 35-45 range.

24. Allisha Gray, Atlanta Dream, age 29 season
2023 stats: 17.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, 35.6% from three

Gray finally made her first All-Star team, which is something of a surprise given her status as a former Rookie of the Year. She hit career highs in points & assists per game. Her addition to Atlanta was key to the team’s improvement and (brief) return to the playoffs. Her scoring efficiency stayed around the same level as it’s been since 2019, and she got to the free throw line more often than at any point in her career. If she continues to keep those numbers up, she’ll probably prove she should have been up a couple spots.

23. Courtney Vandersloot, New York Liberty, age 35 season
2023 stats: 10.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 8.1 APG

Vandersloot started showing her age last year. Her scoring efficiency fell hard last year, as did her free throw rate. Most concerning is that her three point shooting fell below 30% for the first time since 2019. But she remains a very capable distributor, hitting a 40% assist percentage for the sixth time in the last seven seasons. There’s some reason for concern given her age, but she still remained very productive overall.

22. Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever, age 22 season
rookie season

Clark is obviously getting super hyped, and there’s a lot of drama to find surrounding that. Old fans will be concerned that people won’t respect the great players that are already established, let alone the stars of the past. There’s also the question of would they get around a player like this that’s not white.

But there’s one thing that is beyond doubt: Clark’s 2023-24 season at Iowa had the best individual seasons in several years and one of the best ever. She scores well, she creates well, and she grabs steals at an exceptional rate. There’s questions about just how much the offense will center around her, but her excellence will absolutely shine through as a pro.

21. Jonquel Jones, New York Liberty, age 30 season
2023 stats: 11.3 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.3 BPG

Jones sacrificed some of her own individual stats while joining the Liberty, but her effective field goal percentage remained elite once again. One thing to watch is last year’s drop in her rate at getting to the free throw line. That might be a sign of decreasing athleticism, but there’s plenty of other stuff to like. I believe she’ll remain an elite post player for a few more seasons.

20. Skylar Diggins-Smith, Seattle Storm, age 33 season
2022 stats: 19.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.6 SPG, 1.0 BPG

Skylar is coming back from a year off with maternity leave, so I’m being slightly conservative here in her ranking. She finished in the top ten for MVP voting in 2020, 2021, and 2022, so I wouldn’t be shocked if she was 5 or more spots low here. One would expect her playmaking ability to remain. One specific point of concern: her scoring efficiency dropped from 2020 to 2021 to 2022.

19. Cheynne Parker-Tyus, Atlanta Dream, age 31 season
2023 stats: 15.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.5 BPG

Parker-Tyus finally took that step up that people have been waiting on her to take for nine years. She stayed on the court, she recorded 15 PPG, and she hit an all-time high in usage percentage at 26.1% while maintaining her efficient scoring while averaging 26+ MPG for just the second time in her career. If she can keep the performance up while staying on the court, she’ll deserve this spot.

18. Arike Ogunbowale, Dallas Wings, age 27 season
2023 stats: 21.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.7 SPG, 34.3% from three

Arike is one of the most explosive scorers in the WNBA, but every aspect of her game dropped slightly in 2023 from 2022. She’s taking fewer free throws than ever, and that’s a meaningful part of her game. She still creates plenty of assists to her benefit.

17. Ezi Magbegor, Seattle Storm, age 24 season
2023 stats: 13.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.9 BPG, 38.5% from three

Magbegor took a huge step forward in 2023, establishing herself as a key part of the offense and pretty much maintained her scoring efficiency. Her assist percentage was up, her rebounding was up overall, and she really added a three-point shot to her game. This established her as an All-Star for the first time of her career.

16. Jewell Loyd, Seattle Storm, age 30 season
2023 stats: 24.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.0 SPG, 35.7% from three

Loyd took a huge step up with the change over in the Storm’s roster, leading the league in scoring. She improved her ability to reach the free throw line significantly, upped her usage percentage, and cut down on turnovers. Other than her three-point make percentage dropped slightly, she maintained or improved across the statline.

15. DeWanna Bonner, Connecticut Sun, age 36 season
2023 stats: 17.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, 32.9% from three

Bonner bounced back from a slightly down 2022, making her fifth All-Star team. She remained a great wing and just did what she’s done for her entire career: produce. Her age is a concern, but we’ve seen plenty of people manage to performed in the WNBA as 36 year-olds.

14. Teaira McCowan, Dallas Wings, age 27 season
2023 stats: 11.9 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.2 BPG

Dallas absolutely ended up winning the trade for McCowan, who’s become a very good starting center. She remains a strong interior presence and has slowly been improving her passing along the way. There’s no chance she’ll ever truly stretch an opposing defense, but if you can accept “only” being a great interior player, then she’s earned her spot here.

13. Kelsey Plum, Las Vegas Aces, age 29 season
2023 stats: 18.7 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.1 SPG, 38.9% from three

Plum remains a deadeye shooter, which is absolutely her best skill on the court. But she does a nice job creating for others as well and does a better job of getting to the line than you might expect a 5’8″ three-point specialist to do. She’s just one of the best scorers in the league, period.

12. Satou Sabally, Dallas Wings, age 26 season
2023 stats: 18.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.8 SPG, 43.5% from three

It’s a damn shame that Sabally’s breakout season was immediately followed by shoulder surgery this past February. She hit career highs in nearly every single measure, plus was finally able to stay on the court reliably for the first time as a pro. She should be able to return by late in the season, which should give Dallas a good bump for the playoffs, but staying on the floor remains an issue.

11. Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx, age 27 season
2023 stats: 21.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.6 SPG, 1.2 BPG

Collier is another player who hit a high water mark in 2023 after injury issues in 2022. She hit high marks in win shares and PER. Her effective field goal percentage hit a three-year high while having a huge 28.9% usage percentage. Collier could easily be a top ten player by year’s end.

10. Jackie Young, Las Vegas Aces, age 26 season
2023 stats: 17.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.3 SPG, 44.9% from three

Young had her best season as a pro as a very high efficiency scorer who can also create for others and rip the ball away from the opponents. Young has established herself as a dynamic scorer who can carry a team’s offense.

9. Brionna Jones, Connecticut Sun, age 28 season
2023 stats: 15.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.8 SPG

Jones is one of the best bigs in the league, despite missing nearly 3/4 of last season. An efficient scorer who can make it to the line, rebound well, pass out of the post and grab steals, Jones is a multi-faceted standout.

8. Chelsea Gray, Las Vegas Aces, age 31 season
2023 stats: 15.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 7.3 APG, 1.4 SPG, 42.1% from three

A dynamic point guard, Gray is going to miss some time early on in the season as she recovers from a foot injury. She had her best shooting season to date in 2023, with an exceptional outside shot, and created a ton of opportunities for teammates. She also remained a positive with getting to the free throw line.

7. Brittney Griner, Phoenix Mercury, age 33 season
2023 stats: 17.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.6 BPG

Griner was shockingly good in her return from Russian prison. She scored efficiently, rebounded well, passed well for a big, and continued denying shots. She did miss 25% of the season, and as she advances into her mid-30s, that might continue to be a problem going forward. Hopefully she can stay on the court.

6. Sabrina Ionescu, New York Liberty, age 26 season
2023 stats: 17.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.0 SPG, 44.8% from three

Ionescu greatly improved her three-point shooting accuracy, finally becoming the sniper that she was expected to be coming into the WNBA. Her passing became less featured with the addition of Courtney Vandersloot, which may have played a part in her improved shooting. 44.8% from three is amazingly high; it won’t be easy to keep it up.

5. Aliyah Boston, Indiana Fever, age 22 season
2023 stats: 14.5 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.3 BPG

Boston had a tremendous rookie season and hopefully will be stepping forward to be even better as a sophomore. She stepped in as a great post player from day one. I’m projecting continued improvement for her all-around, which would really help the Fever have a great 2024.

4. Alyssa Thomas, Connecticut Sun, age 32 season
2023 stats: 15.5 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 7.9 APG, 1.8 SPG

Thomas is just an all-around monster who reasonably could average a triple double with 48 minute-long games. The runner-up in last year’s MVP voting, she defends well, scores well, rebounds well, and creates well for others. She’s just an absolutely great player.

3. Nneka Ogwumike, Seattle Storm, age 33 season
2023 stats: 19.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.5 SPG, 33.9% from three

Nneka is a great big who can do just about everything. She’s not a major passer for the Storm, but she can shoot a little bit from three, she rebounds great, and is a strong scorer.

2. A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces, age 27 season
2023 stats: 22.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, 2.2 BPG

1. Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty, age 29 season
2023 stats: 23.0 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1.6 BPG, 35.5% from three

There’s absolutely no wrong choice for the top player in the league; I favor Stewart slightly just for her diversity on the offensive end with the ability to shoot from three. If both stay healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised by a duel between them from MVP and the league championship.

Top 50 WNBA Players in 2024 – Part One

A few notes:

Players are ranked regardless of projected time to miss if they are expected to play meaningful minutes upon return. That said, players like Elena Della Donne who are expected to not play at all are excluded.

Rookies are included.

50. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, New York Liberty, age 30 season
2023 stats: 12.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.4 APG, 39.2% from three

Laney-Hamilton had her best offensive season to date with an all-time high in effective field goal percentage at 57.4%. She also finished fourth in Defensive Player of the Year voting. If she can stay on the floor – that was an issue in 2022 – she should be a key forward for the Liberty. One downside is that with the depth of that team, minutes come at a premium and that could be an issue for BLH.

49. Aaliyah Edwards, Washington Mystics, age 21 season
rookie season

Retirements and seasons off help push a third rookie into the top 50. The UConn product averaged 17.6 PPG & 9.2 RPG last season. She should also contribute on defense and will hopefully continue to score efficiently. She hopefully will performed at the level of a respectable fourth starter. Getting enough minutes may be difficult in a crowded Mystics front court, especially as a rookie, but there’s a chance she could outperform Stefanie Dolson and Myisha Hines-Allen by season’s end, which would make her the first big off the bench.

48. Kayla McBride, Minnesota Lynx, age 31 season
2023 stats: 14.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.2 SPG

McBride remained a consistent performer last year. She has fallen off from her peak of her All-Star seasons in Las Vegas, but still adds a solid hand. Her three point shooting percentage has fallen for two straight seasons, though, and she is not a force on the board.

47. Natasha Cloud, Phoenix Mercury, age 32 season
2023 stats: 12.7 PPG, 6.2 APG, 3.7 RPG, 1.1 SPG

Cloud remains a solid guard, especially when it comes to distributing the ball. Her biggest flaw is she cannot shoot well – she hasn’t hit more than 1/3 of her threes since 2018, and can’t make shots outside of 16 feet.

46. Azura Stevens, Los Angeles Sparks, age 28 season
2023 stats: 10.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG

For the first time in her career (excluding 2020), Stevens started most of her games. Her scoring efficiency plummeted, but her rebounding jumped up to compensate. When she returns – hopefully in late June – she should be slotted right back into major minutes for the Sparks’ front court, even with the arrival of Cameron Brink.

45. Cameron Brink, Los Angeles Sparks, age 22 season
rookie

Brink would have been the #1 pick in a normal draft, but Caitlyn Clark isn’t a normal prospect. Brink’s rate stats in college were just as impressive as Clark’s but Cameron’s overall value numbers were much lower due to just playing a lot less time. She only averaged 25.5 MPG as a senior. That might be due to the general uncompetitiveness of most of Stanford’s games, but she also struggled with foul trouble as a senior, averaging 2.8 per game. In 7 of the last 9 games of the season, she recorded 4 or 5 fouls. Staying on the court is a skill, and one that Brink will have to develop as a pro. This could easily be too pessimistic of a view of her as a rookie, though – if she hopped up 10 or 15 spots in this list, I wouldn’t be too shocked.

44. Dorka Juhász, Minnesota Lynx, age 24 season
2023 stats: 6.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.6 APG

Juhász impressed as a rookie with solid scoring efficiency combined with good rebounding & playmaking. I’m projecting a step up in her second season to get her here, which she should be capable of. She could end up being a great steal for the Lynx front office as the 16th pick of last year’s draft. She will be late showing up this year, and due to it only being her second season she is exempt from the prioritization rule.

43. Diamond Miller, Minnesota Lynx, age 23 season
2023 stats: 12.1 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.5 APG

Speaking of promising step ups for young Lynx players: Miller acquitted herself quite well as a rookie. One hopes she can bump up the scoring efficiency (especially from 3 – 30.7% on 3.2 tries a game isn’t killing it), and if she can show herself to be more of a creator, she can slide over to the 1 for more playing time with the exit of Lindsay Allen.

42. Diana Taurasi, Phoenix Mercury, age 42 season
2023 stats: 16.0 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.6 APG

It’s beyond question that Taurasi is not what she was as a player even two years ago. But she’s still a strong scorer, even if it’s not what she could do at her peak. She’s a good play creator, even if it’s not what she could do at her peak. But if you focus on what she can bring to the table, she’s still a top 50 player today. Barring the wheels completely falling off, she should still be a reasonably productive player.

41. NaLyssa Smith, Indiana Fever, age 23 season
2023 stats: 15.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.4 APG

Smith took a step forward in 2023, improving her scoring efficiency while also upping her usage rate, which is hard to do. The former #1 pick is still very young, so another step forward is not out of the question. Year three improvements don’t seem to be as drastic in general in the W as those that you see in year two, but the possibility could be that she pairs perfectly with Boston & Clark.

40. Courtney Williams, Minnesota Lynx, age 30 season
2023 stats: 10.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 6.3 APG

Williams is on her fourth franchise in four seasons, which is a good encapsulation of where she is in the league – a solid player who’s not a game breaker. Last year, she had career bests in effective field goal percentage and assist percentage. Turnovers popped up significantly, but if she can tamp those down and show that hitting 44.3% of her threes was not a fluke, she could prove herself even better than I expected.

39. Megan Gustafson, Las Vegas Aces, age 27 season
2023 stats: 7.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 0.7 APG

This could well be too optimistic. Gustafson got her best shot in the WNBA last season, on a dreadful Phoenix Mercury team, and delivered a PER just over 20 in 514 minutes. That was shockingly good enough to put her second on the squad among players with 300+ minutes, behind only Griner. What opportunity Gustafson will receive in Vegas remains to be seen – I still don’t know why Brianna Turner received twice as many minutes in Arizona that Gustafson, and it’s not like Gustafson is without flaw – she doesn’t get to the line and she isn’t a great rebounder. But she can score, and that’s got to get her some floor time somewhere. It just might not happen on a title contending team.u

38. Shakira Austin, Washington Mystics, age 23 season
2023 stats: 10.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 0.9 APG

Austin was hampered by injury in 2023, missing half the season, but showed flashes of being a quality starting center in the league. If she can continue to improve, she should be able to establish herself as such on a rebuilding Washington squad.

37. Marina Mabrey, Chicago Sky, age 27 season
2023 stats: 15.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.6 APG, 39.0% from 3

Mabrey should not have been acquired at such a steep price, but she is a solid guard who will probably be the most polished scorer on a Chicago Sky team that is 100% in rebuild mode. She won’t do it too often because she shoots so many threes, but she has been quietly improving her free throw rate year over year, which is a nice little addition to her game.

36. Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Connecticut Sun, age 23 season
2023 stats: 4.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 0.6 APG

Her overall numbers aren’t going to blow anyone away since she’s the fourth big on a playoff team, but Nelson-Ododa improved across the board in her sophomore season. If she gets the chance, I think she’d really impress some people in 2024, but there’s also a chance she gets stuck with another sub-600 minute season.

35. Kalani Brown, Dallas Wings, age 27 season
2023 stats: 7.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.0 APG, 62.9% eFG%

The former #7 pick finally got a reliable role in the league four years after she was drafted, and she delivered a fine performance as a back up for the Wings. She was a very efficient scorer inside, she got to the line at a great rate and hit 80.2% of the freebies, and she did decent rebounding and shot blocking. There’s an argument she’s the third best big for the Wings. There’s always the chance that last year was an illusion, but that’s rare than the opposite – just being good.

34. Maddy Siegrist, Dallas Wings, age 24 season
2023 stats: 3.7 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 0.2 APG

Those raw numbers don’t pop off the page at all, but her 319 minutes did show solid rate numbers – a 19.2 PER, .210 WS per 48 minutes, a 58.5% effective field goal percentage. She took 29 free throws vs. 112 field goals, which is a reasonable rate. With Satou Sabally missing significant time, Siegrist might have a perfect opportunity in her sophomore year to flex her skills.

33. Kelsey Mitchell, Indiana Fever, age 28 season
2023 stats: 18.2 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 3.1 APG, 39.8% from three

We know what Kelsey Mitchell is as much as any player in the WNBA: an efficient scorer who can hit threes and isn’t shy about taking them who can also get some assists and an occasional steal as well as a couple trips to the three throw line. She won’t be the top guard for Indiana for very much longer at all, but she will still contribute well to that team and should be another beneficiary of what Caitlin Clark brings to the table.

32. Jordin Canada, Los Angeles Sparks, age 28 season
2023 stats: 13.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 6.0 APG, 2.3 SPG, 33.3% from three

Canada finally became a capable three point shooter and had her best scoring season as a pro, which in turn gave her her best pro season period. She remains a great passer and defender, but this added dimension finally makes her a complete guard. Let’s just hope it wasn’t a one off.

31. Kahleah Copper, Phoenix Mercury, age 29 season
2023 stats: 18.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.0 APG, 40.4% from three

Copper was a rare bright spot on a substandard Chicago squad last year, and her reward was a trade to the worst team in the league. She might be able to help them sneak into the last spot in the playoffs. She’s continued to improve her outside shooting, taking and making more each year since 2021. Her ability to get to the free throw line is still there, too, and she gets a few assists without turning the ball over much. Very solid.

30. Alanna Smith, Minnesota Lynx, age 27 season
2023 stats: 9.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.8 APG, 29.4% from three

The former #8 overall pick finally got some major run with last year’s Chicago Sky squad – her 1007 minutes played eclipsed the 663 she racked up in the four previous seasons combined. She showed good interior scoring, an ability to get to the line (though it’d be great to improve the make rate there), and a nice passing touch. Minnesota has a crowded front court, so it’s reasonable to have some concerns about just how much playing time Alanna will get, but one has to figure she won’t be easily forgotten after last year’s performance.

29. Elizabeth Williams, Chicago Sky, age 31 season
2023 stats: 9.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.5 BPG

Williams continues to be a good interior defender with decent offensive efficiency. She did her best job yet last year at racking up assists and did it while keeping turnovers low, which was a nice feather in her cap.

28. Ariel Atkins, Washington Mystics, age 27 season
2023 stats: 11.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.2 SPG

Atkins’ rate stats have been nearly flat since she came into the WNBA, but they dipped slightly and she missed more than 25% of the season. I figure she’s more likely to return to form than not, but there’s still a little caution to show here.

27. Rhyne Howard, Atlanta Dream, age 24 season
2023 stats: 17.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.3 SPG, 35.2% from three

Howard’s rate numbers were flat from last season, so we didn’t see that sophomore bump that so many WNBA players benefit from. Maybe that’s setting expectations too high – she was an All-Star again and Atlanta gained five wins year over year. But I still would like to see her be more efficient with scoring and get to the line more often.

26. Natasha Howard, Dallas Wings, age 32 season
2023 stats: 16.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.2 BPG

Howard remains a diverse player who can defend, rebound, and score. Her scoring and rebounding efficiency numbers have dropped for three straight years, though, so there are some cautionary signs here. I don’t think we’re going to have to worry about the wheels falling off any time soon, and she’s still a very good player. That Devereaux Peters trade is still awful eight years later.

2024 WNBA Season Predictions

Title Favorites

1. Las Vegas Aces

They have arguably the best player in the league with A’ja Wilson. Emma Cannon, who might not start for them, arguably could start on every other team in the league. 7-10 could be a bit stronger, but Sydney Colson, Dyaisha Fair, Alysha Clark, & Kiah Stokes are probably better than anyone else in those spots in the league except for maybe Connecticut. It’d take a Wilson injury to knock them out of the top two spots in the league.

The #1 Contenders

2. New York Liberty

The Liberty are similar on paper to the Aces, but with a slightly weaker starting five and a slightly weaker bench. Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, & Jonquel Jones is a great top three. Depth is a bit of an issue here, with questions around the availability of Kennedy Burke and Nyara Sabally.

Upset Hunters

3. Seattle Storm

This is a gamble of a pick, but if Nneka Ogwumike holds up & Skylar Diggins-Smith bounces back from missing last year, they could pair well with Jewell Loyd & Ezi Magbegor to reverse last year’s 11-29 record.

4. Dallas Wings

Satou Sabally missing half this year casts doubt here, but if she can produce immediately on return and they can get more quality minutes out of Maddy Siegrist, Teaira McCowan, and Kalani Brown, they should have enough help for Natasha Howard & Arike Ogunbowale. Injuries are a concern – the deep bench looks very unproven.

Playoff Spot Favorites

5. Indiana Fever

Caitlin Clark is obviously going to face a difficult transition in her rookie season, but she’s coming off one of the best individual college seasons in recent memory. The pairing with Aliyah Boston should be a hard problem to solve for opposing defenses, and Kelsey Mitchell and NaLyssa Smith should be more than capable as 3rd & 4th starters.

6. Connecticut Sun

No Brionna Jones for a large chunk of the season hurts (and is enough to push the Sun behind Indiana). Will Alyssa Thomas & DeWanna Bonner be sufficient to push the team early on? Once you get to spot four on the roster, things fall off from the teams ahead of them.

7. Minnesota Lynx

Napheesa Collier is the truth, but there’s a lot of pressure on her to be this team’s engine. You’d hope for a better number two than Alanna Smith or Courtney Williams – both of whom are solid starters, but asking to be the second best player on a playoff team is a bit much. A bench of rookie Alissa Pili, Diamond Miller, Natisha Hiedeman, and whatever Sika Koné can bring won’t be pacing the league.

Playoff Hopefuls

8. Atlanta Dream

The top four – Rhyne Howard, Cheynne Parker, Allisha Gray, and Jordin Canada – will acquit themselves just fine. The big question about just how serious the Dream are about repeating their playoff appearance will be their depth. Tina Charles missed all of last year and fell off hard from her previous high levels of play in 2022. Aerial Powers plummeted down the Lynx depth chart in 2023.

9. Phoenix Mercury

Surely a team with Brittney Griner can’t be the worst team in the league again. But she missed a quarter of the season last year and is getting old by the standards of basketball. Speaking of, Diana Taurasi missed 14 games last year and is in uncharted territory as she heads into her age 42 season. They bet big on Kahleah Copper being the answer, and she will provide a solid presence in the starting 5, but they might really wish they got Kamilla Cardoso instead. Sug Sutton’s shooting was brutal last year.

Waiting on the Draft

10. Washington Mystics

Elena Delle Donne sitting out this year is going to be brutal on the Mystics. EDD is good enough she should have put Washington above the Dream, if not the Lynx, and had the Mystics back in playoff contention. Without her, this is a roster built around Brittney Sykes, Ariel Atkins, and Shakira Austin. That’s a top three that just doesn’t stack up, and their bench has an argument to be the worst second unit in the league.

11. Chicago Sky

Kamilla Cardoso & Angel Reese could be the front court of the future, but it isn’t going to be it for the present. Marina Mabrey did not pan out the way anyone could have hoped after the haul given up for her. When Elizabeth Williams is looking to be your team MVP, you’re not in a great place.

12. Los Angeles Sparks

Even if Cameron Brink outplays Caitlin Clark, this is still a thin team on paper. Lexie Brown looked good in the quarter of 2023 she played, but if the starting five of this team includes her, Layshia Clarendon, Azura Stevens, and Stephanie Talbot, you’re already betting on Paige Bueckers arriving next season.

Analyzing the 2020 Wrestling Observer Newsletter Hall of Fame Using Award Shares

Voting for the Wrestling Observer Newsletter Hall of Fame has opened, with the voting expected to close in November. Voting is rarely discussed in depth by the voters, and any kind of statistical analysis specific to this Hall of Fame or professional wrestling in general is rarely, if ever, done.

You can look at the data I used for this here.

An award share is a statistical measure used to compare the careers of players. It’s often used as a rule of thumb to evaluate a player’s candidacy for his or her sport’s hall of fame.

It’s calculated by taking the number of points in a voting a candidate received and dividing it by the maximum number of points any one person could receive in the voting for an award – the number of points awarded for a first place vote, multiplied by the number of ballots cast. If a candidate were to receive all of the first place votes cast for an award, that person would receive a 1.0 for that year’s voting. Since awards of this nature are rarely given unanimously, the winner of an award often does not get a full 1.0 share.

In 2019, Giannis Antetokounmpo won the NBA MVP. He received 941 points. There were 101 ballots cast, with first place on a ballot being worth ten points. So, Giannis’ MVP share for the 2018-19 season would be 941/(101*10), or 0.932.

The Wrestling Observer Newsletter (WON) awards are voted upon by subscribers to the Newsletter, primarily written by Dave Meltzer. Wrestling is unique, compared with MLB and the NBA, due to the presence of multiple promotions and the lack of a single oversight body. As such, there’s very few avenues for “real” awards that cover the global wrestling scene.

Additionally, the presence of a professional wrestling hall of fame is complicated by the multitude of wrestling promotions and, often, their temporary existence. The Wrestling Observer Newsletter Hall of Fame fills this gap. Rather than being voted on by fans, it’s voted on by historians, journalists, and current and former performers themselves. Voters are asked to restrict themselves to areas of the world that they are familiar with, so a lack of knowledge in (say) lucha libre will not negatively impact the candidacy of those primarily famous for their work in Mexico.

The WON awards include a number of different voting areas. I’ve chosen to focus on three: the Wrestler of the Year award (also known as the Lou Thesz/Ric Flair award), the Most Outstanding Wrestler, and the Tag Team of the Year. The third award is clear in what it’s meant for. Tag teams are often not the central point of a promotion, although there have been historical exceptions, but they can on occasion be difference makers in the industry. The Thesz/Flair award is meant to award a wrestler for being the best in the combination of match quality and importance at the box office – it’s equivalent to a MVP award that considers all aspect of the industry. The Most Outstanding award focuses on match quality, which is an important aspect of the industry but it is not the only one.

Generally speaking, the WON Hall of Fame considers “length of time in the industry, historical significance, ability to attract viewers, and wrestling ability.” Eligibility requires 15 years in the business or an age of 35 or up with 10 years in the business. 60% of the votes cast from those voting for the wrestler’s geographic region is required for induction.

Wrestler of the Year

Of the top 25 wrestlers in award shares for Wrestler of the Year, 21 have been inducted in the Hall of Fame. Of the top 50, 39 have been inducted, with a further two of them not being pro-wrestlers (at one point, MMA fighters were folded into the wrestling balloting). This indicates to me that a de facto cut off for a strong correlation between a high finish in win shares and being inducted into the Hall of Fame is near fiftieth place all-time.

Of the wrestlers who are not in the Hall of Fame but they finished in the top 50 of award shares for this award:

Kazuchika Okada is fourth all-time in award shares at 3.92, but is only 33 at this point. All three above him in win shares are inducted, and 67 acts below him have been voted in. He will not be eligible for inclusion on the ballot until 2023. He has been the most important wrestler for New Japan Pro Wrestling for the better part of the past decade. It’s hard to imagine he won’t finish at least second in this category once his career is over.
Kenny Omega is 14^th all-time in award shares at 1.58. 11 of the 12 acts above him in win shares have been inducted, with 59 inductees below him. He didn’t receive significant votes in 2019, though his 2020 outlook is certainly stronger, especially depending on how the last quarter of the year goes for his booking. He received 53% percent of the vote in the 2019 Hall of Fame balloting. I expect he’ll get in one day, though being pushed as a major part of AEW’s roster rather than (at times) a secondary act will be necessary to help convince those who are on the fence. I expect that to happen in the next year with a storyline of some sort with Hangman Page.
CM Punk is 16^th all-time in award shares at 1.41, placing him directly below Kurt Angle and above Jushin Liger. He has been retired as a wrestler for almost six years now, after walking out on WWE, and he seems highly unlikely to return to the ring at any point. He finished at 20% of the vote in the ’19 Hall of Fame voting. His appeal is limited by the fact that he only spent about eight years on the WWE main roster, with only about six of those years as a main eventer. Despite his four-year run in Ring of Honor helping a highly successful alternative independent company to WWE, voters have given that run little credit; I personally think it’s received too little credit.
Mistico (aka WWE’s first Sin Cara, aka the current Caristico in CMLL) is 25^th all-time in award shares at 0.85. This places him directly below Akira Maeda and Chris Benoit. Mistico is a very interesting case, in that before joining WWE he was among the most popular acts in lucha libre history in terms of peak popularity. His WWE run was an abject failure, though, and while he’s back to being a main eventer in CMLL, he’s not nearly the draw he once was. His mixed track record has left him with just 25% of the vote on the 2019 ballot. If he continues to rebuild his standing in Mexico, he could contend, but it looks like it’ll be years before that happens. The 2019 voting is certainly not encouraging for his chances, and CMLL being shutdown for most of this year won’t help.
Edge is 30^th all-time in award shares at 0.75, placing him one spot above Triple H and one below Akira Hokuto (both of whom are in the Hall). Edge dropped slightly, from 50% to 49%, in the 2019 balloting. He’s finished above 36% the last nine years, but his 2018 total of 50% is his peak. Edge’s career ended early after a devastating neck injury, leaving him with about eight years as a main eventer in WWE. The impact of his main eventer run, and his tag team work with Christian earlier in his career, seems undervalued. However, his return this year with Randy Orton did not seem to make a significant difference in business and was cut short by an unfortunate injury. 2020 did not help his case, and may have hurt it.
Samoa Joe is 32^nd all-time in award shares at 0.72, which puts him above Ted DiBiase and right below Triple H. Samoa Joe’s resume is based entirely on his work in secondary U.S. promotions TNA & RoH. He had a strong two-year run in NXT, but since has spent less than four years on the WWE main roster, where he is not featured as a top act with regularity. He’s spent more of the past year or so as an announcer than as a wrestler.
Sabu is 36^th all-time in award shares at 0.51, placing him directly below Bruiser Brody and above Terry Funk (both of whose careers largely pre-date the Observer awards). Sabu will not get in – the entirety of his win shares come from 1994 and 1995, with most of that coming from 1994 where he narrowly finished behind Toshiaki Kawada. Sabu stands basically no chance of getting inducted, as his ECW career was imperfect and he fell off the Hall of Fame ballot in 2011 after receiving less than 10% of the vote. This is the first case where a high finish in this statistic certainly does not correlate with a likelihood of election.
Tetsuya Naito is 38^th all-time in award shares at 0.50, right between Funk and Genichiro Tenryu. Naito has been one of the most popular wrestlers in New Japan for several years now, and won their top two championships in their 2020 Wrestle Kingdom weekend events. I don’t expect a big boost from his 2019, but he started 2020 strongly and is now back on top. Despite all of this, his matches haven’t been extremely impressive and his best in-ring days seem to largely be behind him. A strong run as champion should shore up his candidacy, as he only received 16% of the vote in 2019. It might take a little bit for people to realize how talented and popular Naito was in a time of New Japan having a ridiculously stacked roster.
Randy Orton is 40^th all-time in win shares at 0.46, behind Tenryu and ahead of Eddie Guerrero. Orton will be a test case of what the value is of being a WWE main eventer in the 2010s outside of John Cena. He was heavily featured for the entirety of the decade when healthy, but he was not a notable vote getter in the Thesz/Flair award after 2011. Since then, he’s held one of their world championships four times but did not receive much acclaim for those runs. He also won worst feud and worst match of the 2017 Observer awards. Orton has stagnated in the voting, dropping to 23% in 2019 from his high in 2018 with 35%. Without a late career resurgence, Orton seems unlikely to get in until it’s been longer enough for people to forget how mediocre some of his more recent runs. His 2020 run seems to be relatively strong within WWE, but the company itself is still struggling and now has major competition.
Bob Sapp (45^th all-time) and Tito Ortiz (49^th) finished highly during the period before MMA had their own awards.
Will Ospreay has cracked the top 50, coming up to 49^th after finishing third in this category in 2019. It’s very early for him, but if he can maintain his performances from last calendar year, he’ll be a shoe-in. I don’t think 2020 will help him a whole lot, but I am writing this having only watched one night of the G1. A super strong performance can give him a boost. He’s just 27, so there’s a lot of time left for him to accomplish things.

At this point, the top finishers who aren’t in the Hall in win shares are Naruki Doi, Great Sasuke, Davey Richards, Takashi Sugiura, Masato Yoshino, and Satoshi Kojima. Doi, Richards, Sugiura, and Yoshino have never been on the ballot; Sasuke was last on in 2004; and Kojima only received 13% of the vote for his tag team with Hiroyoshi Tenzan.

Most Outstanding Wrestler

This award is intended to solely recognize in-ring performance. Of the top ten recipients of win shares in this category, nine are in the Observer Hall; of the top 25, 16; of the top 50, 28. There’s a weaker correlation between this award and induction compared with the Thesz/Flair award. Of the top 40 finishers in win shares, 60% of them have been inducted.

Here are the top finishers in MVP shares that are not yet inducted into the Observer Hall of Fame:

Kazuchika Okada, 6^th all-time with 2.89 shares, putting him between Jushin Liger and Hiroshi Tanahashi. His case is laid out above.
Kenny Omega, 12^th all-time with 1.72 shares, finishing between Shawn Michaels and Toshiaki Kawada.
Davey Richards, 15^th all-time with 1.46 shares, finishing behind Manami Toyota and above KENTA. Richards is the first name on this list that seems unlikely to be inducted. His shares come from high finishes in 2009-2011 carried by his work in Ring of Honor and New Japan. He hasn’t sniffed significant support since 2012.
KENTA, 16^th all-time with 1.45 shares, behind Richards and above Eddie Guerrero. Unlike Richards, he has a chance – albeit an outside chance – of getting in. Before the outbreak, he was getting a pretty big push in New Japan. It probably will take him being one of the top two or three names in New Japan to have his case helped out, but the depth in this company is so stacked and KENTA is now 39. It doesn’t look great for him.
Will Ospreay, 18^th all-time with 1.28 shares.
Samoa Joe, 19^th all-time with 1.26 shares.
Tomohiro Ishii, 22^nd all-time with 0.88 shares. Ishii’s case is built entirely on his in-ring performances. He’s never been a main eventer in a major company, but he’s been among the very best G1 performers – and, by extension, one of the best in-ring performers – for almost a decade.
Shinjiro Otani, 21^st all-time with 0.87 shares. His career as a difference maker has largely been over for almost two decades, and he’s not even on the current ballot. There’s a case here for him based off of in-ring work, but he seems to largely be overlooked. I think that’s mianly because the junior heavyweights were never pushed as a key act in New Japan during his peak with them.
Koji Kanemoto, 24^th all-time with 0.84 shares. His case is very similar to Otani’s. If one gets in, the other should. He also isn’t even on the ballot.
Kota Ibushi, 25^th all-time with 0.81 shares.
Owen Hart, 26^th all-time with 0.76 shares. Hart’s votes in this category are from the 80s. He was never pushed as a key star outside of a short period in the WWF during his great feud with Bret. Owen’s hypothetical career in the WWF of the early 2000s is very interesting, given his in-ring abilities and the changes that were happening to WWF’s product. He wouldn’t have even been 40 until 2005. Other Hall of Fames do have cases of giving projected credit to athletes who died during their career – look at the baseball Hall of Fame and Addie Joss, Roberto Clemente, Ed Delahanty, and Ross Youngs.
Finn Balor/Prince Devitt, 29^th all-time with 0.73 shares. He has a chance if WWE gets behind him, or he goes to AEW or NJPW and is a difference maker. He is 39, but he looks like he could easily work at a top level for another five years or so.
Sabu, 33^rd all-time with 0.57 shares. His case is mentioned above.
Naomichi Marufuji, 34^th all-time with 0.54 shares. His commitment to NOAH and its relatively small status is probably why he won’t get a real shot.
Jun Akiyama, 38^th all-time with 0.47 shares. Akiyama is very much like Marufuji, except Akiyama is older (50 versus Marufuji’s 41). He has a strong case, but suffers from being compared with Misawa and Kobashi.
Nigel McGuinness, 39^th all-time with 0.464 shares. His in-ring career is done, and his key work was basically in Ring of Honor, which is not given credit among HoF voters.
Chris Hero, 41^st all-time with 0.459 shares. Unless he has a late career resurgence, he’s another one that is not going to get in.
Satoshi Kojima, 43^rd all-time with 0.4149 shares. He’s currently on the ballot, primarily for his tag team with Hiroyoshi Tenzan, but I think that hurts both of their chances. Both are important enough for their complete careers that they should be considered individually, and I think not limiting them to their tag accomplishments – which I think some voters are doing – would boost their candidacy. He’s not going to boost his candidacy any more at this point.
Shingo Takagi, 44^th all-time with 0.4143 shares. It looked like his candidacy was done for awhile, but his run in New Japan has been a revelation. He’ll probably need more of a push to make a dent in the voting – the Ishii path into the Hall by being a great worker treated like a second tier star is very narrow.
CM Punk, 45^th all-time with 0.38 shares.
Sami Zayn, 46^th all-time with 0.37 shares. He’s not going to get the push necessary to change his career, barring a major change in situation.
Great Sasuke, 48^th all-time with 0.32 shares. As said above, he hasn’t been on the ballot since 2004. He just doesn’t seem to be taken seriously as a candidate.
Mr. Perfect Curt Hennig, 49^th all-time with 0.31 shares. His peak was probably too short, and he was not pushed as a major star after the early 90s.

Tag Team of the Year

I won’t spend as much time talking about this category, since there are fewer tag teams inducted into the Hall.

The Young Bucks, 1^st all-time with 5.38 shares. The Bucks’ lead in this category is astonishing. Not only do they have the credibility of consistently great matches, they helped former All Elite Wrestling, which has turned out to be the first major alternative US promotion in the U.S. since WCW (they’ve certainly already accomplished more than TNA did at their peak). This will irritate the Jim Cornette voting block, but I can’t fathom a legitimate argument that they don’t deserve a spot.
The Briscoes, 2^nd all-time with 2.19 shares. Their entire career is in RoH. Jay’s had two RoH World Championship runs. It feels like they have no chance of getting inducted due to where they’ve spent their career.
Bobby Eaton and Stan Lane, 3^rd all-time with 2.12 shares. Inducted under the Midnight Express.
The Steiner Brothers, 4^th all-time with 2.06 shares. I’m shocked they’ve never received serious consideration – they have been on the ballot for three years, the last being in 2007; and they only broke 10 percent once. They were major draws in Japan and did well in the U.S. Scott Steiner also has some success as a singles star, though the majority of that came as WCW was dying.
Hawk and Animal, 5^th all-time with 2.02 shares. Inducted.
Bobby Eaton and Dennis Condrey, 6^th all-time with 1.60 shares. Inducted under the Midnight Express.
KENTA & Naomichi Marufuji, 7^th all-time with 1.59 shares. They had a short peak as a team, but they won the Tag Team award twice and finished a strong second once. Those were the only three years they received any votes, though. They shouldn’t get in as a tag, but maybe considering this tag run would help their individual candidacy.
Toshiaki Kawada & Akira Taue, 8^th all-time with 1.40 shares. Kawada has been inducted. Taue is on the ballot. They had a five-year run getting votes in this category. This is a point in Taue’s favor.
Ultimo Guerrero & Rey Bucanero, 9^th all-time with 1.39 shares. Guerrero has been inducted; Rey Bucanero has not. I don’t know enough about Bucanero’s candidacy to make a strong assessment here, but WON Award voting has largely overlooked lucha libre. This team has been on the ballot twice, both times receiving less than 10% of the vote. Bucanero’s WON Awards have all been tied to this tag team.
Bobby Fish & Kyle O’Reilly, 10^th all-time with 1.29 shares. Despite their strong performances, they feel like they have no chance of getting in as a unit. They’ve never been pushed as a main event group, with their strongest sustained push being in NXT as part of the Undisputed Era where they have been support to Adam Cole.

Filtered Nitty Gritty Data – 3/11

I took the NCAA’s Nitty Gritty data they posted here and filtered it down to the top 100 teams in RPI, plus either actual or projected automatic qualifiers. I’ll try to keep this updated as best as I can for the rest of the week.

You can use this to try to put together your own bracketology attempts.

ncaa selection data ncaaw 2020 Download

FOWLES scores for the week of 2/23

It’s been awhile since I’ve done these. This is for the upcoming week of games.

The higher the score, the more exciting the game will hopefully be.

Team 1	Team 2	Date	Score
Western Illinois	Denver	February 29, 2020	82.9
Duke	Virginia Tech	February 27, 2020	80.2
California Baptist	Seattle	February 29, 2020	80
Akron	Miami (Ohio)	February 29, 2020	78.9
Howard	Norfolk State	February 29, 2020	78.7
Butler	Saint John`s	February 28, 2020	78.6
Sam Houston State	Abilene Christian	February 26, 2020	78.5
Southern Mississippi	UTEP	February 29, 2020	78.4
Northern Illinois	Western Michigan	February 29, 2020	78.4
Western Illinois	Oral Roberts	February 27, 2020	78.3
Tennessee Tech	Jacksonville State	February 29, 2020	78.2
Texas	Texas Christian	February 26, 2020	78.2
Oral Roberts	Denver	February 23, 2020	78.1
Delaware	Towson	February 28, 2020	78
Alcorn State	Alabama State	February 24, 2020	77.9
New Orleans	Nicholls State	February 29, 2020	77.9
Eastern Michigan	Northern Illinois	February 26, 2020	77.9
California Baptist	Utah Valley	February 26, 2020	77.7
Kansas	Oklahoma	February 26, 2020	77.7
Morehead State	Austin Peay	February 27, 2020	77.6
Towson	Northeastern	February 23, 2020	77.6
Oregon	Stanford	February 24, 2020	77.4
Texas Tech	Oklahoma State	February 26, 2020	77.3
Syracuse	Notre Dame	February 23, 2020	77.3
Northern Arizona	Montana	February 27, 2020	77.2
Winthrop	Longwood	February 25, 2020	77.2
Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	February 29, 2020	77.1
West Virginia	Iowa State	February 29, 2020	77.1
Pepperdine	San Diego	February 29, 2020	76.9
Iowa State	Kansas State	February 26, 2020	76.9
La Salle	George Mason	February 29, 2020	76.8
Delaware State	Maryland-Eastern Shore	February 29, 2020	76.7
Miami (Ohio)	Buffalo	February 26, 2020	76.6
Utah	Southern California	February 28, 2020	76.6
Southern Illinois	Bradley	February 27, 2020	76.4
San Jose State	UNLV	February 27, 2020	76.2
Fairfield	Manhattan	February 29, 2020	76.2
UNC Greensboro	Samford	February 27, 2020	76.1
Long Beach State	Cal State Northridge	February 27, 2020	76
William & Mary	Delaware	February 23, 2020	76
Merrimack	Mount Saint Mary`s	February 23, 2020	75.8
Auburn	Missouri	February 27, 2020	75.7
McNeese State	Houston Baptist	February 29, 2020	75.7
Wagner	Saint Francis (NY)	February 23, 2020	75.6
Northwestern	Ohio State	February 25, 2020	75.6
Michigan	Michigan State	February 23, 2020	75.6
Georgetown	Providence	February 28, 2020	75.6
Ohio State	Purdue	February 29, 2020	75.4
Cal State Bakersfield	Texas-Rio Grande Valley	February 27, 2020	75.4
Cleveland State	Milwaukee	February 29, 2020	75.4
Austin Peay	Murray State	February 29, 2020	75.4
Toledo	Ball State	February 26, 2020	75.4
Fordham	Duquesne	February 25, 2020	75.2
Green Bay	IUPUI	February 23, 2020	75.1
Fresno State	Wyoming	February 27, 2020	75.1
Massachusetts-Lowell	Vermont	February 29, 2020	75.1
Siena	Monmouth	February 27, 2020	75.1
North Texas	Marshall	February 29, 2020	75
Iona	Siena	February 29, 2020	75
North Carolina Central	South Carolina State	February 29, 2020	74.8
Toledo	Eastern Michigan	February 29, 2020	74.8
Miami (Fla.)	Boston College	February 23, 2020	74.8
Yale	Penn	February 28, 2020	74.8
San Diego State	Colorado State	February 24, 2020	74.6
Youngstown State	Milwaukee	February 27, 2020	74.6
Villanova	Creighton	February 28, 2020	74.5
Long Beach State	UC Santa Barbara	February 29, 2020	74.4
Holy Cross	American	February 29, 2020	74.4
Grand Canyon	Texas-Rio Grande Valley	February 29, 2020	74.3
UC Davis	Hawaii	February 23, 2020	74.2
Marist	Quinnipiac	February 29, 2020	74.2
Southeast Missouri State	Tennessee-Martin	February 29, 2020	74.2
Massachusetts-Lowell	Albany	February 26, 2020	74.2
Drexel	James Madison	February 28, 2020	74.2
UNC Asheville	Gardner-Webb	February 25, 2020	74.1
South Carolina State	Florida A&M	February 24, 2020	74.1
Saint Francis (NY)	Sacred Heart	February 29, 2020	74
Akron	Kent State	February 26, 2020	74
Lehigh	Boston University	February 26, 2020	73.9
Bryant	Sacred Heart	February 23, 2020	73.9
Richmond	George Washington	February 29, 2020	73.9
Rhode Island	Massachusetts	February 29, 2020	73.8
Jacksonville	Stetson	February 29, 2020	73.7
Wagner	Long Island	February 29, 2020	73.7
Idaho State	Portland State	February 27, 2020	73.6
Nevada	San Diego State	February 27, 2020	73.6
Mount Saint Mary`s	Saint Francis (PA)	February 29, 2020	73.5
Louisiana-Lafayette	Appalachian State	February 27, 2020	73.5
Fairleigh Dickinson	Bryant	February 29, 2020	73.5
North Dakota State	North Dakota	February 23, 2020	73.5
Wichita State	Tulsa	February 23, 2020	73.4
Massachusetts	Saint Joseph`s	February 26, 2020	73.4
Grand Canyon	New Mexico State	February 27, 2020	73.4
Cal State Bakersfield	New Mexico State	February 29, 2020	73.3
Oklahoma State	Kansas	February 29, 2020	73.3
Wofford	Furman	February 29, 2020	73.2
Buffalo	Ohio	February 29, 2020	73.2
Davidson	La Salle	February 26, 2020	73.2
Kennesaw State	North Alabama	February 24, 2020	73.2
Tulane	East Carolina	February 29, 2020	73.1
College of Charleston	UNC Wilmington	February 23, 2020	73
Eastern Kentucky	Murray State	February 27, 2020	73
Eastern Illinois	Southeast Missouri State	February 27, 2020	72.9
UNC Greensboro	Mercer	February 29, 2020	72.9
Southern California	Washington State	February 23, 2020	72.8
Georgia State	Texas State	February 29, 2020	72.7
Texas Tech	Iowa State	February 23, 2020	72.7
Stanford	Arizona	February 28, 2020	72.6
Oklahoma State	Texas Christian	February 23, 2020	72.6
Cal State Fullerton	UC Riverside	February 27, 2020	72.6
Navy	Loyola Maryland	February 26, 2020	72.6
Columbia	Harvard	February 28, 2020	72.4
South Carolina	Kentucky	February 23, 2020	72.3
Omaha	North Dakota State	February 29, 2020	72.2
Cornell	Dartmouth	February 28, 2020	72.2
Nebraska	Indiana	February 27, 2020	72
Oklahoma	Texas	February 29, 2020	72
Arkansas-Pine Bluff	Grambling	February 29, 2020	72
Troy	South Alabama	February 29, 2020	71.9
Alabama A&M	Texas Southern	February 29, 2020	71.9
Northern Arizona	Montana State	February 29, 2020	71.9
North Florida	Liberty	February 24, 2020	71.9
Elon	William & Mary	February 28, 2020	71.8
Southern Utah	Idaho	February 29, 2020	71.8
Wyoming	Nevada	February 24, 2020	71.8
Cal State Northridge	Cal Poly	February 29, 2020	71.7
Southern	Alabama A&M	February 24, 2020	71.7
Syracuse	North Carolina State	February 27, 2020	71.7
Colorado State	Air Force	February 27, 2020	71.7
North Carolina	Wake Forest	February 23, 2020	71.6
Duke	North Carolina State	February 24, 2020	71.6
Northern Colorado	Idaho	February 27, 2020	71.5
Hofstra	College of Charleston	February 28, 2020	71.5
Rhode Island	George Washington	February 25, 2020	71.5
Virginia	Virginia Tech	February 23, 2020	71.4
Sacramento State	Montana	February 29, 2020	71.2
Georgia	LSU	February 23, 2020	71.2
Niagara	Canisius	February 24, 2020	71.2
Hawaii	UC Irvine	February 27, 2020	71.1
Penn	Princeton	February 25, 2020	71
Richmond	Saint Bonaventure	February 23, 2020	71
Santa Clara	Saint Mary`s	February 27, 2020	70.9
Utah State	San Jose State	February 24, 2020	70.8
Delaware State	Morgan State	February 24, 2020	70.8
Columbia	Dartmouth	February 29, 2020	70.7
North Carolina	Notre Dame	February 27, 2020	70.6
Longwood	High Point	February 29, 2020	70.6
Stony Brook	Maine	February 23, 2020	70.6
Santa Clara	Pacific	February 29, 2020	70.4
UC Santa Barbara	Cal Poly	February 26, 2020	70.3
Georgia Southern	Texas State	February 27, 2020	70.3
Norfolk State	Bethune-Cookman	February 24, 2020	70.3
Hawaii	Cal State Fullerton	February 29, 2020	70.3
High Point	Presbyterian	February 25, 2020	70.2
Arkansas	Mississippi State	February 27, 2020	70
Southern Utah	Eastern Washington	February 27, 2020	70
New Orleans	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	February 26, 2020	69.9
Canisius	Iona	February 27, 2020	69.9
Morehead State	Eastern Kentucky	February 29, 2020	69.9
Oakland	Youngstown State	February 23, 2020	69.7
Georgia	Kentucky	February 27, 2020	69.6
Pepperdine	BYU	February 27, 2020	69.6
Lafayette	Navy	February 29, 2020	69.5
Florida State	Georgia Tech	February 23, 2020	69.4
Howard	North Carolina Central	February 24, 2020	69.4
VCU	Davidson	February 29, 2020	69.3
Northwestern State	Southeastern Louisiana	February 29, 2020	69.3
Miami (Fla.)	Wake Forest	February 27, 2020	69.3
North Dakota	Omaha	February 27, 2020	69.2
Northern Iowa	Valparaiso	February 28, 2020	69.2
Dayton	Saint Louis	February 29, 2020	69.2
Loyola Marymount	San Diego	February 27, 2020	68.8
UNLV	Boise State	February 24, 2020	68.7
Indiana State	Evansville	February 28, 2020	68.6
San Francisco	Saint Mary`s	February 29, 2020	68.6
Air Force	New Mexico	February 24, 2020	68.5
Arkansas	Florida	February 23, 2020	68.4
Lamar	Incarnate Word	February 26, 2020	68.3
San Francisco	Pacific	February 27, 2020	68.2
Saint Louis	Richmond	February 26, 2020	68.2
Temple	UCF	February 26, 2020	67.9
Minnesota	Iowa	February 27, 2020	67.9
Arizona State	Utah	February 23, 2020	67.9
Northern Colorado	Eastern Washington	February 29, 2020	67.8
Central Michigan	Ball State	February 29, 2020	67.8
New Mexico	Utah State	February 27, 2020	67.8
Cleveland State	Green Bay	February 27, 2020	67.7
McNeese State	Southeastern Louisiana	February 26, 2020	67.7
Alabama State	Prairie View	February 29, 2020	67.5
American	Lafayette	February 26, 2020	67.2
Northeastern	UNC Wilmington	February 28, 2020	67.1
Yale	Princeton	February 29, 2020	67
Cornell	Harvard	February 29, 2020	66.8
Alabama	Texas A&M	February 27, 2020	66.8
Providence	Butler	February 23, 2020	66.8
Northern Kentucky	Oakland	February 29, 2020	66.8
Youngstown State	Green Bay	February 29, 2020	66.8
Louisiana-Lafayette	Coastal Carolina	February 29, 2020	66.7
New Hampshire	Binghamton	February 29, 2020	66.6
DePaul	Villanova	February 23, 2020	66.5
Eastern Illinois	SIU Edwardsville	February 29, 2020	66.3
East Tennessee State	Chattanooga	February 29, 2020	66.3
Arizona	Colorado	February 23, 2020	66.3
California	Arizona State	February 28, 2020	66.3
Houston Baptist	Nicholls State	February 26, 2020	66.3
Wisconsin	Rutgers	February 27, 2020	66.3
Purdue	Maryland	February 25, 2020	66.1
Bucknell	Colgate	February 26, 2020	66.1
Colgate	Army	February 29, 2020	65.9
Kent State	Bowling Green	February 29, 2020	65.8
Maryland-Baltimore County	Binghamton	February 26, 2020	65.8
Rider	Fairfield	February 27, 2020	65.6
Boston University	Bucknell	February 29, 2020	65.4
Southern	Alcorn State	February 29, 2020	65.2
Tulsa	Temple	February 29, 2020	65.2
Tulane	Cincinnati	February 23, 2020	65.1
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	February 23, 2020	65.1
Cincinnati	Wichita State	February 29, 2020	65.1
Oregon State	California	February 23, 2020	65
Arkansas-Little Rock	Arkansas State	February 28, 2020	65
Central Arkansas	Abilene Christian	February 29, 2020	64.8
Rice	Louisiana Tech	February 29, 2020	64.8
Army	Holy Cross	February 26, 2020	64.8
North Alabama	Florida Gulf Coast	February 29, 2020	64.6
Lamar	Stephen F. Austin	February 29, 2020	64.1
Sacramento State	Montana State	February 27, 2020	64
Long Island	Saint Francis (PA)	February 23, 2020	63.9
Tennessee Tech	Belmont	February 27, 2020	63.9
Gardner-Webb	South Carolina Upstate	February 29, 2020	63.9
Georgia State	Texas-Arlington	February 27, 2020	63.7
Weber State	Portland State	February 29, 2020	63.6
Vanderbilt	LSU	February 27, 2020	63.6
NJIT	Kennesaw State	February 29, 2020	63.5
SMU	South Florida	February 29, 2020	63.4
Xavier	Seton Hall	February 28, 2020	63.3
Florida Atlantic	Old Dominion	February 26, 2020	63.2
Florida Atlantic	Old Dominion	February 29, 2020	63.2
Duquesne	Saint Bonaventure	February 29, 2020	63.2
UC Riverside	UC Davis	February 29, 2020	63.2
George Mason	VCU	February 26, 2020	62.9
Michigan State	Illinois	February 26, 2020	62.8
Missouri State	Illinois State	February 27, 2020	62.6
Western Michigan	Central Michigan	February 26, 2020	62.6
Saint Joseph`s	Fordham	February 29, 2020	62.3
Detroit	Cleveland State	February 23, 2020	62.3
Presbyterian	Campbell	February 29, 2020	62.2
Auburn	Texas A&M	February 23, 2020	62.2
Denver	Fort Wayne	February 27, 2020	62.2
Michigan	Penn State	February 27, 2020	62.2
Fairfield	Marist	February 24, 2020	62
Washington	Oregon State	February 28, 2020	61.7
McNeese State	Sam Houston State	February 29, 2020	61.6
Georgia Southern	Texas-Arlington	February 29, 2020	61.6
Jacksonville State	Tennessee State	February 27, 2020	61.4
Coppin State	Morgan State	February 29, 2020	61.3
Charleston Southern	Hampton	February 29, 2020	61.3
Colorado	UCLA	February 28, 2020	61.2
UCF	Memphis	February 29, 2020	61.2
Loyola Marymount	BYU	February 29, 2020	61.2
Pittsburgh	Virginia	February 27, 2020	61.1
Maryland-Eastern Shore	North Carolina A&T	February 24, 2020	61.1
Incarnate Word	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	February 29, 2020	61.1
East Carolina	South Florida	February 25, 2020	61
Drake	Loyola Chicago	February 28, 2020	61
Lipscomb	Jacksonville	February 24, 2020	60.9
Alabama	Mississippi State	February 23, 2020	60.9
Iona	Rider	February 23, 2020	60.9
Elon	Drexel	February 23, 2020	60.8
Texas Southern	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	February 24, 2020	60.8
Wright State	Oakland	February 27, 2020	60.6
Maine	New Hampshire	February 26, 2020	60.6
Mississippi	Missouri	February 23, 2020	60.5
Clemson	Florida State	February 27, 2020	60.1
Maine	Maryland-Baltimore County	February 29, 2020	59.8
Stetson	NJIT	February 24, 2020	59.5
Creighton	Xavier	February 23, 2020	59.4
Ohio	Bowling Green	February 26, 2020	59.4
Prairie View	Mississippi Valley State	February 24, 2020	59.4
UCLA	Washington	February 23, 2020	59.3
Brown	Penn	February 29, 2020	59.2
Gonzaga	Portland	February 29, 2020	59.1
Marquette	Georgetown	February 23, 2020	59
Western Carolina	Mercer	February 27, 2020	59
Northern Kentucky	Detroit	February 27, 2020	59
Saint Peter`s	Quinnipiac	February 27, 2020	58.8
Radford	Winthrop	February 29, 2020	58.6
Louisiana-Monroe	Appalachian State	February 29, 2020	58.2
Robert Morris	Fairleigh Dickinson	February 23, 2020	58
Fort Wayne	Oral Roberts	February 29, 2020	58
Kansas State	Baylor	February 29, 2020	57.5
Liberty	Lipscomb	February 29, 2020	57.4
Baylor	West Virginia	February 24, 2020	57.3
Albany	Stony Brook	February 29, 2020	57.3
North Dakota	South Dakota	February 29, 2020	57.3
Boston College	Louisville	February 27, 2020	57.2
Central Connecticut	Merrimack	February 29, 2020	57
UAB	Texas-San Antonio	February 29, 2020	56.9
Saint Bonaventure	Dayton	February 26, 2020	56.7
Western Carolina	Samford	February 29, 2020	56.6
Mississippi Valley State	Jackson State	February 29, 2020	56.1
Canisius	Rider	February 29, 2020	56.1
SIU Edwardsville	Tennessee-Martin	February 27, 2020	55.8
Campbell	Charleston Southern	February 25, 2020	55.8
Illinois	Northwestern	February 29, 2020	55.7
South Carolina	Florida	February 27, 2020	55.7
Washington State	Oregon	February 28, 2020	55.4
South Carolina Upstate	Radford	February 25, 2020	55.3
Milwaukee	Illinois-Chicago	February 23, 2020	55.2
Evansville	Southern Illinois	February 23, 2020	55.1
Connecticut	Cincinnati	February 26, 2020	55
Mississippi	Tennessee	February 27, 2020	54.6
Stephen F. Austin	Northwestern State	February 26, 2020	54.6
Stony Brook	Hartford	February 26, 2020	53.5
Wright State	Detroit	February 29, 2020	53.4
Brown	Princeton	February 28, 2020	53.1
Louisiana-Monroe	Coastal Carolina	February 27, 2020	52.8
Florida International	Charlotte	February 29, 2020	52.8
Missouri-Kansas City	Chicago State	February 29, 2020	52.8
South Dakota State	North Dakota State	February 27, 2020	51.7
Belmont	Tennessee State	February 29, 2020	48.9
Indiana State	Missouri State	February 23, 2020	48.9
James Madison	Hofstra	February 23, 2020	47.8
Illinois-Chicago	IUPUI	February 28, 2020	47.6
Connecticut	Houston	February 29, 2020	47.6
Louisville	Pittsburgh	February 23, 2020	46.3

Underexplained Top 25 – 11/19

I’ve updated my preseason rankings to reflect results os far.

Oregon (previously: 1)
Baylor (2)
Arizona (3)
UConn (4)
Oregon St. (5)
Mississippi St. (6)
Kentucky (8)
Florida St. (11)
Maryland (7)
Texas A&M (13)
Louisville (9)
South Dakota (16)
Purdue (14)
South Fla. (18)
Missouri St. (49)
Indiana (23)
Stanford (22)
Syracuse (38)
DePaul (19)
Minnesota (26)
Drake (41)
Ohio (15)
James Madison (17)
West Virginia (30)
Penn (34)

Three Things to Learn From Last Night

1) Notre Dame isn’t a top 15 team right now

The Fighting Irish lost to Tennessee, 74-63, last night at home. They did this despite Tennessee turning the ball over 28 times. Tennessee also blocked 12 Notre Dame shots. The average height of the Lady Vols’ starters was 6’2.4” compared to that of Notre Dame’s 5’10.4”, and this raises the question of if Notre Dame will be vulnerable to taller teams. Notre Dame is also starting two true freshmen and a sophomore (alongside grad students Destinee Walker & Marta Sniezek). The froshes, Anaya Peoples and Sam Brunelle, ranked 18^th & 6^th in the ESPN HoopGurlz top 100 recruits for the class of 2019, but women’s college basketball is obviously a sport that rewards experience. Muffet McGraw is a great coach, and she should be able to coach this squad up, but it isn’t there yet.

2) Towson’s not where I thought they’d be

I thought the Tigers would be one of the top mid-majors this year, as I had them ranked 65^th preseason, but they’re off to a 0-3 start with losses to Penn State, San Diego State, and San Diego. Penn State’s seemingly rebuilding, and both of the California losses were on the road for the Maryland-based Towson squad, but it’s still got to be a disappointing kickoff to the season. Kionna Jeter is their returning star, and she is averaging 16.7 PPG. But she’s doing so on 35.1% FG%, and just 4/17 from three. When she gets her shot right, she should be able to get them back on the right side of the win column.

3) Wait on the UNC hype

UNC is a team I had ranked low in the preseason (225 in D-I). They’re now 2-0 after home wins against Navy and Western Carolina. Neither of those teams should particularly inspire fear in you, nor should the next two Tar Heels opponents: Charleston Southern & Elon. The Tar Heels don’t leave home until a December 15 trip to Alabama, but they do have a home test against Missouri on the 29^th of this month. That game should tell us a lot more about this team than anything you’d get out of these first two.

All 351 NCAA Division I Teams Ranked, Preseason

Here are my preseason rankings for all of the D-I teams this year. This is the first time I’ve tried to rank this many teams before, and the middle definitely sticks together at points.

These rankings are based on the VORPs of returning players (with as up to date information as I have gathered), while also factoring in teams’ defensive performances last year and giving a bonus to teams from stronger conferences.

Overall Rank	Team	Conference
1	Oregon	Pac-12
2	Baylor	Big 12
3	Arizona	Pac-12
4	UConn	American
5	Oregon St.	Pac-12
6	Mississippi St.	SEC
7	Maryland	Big Ten
8	Kentucky	SEC
9	Louisville	ACC
10	Cincinnati	American
11	Florida St.	ACC
12	Iowa St.	Big 12
13	Texas A&M	SEC
14	Purdue	Big Ten
15	Ohio	MAC
16	South Dakota	Summit
17	James Madison	Colonial
18	South Fla.	American
19	DePaul	Big East
20	Rice	Con USA
21	South Dakota St.	Summit
22	Stanford	Pac-12
23	Indiana	Big Ten
24	Drexel	Colonial
25	Marquette	Big East
26	Minnesota	Big Ten
27	Bucknell	Patriot
28	FGCU	Atlantic Sun
29	LSU	SEC
30	West Virginia	Big 12
31	Villanova	Big East
32	South Alabama	Sun Belt
33	Duke	ACC
34	Penn	Ivy
35	Pacific	West Coast
36	Auburn	SEC
37	Hartford	America East
38	Syracuse	ACC
39	TCU	Big 12
40	BYU	West Coast
41	Drake	MVC
42	Central Mich.	MAC
43	Texas	Big 12
44	Kansas St.	Big 12
45	Marist	MAAC
46	UAB	Con USA
47	VCU	Atlantic 10
48	Michigan	Big Ten
49	Missouri St.	MVC
50	Bradley	MVC
51	Gonzaga	West Coast
52	Boise St.	Mountain West
53	Fresno St.	Mountain West
54	Miami (OH)	MAC
55	Abilene Christian	Southland
56	North Ala.	Atlantic Sun
57	Arkansas St.	Sun Belt
58	Belmont	Ohio Valley
59	Youngstown St.	Horizon
60	Missouri	SEC
61	Seton Hall	Big East
62	Virginia Tech	ACC
63	UCLA	Pac-12
64	NC State	ACC
65	Towson	Colonial
66	Southern Miss.	Con USA
67	Texas Tech	Big 12
68	South Carolina	SEC
69	Michigan St.	Big Ten
70	Northwestern	Big Ten
71	UC Riverside	Big West
72	Coastal Caro.	Sun Belt
73	Buffalo	MAC
74	IUPUI	Horizon
75	Lehigh	Patriot
76	Western Ky.	Con USA
77	Rider	MAAC
78	Princeton	Ivy
79	UT Arlington	Sun Belt
80	Yale	Ivy
81	Providence	Big East
82	St. John's (NY)	Big East
83	Miami (FL)	ACC
84	Pepperdine	West Coast
85	Fordham	Atlantic 10
86	George Mason	Atlantic 10
87	UCF	American
88	Portland St.	Big Sky
89	Massachusetts	Atlantic 10
90	East Carolina	American
91	N.C. A&T	MEAC
92	Robert Morris	Northeast
93	Nebraska	Big Ten
94	UMKC	WAC
95	Tulane	American
96	Old Dominion	Con USA
97	Denver	Summit
98	Davidson	Atlantic 10
99	Washington St.	Pac-12
100	Wyoming	Mountain West
101	Iowa	Big Ten
102	Northern Ill.	MAC
103	New Mexico St.	WAC
104	Hampton	Big South
105	Kent St.	MAC
106	Akron	MAC
107	Saint Mary's (CA)	West Coast
108	New Mexico	Mountain West
109	A&M-Corpus Christi	Southland
110	UNC Greensboro	Southern
111	Oklahoma St.	Big 12
112	Manhattan	MAAC
113	Toledo	MAC
114	UT Martin	Ohio Valley
115	Milwaukee	Horizon
116	Tennessee	SEC
117	Lafayette	Patriot
118	Gardner-Webb	Big South
119	Dayton	Atlantic 10
120	Duquesne	Atlantic 10
121	Cornell	Ivy
122	Eastern Mich.	MAC
123	Georgia Tech	ACC
124	Georgia	SEC
125	Alabama	SEC
126	Virginia	ACC
127	Little Rock	Sun Belt
128	Southern Ill.	MVC
129	Troy	Sun Belt
130	Stony Brook	America East
131	UC Davis	Big West
132	Holy Cross	Patriot
133	Notre Dame	ACC
134	Tennessee Tech	Ohio Valley
135	Green Bay	Horizon
136	SFA	Southland
137	Southeast Mo. St.	Ohio Valley
138	Boston College	ACC
139	Butler	Big East
140	Western Ill.	Summit
141	Appalachian St.	Sun Belt
142	American	Patriot
143	Wofford	Southern
144	Jackson St.	SWAC
145	California Baptist	WAC
146	Colgate	Patriot
147	Stetson	Atlantic Sun
148	Texas Southern	SWAC
149	Liberty	Atlantic Sun
150	Houston	American
151	Oklahoma	Big 12
152	Montana St.	Big Sky
153	Idaho St.	Big Sky
154	Tulsa	American
155	Utah	Pac-12
156	Clemson	ACC
157	Creighton	Big East
158	Arizona St.	Pac-12
159	Sam Houston St.	Southland
160	Radford	Big South
161	Rutgers	Big Ten
162	Loyola Maryland	Patriot
163	Mercer	Southern
164	Charlotte	Con USA
165	Quinnipiac	MAAC
166	Oral Roberts	Summit
167	Santa Clara	West Coast
168	Austin Peay	Ohio Valley
169	Loyola Marymount	West Coast
170	Northern Colo.	Big Sky
171	Loyola Chicago	MVC
172	Northeastern	Colonial
173	UNCW	Colonial
174	North Florida	Atlantic Sun
175	Prairie View	SWAC
176	ETSU	Southern
177	North Texas	Con USA
178	Western Mich.	MAC
179	California	Pac-12
180	Texas St.	Sun Belt
181	Xavier	Big East
182	Idaho	Big Sky
183	UNI	MVC
184	Norfolk St.	MEAC
185	Illinois St.	MVC
186	William & Mary	Colonial
187	St. Francis Brooklyn	Northeast
188	USC Upstate	Big South
189	UC Irvine	Big West
190	Georgia St.	Sun Belt
191	Harvard	Ivy
192	Navy	Patriot
193	San Diego St.	Mountain West
194	Wright St.	Horizon
195	Kennesaw St.	Atlantic Sun
196	Howard	MEAC
197	Delaware	Colonial
198	Dartmouth	Ivy
199	Utah Valley	WAC
200	High Point	Big South
201	Saint Louis	Atlantic 10
202	Nicholls St.	Southland
203	Southern Utah	Big Sky
204	UNC Asheville	Big South
205	Southern U.	SWAC
206	Air Force	Mountain West
207	Northern Ky.	Horizon
208	Jacksonville St.	Ohio Valley
209	Cal St. Fullerton	Big West
210	Furman	Southern
211	Lamar University	Southland
212	Murray St.	Ohio Valley
213	Campbell	Big South
214	Chattanooga	Southern
215	South Carolina St.	MEAC
216	UTRGV	WAC
217	Mount St. Mary's	Northeast
218	Wake Forest	ACC
219	Illinois	Big Ten
220	Wisconsin	Big Ten
221	Ohio St.	Big Ten
222	Temple	American
223	Marshall	Con USA
224	Penn St.	Big Ten
225	North Carolina	ACC
226	Washington	Pac-12
227	Colorado	Pac-12
228	Bowling Green	MAC
229	Kansas	Big 12
230	Sacramento St.	Big Sky
231	Boston U.	Patriot
232	Ga. Southern	Sun Belt
233	Portland	West Coast
234	Louisiana	Sun Belt
235	Binghamton	America East
236	N.C. Central	MEAC
237	Saint Joseph's	Atlantic 10
238	Bryant	Northeast
239	Monmouth	MAAC
240	Coppin St.	MEAC
241	Albany (NY)	America East
242	UC Santa Barbara	Big West
243	Arkansas St.	Sun Belt
244	McNeese	Southland
245	Wichita St.	American
246	New Orleans	Southland
247	Vermont	America East
248	Bethune-Cookman	MEAC
249	Eastern Ill.	Ohio Valley
250	Saint Francis (PA)	Northeast
251	Samford	Southern
252	Montana	Big Sky
253	UNLV	Mountain West
254	Columbia	Ivy
255	Cleveland St.	Horizon
256	SIUE	Ohio Valley
257	Alabama A&M	SWAC
258	Winthrop	Big South
259	Memphis	American
260	Middle Tenn.	Con USA
261	San Diego	West Coast
262	Vanderbilt	SEC
263	Ball St.	MAC
264	Louisiana Tech	Con USA
265	Northwestern St.	Southland
266	Niagara	MAAC
267	Florida	SEC
268	Northern Ariz.	Big Sky
269	Southeastern La.	Southland
270	Georgetown	Big East
271	UMES	MEAC
272	Sacred Heart	Northeast
273	Omaha	Summit
274	Colorado St.	Mountain West
275	La.-Monroe	Sun Belt
276	Valparaiso	MVC
277	Canisius	MAAC
278	La Salle	Atlantic 10
279	Longwood	Big South
280	San Francisco	West Coast
281	SMU	American
282	Richmond	Atlantic 10
283	Utah St.	Mountain West
284	Rhode Island	Atlantic 10
285	UMBC	America East
286	Central Ark.	Southland
287	Long Beach St.	Big West
288	Fairfield	MAAC
289	Alabama St.	SWAC
290	Morgan St.	MEAC
291	Saint Peter's	MAAC
292	Hawaii	Big West
293	Fairleigh Dickinson	Northeast
294	Iona	MAAC
295	Siena	MAAC
296	Brown	Ivy
297	Army West Point	Patriot
298	Central Conn. St.	Northeast
299	Eastern Wash.	Big Sky
300	Southern California	Pac-12
301	Hofstra	Colonial
302	Col. of Charleston	Colonial
303	Oakland	Horizon
304	Houston Baptist	Southland
305	Elon	Colonial
306	San Jose St.	Mountain West
307	UTEP	Con USA
308	UMass Lowell	America East
309	New Hampshire	America East
310	Seattle U	WAC
311	Fla. Atlantic	Con USA
312	Jacksonville	Atlantic Sun
313	Charleston So.	Big South
314	Wagner	Northeast
315	Presbyterian	Big South
316	CSUN	Big West
317	LIU Brooklyn	Northeast
318	Ark.-Pine Bluff	SWAC
319	Alcorn	SWAC
320	Detroit Mercy	Horizon
321	St. Bonaventure	Atlantic 10
322	Purdue Fort Wayne	Summit
323	UTSA	Con USA
324	NJIT	Atlantic Sun
325	CSU Bakersfield	WAC
326	Tennessee St.	Ohio Valley
327	Grand Canyon	WAC
328	FIU	Con USA
329	Weber St.	Big Sky
330	UIC	Horizon
331	Chicago St.	WAC
332	North Dakota	Summit
333	Merrimack	Northeast
334	Incarnate Word	Southland
335	Lipscomb	Atlantic Sun
336	Cal Poly	Big West
337	George Washington	Atlantic 10
338	Nevada	Mountain West
339	Ole Miss	SEC
340	Pittsburgh	ACC
341	North Dakota St.	Summit
342	Eastern Ky.	Ohio Valley
343	Delaware St.	MEAC
344	Evansville	MVC
345	Western Caro.	Southern
346	Mississippi Val.	SWAC
347	Florida A&M	MEAC
348	Grambling	SWAC
349	Indiana St.	MVC
350	Maine	America East
351	Morehead St.	Ohio Valley

2019-2020 Atlantic 10 Conference Preview

Hello everyone. I’ve fallen off my writing this year, in part because of a new job and in part because of dealing with some personal things that were going on. As a result, there won’t be a full preview book this year like there was last year.

What I will do is write up what I can and share some of it for free on this blog. However, further information on each conference I do finish up before the season starts will be up on my Patreon. For just $5 a month, you’ll get access to the advanced stats I’ll be posting, plus full information for each conference preview I get done, including preseason all-conference teams, team level breakdowns based off the ’18-’19 season, and top player rankings in advanced stats for each conference.

The full A-10 preview will be up on Patreon shortly. For now, enjoy the basic information below.

Team are listed in order of projected finish

#1 Virginia Commonwealth Rams

2018-19 record: 23-9, 13-3 Atlantic 10, tied for first place

Postseason: WNIT second round loss to Virginia Tech, 82-72; first round win vs. Charlotte, 65-52

Head coach: Beth O’Boyle

Career record: 155-116, nine seasons (previous schools: Montclair State, Stony Brook)

Record at VCU: 69-56, four seasons

VCU just had a tremendous single season improvement, going from seven to 23 wins in the span of a year. A lot of that hinged on a fantastic defensive performance that ranked among the season’s best. With almost all of their key personnel from ’18-’19 returning, I don’t have much of a reason to doubt they’ll be able to replicate that performance.

The Rams return their top nine players on last year’s team in terms of minutes played. They’re very much running back the same team, as they have no freshmen on the ’19-’20 roster.

Defensively, Beth O’Boyle’s team didn’t do anything overly flashly like force a huge number of turnovers. They just kept opponents from scoring, with an opposing effective field goal percentage that was the second best in the nation. A huge part of this comes from elite shot blockers Danielle Hammond and Kseniya Malashka. They also controlled the boards, having the 22^nd best opposing offensive rebounding rate in D-I.

The Rams offense last year falls solidly in the category of “good enough,” with an offensive rating that put them solidly in the middle of Division I. One thing to note with their offense was their reluctance to take three pointers; VCU ranked in the bottom 50 nationally in their willingness to gun it from deep. However, Olga Petrova (29-71 from 3) and Tera Reed (22-55) both recorded high efficiency in limited tries. If one or both can maintain that success rate with more green light opportunities, it should help diversify and improve their offense.

VCU is among my favorites for the conference. With as much talent as they have returning, it wouldn’t shock me to have them be one of the best mid-majors in the country this year.

Losses:

Graduated: Jailyn Maddox, 5’10” senior guard – 15 G, 0 starts, 8.7 MPG, 2.5 PPG, shot 46.2% TS%/39.4 eFG% on 18.6% usage, 14.2 PER, 0.03 BPM, 0.09 VORP, 48.5 free throw rate with 68.8% FT%

Returning players:

Sydnei Archie, 5’10” junior guard – 34 G, 34 starts, 20.9 MPG, 5.7 PPG, shot 40.5% TS%/39.9 eFG% on 20.9% usage, 10.7 PER, -1.25 BPM, 0.39 VORP

Danielle Hammond, 6’4” senior center – 34 G, 0 starts, 19.2 MPG, 8.7 PPG, shot 62.6% TS%/58.7 eFG% on 23.2% usage, 27.0 PER, 6.73 BPM, 4.18 VORP, 8.71 BLK%, 12.84 ORB%, 73.7 free throw rate with 65.9% FT%

Madison Hattix-Covington, 5’10” redshirt sophomore guard – 34 G, 3 starts, 19.4 MPG, 3.8 PPG, shot 46.9% TS%/41.8 eFG% on 13.2% usage, 11.0 PER, 2.23 BPM, 2.05 VORP

Kseniya Malashka, 6’0” sophomore forward – 34 G, 0 starts, 16.2 MPG, 5.7 PPG, shot 47.3% TS%/44.4 eFG% on 26.3% usage, 16.4 PER, 4.36 BPM, 2.57 VORP, 7.58 BLK%, 3.07 STL%

Sofya Pashigoreva, 5’6” junior center – 34 G, 34 starts, 17.0 MPG, 4.1 PPG, shot 44.5% TS%/40.9 eFG% on 18.7% usage, 12.7 PER, 0.60 BPM, 1.10 VORP, 12.22 ORB%, 41.7 free throw rate with 56.4% FT%

Olga Petrova, 5’8” junior guard – 26 G, 0 starts, 14.6 MPG, 5.3 PPG, shot 52.7% TS%/51.2 eFG% on 22.6% usage, 15.1 PER, 2.23 BPM, 0.90 VORP, 56.3 three point rate with 40.8% 3PT%

Tera Reed, 6’0” junior guard – 31 G, 31 starts, 28.5 MPG, 12.5 PPG, shot 55.4% TS%/46.8 eFG% on 25.4% usage, 21.9 PER, 4.62 BPM, 3.91 VORP, 57.1 free throw rate with 78.8% FT%

Taya Robinson, 5’10” junior guard – 34 G, 34 starts, 28.9 MPG, 9.9 PPG, shot 48.7% TS%/43.5 eFG% on 21.4% usage, 18.7 PER, 5.43 BPM, 5.36 VORP

Nyra Williams, 5’5” senior guard – 34 G, 34 starts, 29.0 MPG, 3.9 PPG, shot 48.9% TS%/42.1 eFG% on 10.8% usage, 10.1 PER, 2.53 BPM, 3.28 VORP, 63.6 free throw rate with 64.7% FT%

Additions:

Janika Griffith-Wallace, 5’9” junior guard – transferred from Murray State; will likely miss ’19-’20; in ’18-’19: 29 G, 20 starts, 29.0 MPG, 11.7 PPG, shot 47.0% TS%/43.2 eFG% on 25.6% usage, 15.3 PER, -1.09 BPM, 0.48 VORP

Freshmen: none

#2 Massachusetts Minutewomen

2018-19 record: 16-16, 7-9 Atlantic 10, tied for 8^th place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Tory Verdi

Career record: 114-121, eight seasons (previous schools: Columbia, Eastern Michigan)

Record at Massachusetts: 39-53, three seasons

Imagine a team that finished near the midpoint of Division I in both offensive and defensive rating, and you probably imagine a .500 team. That’s exactly what the Minutewomen were in 2018-2019.

UMass loses two of their key starters from last season, with three point specialist Jessica George and center Anil Burcu Soysal exiting. They lose bench wing Genesis Rivera and swing starter Asia McCoy to graduation and transfer, respectively.

UMass returns a lot of talent from last years. Among their returning players is star point guard Destiney Philoxy, who showed good vision and the ability to score at a high rate despite handling a huge part of the offense. Being able to accomplish all of that just as a freshman was extremely impressive. Also returning is wing Hailey Leidel, who is a confident downtown shooter who can score efficiently.

UMass is in a position to contend for the A-10 crown with all of their returning talent. If that leads to defensive gelling and improve offensive output, they could walk away with a NCAA bid this year.

Losses:

Graduated: Jessica George, 5’10” guard – 32 G, 32 starts, 32.4 MPG, 8.5 PPG, shot 47.3% TS%/45.6 eFG% on 16.9% usage, 11.4 PER, 0.26 BPM, 1.61 VORP, 55.9 three point rate with 35.8% 3PT%; Genesis Rivera, 5’11” wing – 30 G, 5 starts, 14.2 MPG, 4.3 PPG, shot 51.3% TS%/50.4 eFG% on 18.9% usage, 15.8 PER, 0.73 BPM, 0.75 VORP, 20.5 DRB%, 60.8 three point rate with 34.2% 3PT%

Transferred: Asia McCoy, 5’10” sophomore guard – transferred to South Plains College (junior college); 26 G, 16 starts, 22.1 MPG, 4.7 PPG, shot 45.7% TS%/39.4 eFG% on 14.0% usage, 10.9 PER, -2.00 BPM, 0.00 VORP

Anil Burcu Soysal, 6’5” redshirt sophomore center – transferred to UTRGV; 32 G, 31 starts, 19.3 MPG, 4.6 PPG, shot 56.1% TS%/53.8 eFG% on 15.2% usage, 10.7 PER, -2.69 BPM, -0.30 VORP

Returning players:

Bre Hampton-Bey, 5’6” junior guard – 31 G, 22 starts, 24.7 MPG, 8.3 PPG, shot 45.2% TS%/40.5 eFG% on 24.7% usage, 15.6 PER, 0.63 BPM, 1.34 VORP, 3.31 STL%, 41.9 free throw rate with 62.4% FT%

Hailey Leidel, 5’11” senior wing – 32 G, 31 starts, 33.3 MPG, 13.2 PPG, shot 51.9% TS%/46.4 eFG% on 22.9% usage, 22.0 PER, 5.14 BPM, 5.22 VORP, 54.6 three point rate with 33.0% 3PT%

Paige McCormick, 5’11” junior guard – 20 G, 2 starts, 10.3 MPG, 2.8 PPG, shot 41.3% TS%/38.1 eFG% on 20.3% usage, 10.7 PER, -2.87 BPM, -0.08 VORP, 61.9 three point rate with 25.6% 3PT%

Jessica Nelson, 6’2” sophomore forward – 30 G, 1 starts, 19.6 MPG, 4.2 PPG, shot 48.7% TS%/46.2 eFG% on 13.4% usage, 12.1 PER, -0.84 BPM, 0.44 VORP

Vashnie Perry, 5’6” senior guard – 28 G, 15 starts, 18.6 MPG, 6.0 PPG, shot 42.6% TS%/39.9 eFG% on 22.5% usage, 12.4 PER, -2.22 BPM, -0.07 VORP

Destiney Philoxy, 5’7” sophomore guard – 29 G, 5 starts, 21.8 MPG, 10.8 PPG, shot 55.4% TS%/50.4 eFG% on 28.1% usage, 26.8 PER, 5.04 BPM, 2.78 VORP, 35.66 AST% with 18.8% TO%, 3.63 STL%, 49.8 free throw rate with 68.7% FT%

Additions:

Sam Breen, 6’1” junior forward – transferred midseason from Penn State; will miss part of ’19-’20; 4 G, 0 starts, 10.5 MPG, 3.0 PPG, shot 47.0% TS%/45.5 eFG% on 19.3% usage, 14.8 PER, -1.74 BPM, 0.00 VORP, 21.3 DRB%

Desiree Oliver, 5’7” junior guard – transferred from Temple; will miss ’19-’20; in ’18-‘19 19 G, 6 starts, 20.2 MPG, 5.5 PPG, shot 37.6% TS%/35.2 eFG% on 21.9% usage, 9.4 PER, -3.11 BPM, -0.17 VORP

Maddie Sims, 6’2” senior forward – transferred from Siena; will miss ’19-’20; in ’18-’19, 30 G, 28 starts, 34.1 MPG, 12.1 PPG, shot 47.5% TS%/46.6 eFG% on 23.6% usage, 18.1 PER, 0.77 BPM, 1.81 VORP, 20.4 DRB%, 43.2 free throw rate with 46.0% FT%

Freshmen: Maeve Donnelly, 6’5” post, Susquehanna Valley, Binghamton, NY – won Class B All-State First Team honors

Grace Heeps, 5’11” guard, Northfield Mount Hernon, East Greenbush, NY – NEPSAC Class A All-Star

Angelique Ngalakulondi, 6’2” forward, Proctor academy, Manchester, NH – won 2018 New Hampshire Gatorade Player of the Year

Sydney Taylor, 5’9” guard, St. Anthony’s HS, Huntington Station, NY – won CHSAA Championships in first three seasons

#3 George Mason Patriots

2018-19 record: 16-14, 8-8 Atlantic 10, seventh place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Nyla Milleson

Career record: 376-223, 19 seasons (previous schools: Missouri State, Drury)

Record at George Mason: 86-100, six seasons

After breaking a 17 year streak without making the postseason in ’17-‘18, the Patriots fell back to earth, finishing in the middle of the pack. They didn’t stand out on either side of the ball. While some aspects of this team looked promising – an ability to get to the free throw line and grab offensive boards should help a team do better offensively – the results just weren’t there.

They lose two seniors to graduation, but they only combined to play 19.8 MPG. Returning seven key players, including Conference Player of the Year candidate Jacy Bolton, is a promising sign. They also add one of the few ranked recruits for the A-10 in three-star forward recruit Tamia Lawhorne.

I’m optimistic about the talent levels with this team and I think they could contend for the conference championship this year. It should be closer to the ’17-’18 season than last year’s results.

Losses:

Graduated: Casey Davis, 6’2” redshirt senior forward – 16 G, 5 starts, 8.3 MPG, 1.5 PPG, shot 53.0% TS%/50.0 eFG% on 12.1% usage, 13.3 PER, 0.42 BPM, 0.11 VORP, 5.63 BLK%, 10.50 ORB%; Jewel Triggs, 5’11” guard – 30 G, 0 starts, 11.5 MPG, 2.0 PPG, shot 47.5% TS%/43.3 eFG% on 11.0% usage, 14.1 PER, -0.41 BPM, 0.35 VORP, 11.71 ORB%, 86.7 free throw rate with 51.3% FT%

Returning players:

Jacy Bolton, 6’0” senior wing – 30 G, 30 starts, 36.3 MPG, 10.5 PPG, shot 55.0% TS%/50.4 eFG% on 15.6% usage, 20.6 PER, 6.30 BPM, 5.80 VORP, 20.4 DRB%

Nicole Cardano-Hillary, 5’7” junior guard – 30 G, 30 starts, 35.8 MPG, 20.4 PPG, shot 46.7% TS%/40.7 eFG% on 35.9% usage, 21.3 PER, 1.62 BPM, 2.49 VORP, 3.51 STL%

Camarie Gatling, 6’0” junior forward – 30 G, 25 starts, 22.0 MPG, 8.7 PPG, shot 54.9% TS%/55.4 eFG% on 21.8% usage, 20.3 PER, 2.41 BPM, 1.87 VORP, 10.50 ORB%

Alexsis Grate, 5’6” senior guard – 30 G, 12 starts, 19.3 MPG, 4.6 PPG, shot 45.5% TS%/35.5 eFG% on 18.3% usage, 8.7 PER, -3.32 BPM, -0.49 VORP, 65.0 free throw rate with 71.1% FT%

Sarah Kaminski, 5’9” senior guard – 30 G, 20 starts, 25.6 MPG, 7.7 PPG, shot 50.6% TS%/48.6 eFG% on 17.1% usage, 13.9 PER, 2.15 BPM, 2.04 VORP, 81.2 three point rate with 31.6% 3PT%

Marika Korpinen, 5’9” junior guard – 30 G, 25 starts, 25.4 MPG, 5.1 PPG, shot 38.8% TS%/37.6 eFG% on 15.1% usage, 8.4 PER, -1.23 BPM, 0.38 VORP

Allie McCool, 6’2” senior forward – 30 G, 3 starts, 14.2 MPG, 3.8 PPG, shot 52.5% TS%/49.5 eFG% on 14.8% usage, 14.8 PER, -1.72 BPM, 0.08 VORP

Additions

Freshmen: Rachel Balzer, 5’10” guard, Germantown Academy, Doylestown, PA

Jazmyn Doster, 6’2” center, Lake Taylor HS, Norfolk, VA – won Class 4 State Championship, First Team Class 4 All-State

Tamia Lawhorne, 6’0” forward, Long Island Lutheran HS, Amityville, NY – ESPN HoopGurlz three-star recruit; All-Conference selection

Rosie Schweizer, 6’0” redshirt freshman, Canberra Girls Summer School, Canberra, Australia – three-time high school U19 Division I team MVP

Vita Stam, 6’3” freshman, Calandlyceum, Blithoven, Netherlands – member of U16 & U18 Netherlands National Team

Jordan Wakefield, 6’0” guard, John Carroll HS, Abingdon, MD – first team All-IAAM honoree

#4 Fordham Rams

2018-19 record: 25-8, 13-3 Atlantic 10, first place

Postseason: NCAA #14 seed, first round loss to #3 Syracuse, 70-49

Head coach: Stephanie Gaitley

Career record: 633-364, 33 seasons (previous schools: Richmond, Saint Joseph’s, LIU Brooklyn, Monmouth)

Record at Fordham: 169-95, eight seasons

Gaitley continued to be a revelation as Fordham’s coach, taking them to the NCAA tournament last season for their sixth postseason berth in the last eight years.

Fordham loses two starters to graduation this year. Lauren Holden was a decent three point gunner in a small offensive role and recorded the most minutes per game. More notably, Mary Goulding was one of the best players in the conference and helped them improve on both ends of the court. Goulding finished the season with the third best effective field goal percentage last year. The Rams had a slight improvement on the defensive rating by a tenth of a point, but increased their offensive output by 2.4 points per 100 possessions.

Bre Cavanaugh is their best returning player, with a solid scoring efficiency on a huge usage percentage and the second highest scoring average in the A-10 last year. Her Player Efficiency Rating was the seventh best in the A-10. She also finished second in the conference in minutes per game. Also returning is Kaitlyn Downey, who was a top 20 player in the Atlantic 10 in scoring efficiency. If she is able to maintain that efficiency while taking a bigger role in the offense, she could be one of the most improved players in the league. Kendell Heremaia also returns. She was a strong defensive rebounder and a valuable three point shooter for this team.

Fordham does lose two key players, but maintain a strong set of players and add depth with grad transfer Isis Young. I think Fordham will be able to hit at least 20 wins this year.

Losses:

Graduated: Mary Goulding, 6’0” forward – 33 G, 33 starts, 35.6 MPG, 12.8 PPG, shot 55.9% TS%/53.9 eFG% on 20.8% usage, 25.3 PER, 8.44 BPM, 8.73 VORP, 11.04 ORB%; Lauren Holden, 5’5” guard – 34 G, 34 starts, 38.6 MPG, 9.0 PPG, shot 46.8% TS%/42.4 eFG% on 16.4% usage, 9.5 PER, -0.34 BPM, 1.60 VORP, 61.6 three point rate with 31.2% 3PT%

Returning players:

Bre Cavanaugh, 5’8” redshirt junior guard – 34 G, 34 starts, 38.1 MPG, 17.1 PPG, shot 48.3% TS%/43.2 eFG% on 28.1% usage, 22.8 PER, 3.98 BPM, 5.68 VORP

Kaitlyn Downey, 6’1” sophomore forward – 34 G, 29 starts, 20.6 MPG, 6.3 PPG, shot 50.8% TS%/48.2 eFG% on 18.7% usage, 18.3 PER, 2.94 BPM, 2.54 VORP, 54.6 three point rate with 31.1% 3PT%

Kendell Heremaia, 5’9” junior guard – 34 G, 33 starts, 28.5 MPG, 8.1 PPG, shot 48.3% TS%/47.3 eFG% on 21.5% usage, 13.9 PER, 1.81 BPM, 2.70 VORP, 52.0 three point rate with 35.2% 3PT%

Zara Jillings, 5’11” junior guard – 34 G, 4 starts, 18.9 MPG, 3.2 PPG, shot 52.2% TS%/51.5 eFG% on 11.6% usage, 13.2 PER, 1.60 BPM, 1.70 VORP

Megan Jonassen, 6’0” sophomore forward – 33 G, 3 starts, 13.6 MPG, 2.7 PPG, shot 42.7% TS%/42.9 eFG% on 14.1% usage, 14.5 PER, 0.27 BPM, 0.72 VORP, 13.96 ORB%

Additions:

Transfer: Isis Young, 5’7” graduate student guard – transferred from Louisville; 28 G, 0 starts, 7.8 MPG, 2.2 PPG, shot 40.4% TS%/38.7 eFG% on 16.8% usage, 10.9 PER, -1.21 BPM, 0.10 VORP, 81.3 three point rate with 26.2% 3PT%

Freshmen: Anna DeWolfe, 5’8” guard, Greely HS, Cumberland, Maine – four-time All-State honoree, Miss Maine nominee as junior & senior

Eden Johnson, 6’1” forward, Huron HS, Ann Arbor, MI – conference MVP as junior

Sarah Karpell, 5’7” guard, Saint John Vianney, Holmdel, NJ – selected to USJN Nationals All-Tournament Team

#5 Saint Louis Billikens

2018-19 record: 15-16, 9-7 Atlantic 10, sixth place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Lisa Stone

Career record: 623-336, 33 seasons (previous schools: Cornell College, Wisconsin-Eau Claire, Drake, Wisconsin)

Record at Saint Louis: 120-99, seven seasons

Although they barely did fall under .500, they did for the first time since 2014-15, when they also finished 15-16 overall. In 2015-16, they improved to 26-8 and made the first of three straight WNIT trips.

They do lose two regular starters in Jordyn Frantz and Kerri McMahan, who were both solid contributors. The other three high profile exits from the program included two players who occasionally started for them (Amber Lindfors & Evan Zars) and one who usually got a solid number of minutes as a backup (Tasia Jeffries).

Their returning players is highlighted by sophomores Ciaja Harbison and Brooke Flowers. Flowers was a great rebounder and shot blocker, while Harbison created well for her teammates. They hold the promise of being one of the best inside outside combinations in women’s hoops the next three years.

The defense was interesting in that they did great as a group in limiting shot making by their opponents, but they were one of the very worst teams at forcing turnovers. Saint Louis also focused almost exclusively on grabbing defensive rebounds rather than working the offensive glass. As a result, they greatly limited their opponents’ second chances on offense but didn’t have very many of their own to exploit.

Much like ’15-’16, I think the Billikens will have a bounceback season. I think they’ll be among the second tier of teams in the A-10, with a (very) outside chance at winning the conference crown.

Losses:

Graduated: Jordyn Frantz, 6’0” guard – 31 G, 30 starts, 35.9 MPG, 14.1 PPG, shot 51.1% TS%/47.4 eFG% on 23.3% usage, 16.9 PER, 2.80 BPM, 3.52 VORP, 59.1 three point rate with 34.3% 3PT%; Amber Lindfors, 6’4” redshirt senior center – 18 G, 7 starts, 10.2 MPG, 2.9 PPG, shot 45.2% TS%/44.7 eFG% on 18.3% usage, 18.8 PER, 1.60 BPM, 0.25 VORP, 9.04 BLK%, 51.1 free throw rate with 41.7% FT%; Kerri McMahan, 5’10” redshirt senior guard – 31 G, 31 starts, 33.4 MPG, 7.7 PPG, shot 51.7% TS%/46.8 eFG% on 14.5% usage, 12.7 PER, 1.22 BPM, 2.20 VORP

Transferred: Tasia Jeffries, 5’8” junior guard – transferred to Bellarmine (D-II); 23 G, 0 starts, 10.8 MPG, 3.1 PPG, shot 45.9% TS%/42.1 eFG% on 18.3% usage, 13.7 PER, 0.02 BPM, 0.25 VORP, 67.1 three point rate with 27.7% 3PT%; Evan Zars, 6’2” sophomore forward – transferred to Western Illinois; 30 G, 19 starts, 18.8 MPG, 2.1 PPG, shot 40.7% TS%/37.3 eFG% on 10.8% usage, 5.5 PER, -2.11 BPM, -0.04 VORP, 19.8 DRB%

Returning players:

Myia Clark, 5’7” sophomore guard – 31 G, 12 starts, 18.6 MPG, 4.5 PPG, shot 47.0% TS%/45.2 eFG% on 16.9% usage, 10.1 PER, -0.75 BPM, 0.48 VORP, 50.4 three point rate with 35.3% 3PT%

Brooke Flowers, 6’5” sophomore post – 31 G, 20 starts, 23.7 MPG, 8.0 PPG, shot 43.9% TS%/42.9 eFG% on 23.0% usage, 21.3 PER, 0.56 BPM, 1.24 VORP, 9.06 BLK%, 24.7 DRB%, 13.29 ORB%

Ciaja Harbison, 5’6” sophomore guard – 31 G, 31 starts, 36.4 MPG, 14.6 PPG, shot 50.3% TS%/43.2 eFG% on 26.6% usage, 19.0 PER, 1.64 BPM, 2.71 VORP, 30.42 AST% with 21.7% TO%

Chloe Rice, 5’11” sophomore guard – 31 G, 1 starts, 12.2 MPG, 2.7 PPG, shot 46.4% TS%/43.4 eFG% on 15.9% usage, 5.5 PER, -3.04 BPM, -0.26 VORP, 73.5 three point rate with 29.5% 3PT%

Kendra Wilken, 6’2” senior forward – 26 G, 4 starts, 11.8 MPG, 5.1 PPG, shot 53.2% TS%/47.4 eFG% on 24.8% usage, 22.6 PER, -1.04 BPM, 0.16 VORP, 12.19 ORB%, 68.8 free throw rate with 63.6% FT%

Additions:

Hannah Dossett, 5’6” graduate student guard – transferred from Syracuse; will be first season of collegiate basketball

Victoria Mikkelsen, 6’1” junior forward – transferred from Independence CC in Kansas; averaged 7.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG

Myriama Smith Traore, 6’2” sophomore forward – transferred from Marquette; missed ’18-’19, in ’17-’18, 11 G, 0 starts, 7.6 MPG, 1.7 PPG, shot 52.2% TS% on 12.2% USG%, 11.2 PER; led team with 4.58% BLK%

Jaidah Stewart, 5’9” sophomore guard – midseason transfer from Houston; played one game before transfer; will be eligible for spring semester of ’19-‘20

Freshmen: Lia Enos, 5’10” wing, Tuscaloosa Academy, Miami, FL – missed senior year due to injury;

Rachel Kent, 5’11” wing, Maine West HS, Des Plaines, IL – ESPN HoopGurlz three-star recruit; four-time selection to IBCA All-State team

Julia Martinez, 5’10” guard, Loyola Academy, Chicago, IL – three-time IBCA All-State selection

#6 Richmond Spiders

2018-19 record: 9-21, 6-10 Atlantic 10, 11^th place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Aaron Roussell

Career record: 312-122, 15 seasons (previous schools: Chicago, Bucknell)

Record at Richmond: first season

The Spiders will head into ’19-’20 with a new head coach. Michael Shafer was removed after 14 seasons at the helm for Richmond. He was the second-longest tenured coach in school history.

This team was a mess on offense, with shooting efficiency percentages that placed them among the bottom 20 nationally. They also didn’t get to the free throw line and didn’t get offensive rebounds. They struggled defensively, as well, and played at a very slow place. I can’t imagine fans were enthralled with the on-court product.

Richmond is fortunate in that they only lose one key player from last year’s team in Daijia Ruffin.

Their best player from last year, Jaide Hinds-Clarke, only started 26 of her 30 games, and played just 737 minutes on a slow paced team. She was the only player on the team that finished with a positive BPM. If the Spiders are going to improve in 2019-2020, they’ll need to lean heavily on her.

The addition of Kaila Clark (a rare transfer from a service academy) is big news for Richmond. If she is able to play at the same level she did as a Midshipmen, she’ll really help this team rise up the ranks.

Hinds-Clarke has the potential to be good enough to make Richmond contend as high as fourth in the A-10, but they need to really improve their depth from last year to achieve this. Barring one of the best improvements this year, I don’t think they’ll contend for the conference title.

Losses:

Graduated: Daijia Ruffin, 5’9” graduate student guard – 27 G, 10 starts, 21.9 MPG, 7.0 PPG, shot 44.2% TS%/38.7 eFG% on 23.0% usage, 13.5 PER, -3.02 BPM, -0.35 VORP, 47.5 free throw rate with 61.9% FT%

Returning players:

Aniyah Carpenter, 5’8” sophomore guard – 30 G, 10 starts, 19.0 MPG, 5.2 PPG, shot 39.2% TS%/37.2 eFG% on 21.8% usage, 7.1 PER, -6.84 BPM, -1.79 VORP

Amy Duggan, 6’0” senior forward – 29 G, 24 starts, 25.8 MPG, 3.7 PPG, shot 41.0% TS%/37.4 eFG% on 11.2% usage, 11.2 PER, -0.96 BPM, 0.49 VORP

Jayana Ervin, 5’8” senior guard – 21 G, 5 starts, 14.0 MPG, 3.2 PPG, shot 42.1% TS%/40.3 eFG% on 19.3% usage, 9.5 PER, -5.54 BPM, -0.47 VORP, 3.82 STL%

Kailyn Fee, 5’6” junior guard – 20 G, 4 starts, 14.3 MPG, 3.5 PPG, shot 35.6% TS%/33.3 eFG% on 20.8% usage, 4.3 PER, -7.86 BPM, -0.73 VORP, 78.5 three point rate with 21.9% 3PT%

Jaide Hinds-Clarke, 6’1” senior forward – 30 G, 26 starts, 24.6 MPG, 10.2 PPG, shot 44.4% TS%/41.0 eFG% on 27.6% usage, 23.4 PER, 0.71 BPM, 1.30 VORP, 23.2 DRB%, 11.80 ORB%, 3.86 STL%, 41.0 free throw rate with 55.8% FT%

Claire Holt, 5’6” sophomore guard – 25 G, 9 starts, 16.8 MPG, 5.2 PPG, shot 45.6% TS%/41.6 eFG% on 21.5% usage, 11.3 PER, -4.83 BPM, -0.64 VORP, 55.7 three point rate with 28.8% 3PT%

Molly Mraz, 5’8” sophomore guard – 30 G, 23 starts, 17.5 MPG, 2.1 PPG, shot 35.2% TS%/33.1 eFG% on 11.5% usage, 1.7 PER, -7.42 BPM, -1.85 VORP, 79.1 three point rate with 25.0% 3PT%

Madelyn Neff, 6’1” sophomore forward – 19 G, 1 starts, 12.2 MPG, 2.2 PPG, shot 40.1% TS%/36.5 eFG% on 14.3% usage, 9.3 PER, -5.02 BPM, -0.29 VORP

Alex Parson, 5’6” junior guard – 30 G, 30 starts, 31.3 MPG, 10.2 PPG, shot 41.5% TS%/38.9 eFG% on 24.7% usage, 10.8 PER, -3.22 BPM, -0.75 VORP

Emma Squires, 6’2” sophomore forward – 17 G, 5 starts, 19.0 MPG, 5.0 PPG, shot 39.5% TS%/36.6 eFG% on 21.3% usage, 6.7 PER, -5.46 BPM, -0.41 VORP, 55.4 three point rate with 21.4% 3PT%

Additions:

Kaila Clark, 5’11” junior forward – transferred from Navy; missed ’18-’19; in ’17-’18, 33 G, 33 starts, 25.5 MPG, 7.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.61 SPG, 2.09 BPG, shot 45.4% TS% on 19.0% USG%, 23.2 PER, 12.59 BPM, 8.76 VORP

Kate Klimkiewicz, 6’0” sophomore guard – transferred from Boston College; in ’18-’19: 13 G, 0 starts, 3.3 MPG, 0.9 PPG, shot 43.2% TS%/42.3 eFG% on 14.5% usage, 15.5 PER, 1.94 BPM, 0.05 VORP, 76.9 three point rate with 30.0% 3PT%; will likely miss ’19-‘20

Freshmen: Angel Burgos, 5’8” guard, Trinity Episcopal, Richmond, VA – second-team All-Metro selection in ’18-’19, second-team VISAA All-State in ’17-‘18

Elaina Chapman, 6’3” forward, Trinity Episcopal, Richmond, VA – ESPN HoopGurlz top 100 prospect, four-star recruit; was named Richmond Times-Dispatch Player of the Year

Cecil Satter, 6’0” forward, Loyola Academy, Glencoe, IL – won MVP for team Illinois in Missouri vs. Illinois All-Star game; IBCA Class 4A Third-Team All-State selection

#7 Davidson Wildcats

2018-19 record: 17-15, 10-6 Atlantic 10 (tied for fourth)

Postseason: WBI first round loss to Marshall, 67-64

Head coach: Gayle Coats Fulks

Career record: 29-43, two seasons

Record at Davidson: same

Davidson improved by five wins from 2017-18. This improvement was largely fueled by an improved offensive performance, which moved them from 256^th nationally to 173^rd. The Wildcats’ best victory came against the 25-win Fordham squad on the road. The North Carolina squad ended their season with their first trip to the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals before falling to Dayton. That was Davidson’s sixth loss to Dayton in as many meetings.

With a bid to the WBI, Davidson made its first trip to the postseason since 2013’s WNIT trip.

In last year’s preview, I raised questions about who would carry the offensive load for the Wildcats. Among the starters, a lot of that portion of the team’s responsibilities was sophomore wing Sarah Donovan. Donovan was not just an elite rebounder, but also a strong interior scorer for the Wildcats. She finished the year second on the team in PER and first in VORP.

The 2017 A-10’s Most Improved Player, senior Justine Lyon handled an outsized offensive role coming off the bench for Davidson. Despite just one start, Lyon was the leading scorer on the team at 13.1 PPG. Her graduation will hurt the team. They also lose Kianna Speight, who was a very good offensive contributor on a team that needed it. She shot 33.6% from deep while scoring 10.0 PPG.

Key losses:

Graduated: Justine Lyon, 5’9” guard – 31 G, 2 starts, 25.2 MPG, 13.1 PPG, shot 48.4% TS%/44.4 eFG% on 29.0% usage, 24.4 PER, 4.61 BPM, 3.44 VORP, 3.44 STL%; Kyla Roland, 6’2” forward – 31 G, 1 starts, 13.5 MPG, 0.9 PPG, shot 25.5% TS%/21.6 eFG% on 10.7% usage, 5.1 PER, -0.55 BPM, 0.41 VORP, 22.1 DRB%; Kianna Speight, 5’8” guard – 32 G, 32 starts, 27.8 MPG, 10.0 PPG, shot 50.3% TS%/47.3 eFG% on 19.8% usage, 15.5 PER, 3.65 BPM, 3.46 VORP, 3.14 STL%, 72.5 three point rate with 33.6% 3PT%

Key returning players:

Sarah Donovan, 6’0″ junior wing – 32 G, 32 starts, 32.5 MPG, 12.9 PPG, shot 47.5% TS%/45.1 eFG% on 23.0% usage, 21.5 PER, 4.39 BPM, 4.57 VORP, 11.34 ORB%

Kelly Fitzgerald, 5’6” junior guard – 29 G, 0 starts, 10.3 MPG, 3.2 PPG, shot 45.3% TS%/43.8 eFG% on 22.2% usage, 7.1 PER, -5.73 BPM, -0.70 VORP

Cassidy Gould, 5’9” sophomore guard – 32 G, 31 starts, 26.7 MPG, 7.9 PPG, shot 56.1% TS%/51.8 eFG% on 17.9% usage, 12.4 PER, 0.61 BPM, 1.53 VORP

Katie Turner, 5’7” junior guard – 32 G, 32 starts, 34.4 MPG, 12.2 PPG, shot 50.0% TS%/44.7 eFG% on 19.7% usage, 17.5 PER, 3.04 BPM, 3.82 VORP, 56.5 three point rate with 29.6% 3PT%

Chloe Welch, 5’9” sophomore guard – 28 G, 0 starts, 8.1 MPG, 1.3 PPG, shot 30.0% TS%/28.3 eFG% on 15.4% usage, 6.2 PER, -3.05 BPM, -0.14 VORP

Ally Welling, 6’3” senior forward – 32 G, 30 starts, 24.8 MPG, 5.3 PPG, shot 39.7% TS%/37.3 eFG% on 14.7% usage, 9.8 PER, -1.87 BPM, 0.07 VORP

Additions

Freshmen: Peyton Carter, 6’1” forward, Nease HS, St. Augustine, FL; also competed in golf and track in high school; was second team All First-Coast selection as junior

Suzi-Rose Deegan, 5’10” guard, Sacred Heart College/Lake Ginninderra Collee, Marmion, Australia; also competed in Australian Rules Football and cross country; three-time MVP of Western Australia; won bronze as part of Australian 3×3 Youth Olympics team in 2018; holds school’s record in 400, 800, and 1500 meters

Adelaide Fuller, 6’3” forward, All Hallow’s School, Brisbane, Australia; was MVP of Brisbane Capitals in ’17-‘18

Sarah Konstans, 5’10” redshirt freshman wing, Trinity Christian, Dallas, TX; missed ’18-’19 due to injury; was nominee for 2018 McDonald’s All-Americans; holds school record for scoring; scored 41 points in one game

Cameron Tabor, 5’9” guard, New Castle (IN) HS; set school record for most points in a game with 45

#8 Dayton Flyers

2018-19 record: 17-14, 10-6 Atlantic 10 (tied for fourth)

Postseason: WNIT first round loss to Northwestern, 74-51

Head coach: Shauna Green

Career record: 91-56, four seasons (previous school: Loras)

Record at Dayton: 62-31, three seasons

Dayton fell off of last year’s record by six wins. They actually improved their defensive performance, going from 61^st to 26^th in defensive rating, but their offensive rating plummeted from 36^th to 200^th. They weren’t able to replace the output of Jenna Burdette and Javonna Layfield. After consecutive trips to the NCAAs, Dayton had to settle for a WNIT berth. Going 2-5 to start the season gave them a hole to dig out of, and only going 2-6 on the road in conference helped ensure they couldn’t overcome that.

Dayton largely returns most of their team, with Lauren Cannatelli as the only starter lost. She was their second leading scorer and easily their most efficient scorer with a 57.4% TS%. Brittany Ward was second on the team in that statistic at 50.8%.

Dayton is reloading with a strong recruiting class with a trio of four-star prospects, which should rank among the best in the A-10.

I’m concerned that they may have further drops in their offensive rating, or at least will fail to significantly improve. With as much returning experience as they have, their defensive rating should remain strong. A defense first team can have success, of course, but it seems unlikely that Dayton will be able to be one of the best teams from the mid-majors unless they get the ball in the basket a lot better than last year.

Key losses:

Graduated: Lauren Cannatelli, 5’8” guard – 31 G, 31 starts, 32.6 MPG, 13.0 PPG, shot 57.4% TS%/47.8 eFG% on 19.9% usage, 18.3 PER, 4.67 BPM, 4.43 VORP, 47.8 free throw rate with 90.6% FT%, 62.2 three point rate with 35.4% 3PT%; Maddy Dennis, 6’2” forward – 30 G, 11 starts, 16.4 MPG, 3.6 PPG, shot 44.5% TS%/40.9 eFG% on 14.8% usage, 10.5 PER, 0.97 BPM, 0.93 VORP, 21.5 DRB%; Tiaera Phillips, 5’11’ guard – 28 G, 2 starts, 11.2 MPG, 1.4 PPG, shot 42.3% TS%/43.1 eFG% on 10.3% usage, 10.0 PER, 2.50 BPM, 0.83 VORP, 63.9 free throw rate with 34.8% FT%

Key returning players:

Araion Bradshaw, 5’6” redshirt junior guard – 31 G, 31 starts, 23.6 MPG, 5.4 PPG, shot 47.7% TS%/40.1 eFG% on 16.1% usage, 13.2 PER, 3.05 BPM, 2.43 VORP, 52.8 free throw rate with 70.7% FT%

Julia Chandler, 6’2” redshirt senior forward – 31 G, 17 starts, 15.2 MPG, 5.7 PPG, shot 46.7% TS%/45.8 eFG% on 24.3% usage, 14.1 PER, -0.75 BPM, 0.39 VORP, 10.73 ORB%

Shakeela Fowler, 5’6” redshirt senior guard – 28 G, 0 starts, 22.0 MPG, 8.5 PPG, shot 43.0% TS%/38.4 eFG% on 25.7% usage, 16.0 PER, 1.85 BPM, 1.41 VORP

Jenna Giacone, 6’1” senior guard – 29 G, 0 starts, 9.8 MPG, 3.1 PPG, shot 43.7% TS%/41.9 eFG% on 20.9% usage, 14.6 PER, 3.44 BPM, 0.94 VORP, 3.02 STL%, 57.6 three point rate with 29.8% 3PT%

Jayla Scaife, 5’10” senior guard – 30 G, 30 starts, 32.5 MPG, 15.7 PPG, shot 47.0% TS%/43.2 eFG% on 28.5% usage, 21.5 PER, 4.75 BPM, 4.17 VORP

Brittany Ward, 6’1” redshirt senior guard – 31 G, 19 starts, 14.0 MPG, 4.1 PPG, shot 50.8% TS%/46.8 eFG% on 18.1% usage, 13.8 PER, 0.82 BPM, 0.80 VORP

Kyla Whitehead, 6’2” sophomore forward – 31 G, 3 starts, 18.5 MPG, 3.5 PPG, shot 47.8% TS%/43.5 eFG% on 13.4% usage, 10.1 PER, 0.75 BPM, 1.03 VORP, 53.8 free throw rate with 58.0% FT%

Jordan Wilmoth, 6’3” senior forward – 28 G, 10 starts, 10.4 MPG, 1.7 PPG, shot 33.7% TS%/31.3 eFG% on 15.5% usage, 3.5 PER, -2.32 BPM, -0.06 VORP

Additions

Freshmen: Destiny Bohanon, 5’10” guard, Wayne HS, Huber Heights, OH – four-star recruit (Prospects Nation); was named to Kentucky/Ohio All-Star team and GWOC National East Player of the Year

Mariah Perez, 6’3” forward, Newark Tech, NJ – four-star recruit (Prospects Nation); set school record for rebounds on the women’s side and double-doubles amongst both men & women; two-time sectional champion

Nadjy Tyler, 6’3” forward, Imhotep Charter, Philadelphia – four-star recruit (Prospects Nation); averaged 10.1 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 2.2 BPG

#9 George Washington Colonials

2018-19 record: 10-20, 7-9 Atlantic 10, tied for eighth place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Jennifer Rizzotti

Career record: 365-260, 20 seasons (previous school: Hartford)

Record at George Mason: 49-44, three seasons

After five straight seasons where the Colonials didn’t finish with less than 19 wins, GW finished with a losing record. Rizzotti’s squad managed to improve defensively by more than 2 points per 100 possessions, but their offensive output plummeted from 92.2 points per 100 possessions to 78.6.

The offensive drop off can largely be attributed to their team’s shooting percentage falling from below average to horrid. They also went from being elite at avoiding turnovers to about average.

Rizzotti’s squad will be hit hard again by graduation, with three starters and a key backup exiting. Those losses include their #2 scorer, Mei-Lyn Bautista, who also tops on the team in assists per game.

They do add three players via transfer, in addition to four freshmen. Two of the froshes are coming off of redshirt seasons due to injury, so they hopefully will be better prepared for the coming season. Their additions includes Alexandra Maud, a transfer from Yale who was a solid scorer off their bench last year. Her addition will be badly needed for this team that struggled offensively last year.

I don’t see a full bounceback with this roster. With the exception of the two graduate transfers, they should expect to have everyone return for 2020-2021. With steady improvement and talent, I think they’ll return to contending next year. This is a team that’s a year away.

Losses:

Graduated: Mei-Lyn Bautista, 5’6” guard – 28 G, 28 starts, 36.0 MPG, 9.3 PPG, shot 43.1% TS%/40.0 eFG% on 19.7% usage, 13.7 PER, 1.65 BPM, 2.23 VORP, 28.62 AST% with 17.6% TO%, 3.35 STL%, 59.5 three point rate with 31.3% 3PT%; Kelsi Mahoney, 6’1” forward – 30 G, 30 starts, 29.4 MPG, 8.3 PPG, shot 51.4% TS%/49.1 eFG% on 18.0% usage, 14.3 PER, 2.21 BPM, 2.41 VORP, 77.8 three point rate with 36.0% 3PT%; Anna Savino, 5’7” guard – 29 G, 27 starts, 25.3 MPG, 2.4 PPG, shot 40.7% TS%/39.8 eFG% on 9.2% usage, 4.2 PER, -2.80 BPM, -0.37 VORP, 67.5 three point rate with 32.1% 3PT%

Transferred: Chyna Latimer, 6’0” junior wing – 25 G, 3 starts, 15.6 MPG, 3.5 PPG, shot 36.3% TS%/34.8 eFG% on 21.2% usage, 7.1 PER, -5.40 BPM, -0.72 VORP; transferred to Delaware

Returning players:

Lexus Levy, 5’6” junior guard – 29 G, 0 starts, 11.8 MPG, 2.6 PPG, shot 42.0% TS%/39.9 eFG% on 17.6% usage, 8.2 PER, -3.70 BPM, -0.36 VORP, 70.2 three point rate with 28.8% 3PT%

Maddie Loder, 5’11” sophomore guard – 29 G, 14 starts, 26.4 MPG, 6.0 PPG, shot 38.9% TS%/34.5 eFG% on 19.9% usage, 6.9 PER, -4.38 BPM, -1.15 VORP

Neila Luma, 6’0” junior forward – 30 G, 28 starts, 28.1 MPG, 10.4 PPG, shot 41.9% TS%/39.0 eFG% on 27.7% usage, 14.7 PER, -2.79 BPM, -0.43 VORP, 19.2 DRB%

Kayla Mokwuah, 6’4” sophomore center – 29 G, 6 starts, 14.6 MPG, 6.5 PPG, shot 49.9% TS%/46.7 eFG% on 31.1% usage, 20.2 PER, -0.19 BPM, 0.48 VORP, 6.29 BLK%, 10.13 ORB%

Sarah Overcash, 6’1” redshirt junior forward – 30 G, 12 starts, 14.4 MPG, 2.0 PPG, shot 44.4% TS%/38.9 eFG% on 11.7% usage, 9.5 PER, -2.23 BPM, -0.07 VORP, 10.68 ORB%, 57.4 free throw rate with 58.1% FT%

Additions

Alexandra Maund, 5’11” graduate student forward – transferred from Yale; 26 G, 3 starts, 18.2 MPG, 5.8 PPG, shot 55.1% TS%/51.6 eFG% on 17.0% usage, 17.3 PER, 0.89 BPM, 0.77 VORP

Ariel Stephenson, 5’10” graduate student guard – transferred from Wake Forest; missed ’18-’19 due to shoulder injury; in ’17-’18, 27 G, 22 starts, 27 MPG, 8.9 PPG, shot 40.7% TS% on 24.5% USG%, 7.2 PER, -5.02 BPM, -1.28 VORP

Sydney Zambrotta, 5’9” redshirt sophomore guard – transferred from Louisville; missed ’18-’19; in ’17-’18, 33 G, 1 start, 10.4 MPG, 3.4 PPG; shot 50.7% TS% on 18.5% USG%, 13.0 PER

Freshmen: Faith Blethen, 6’1” forward, Boothbay Region HS, Boothbay, ME – won state championship as senior; Miss Maine finalist

Essence Brown, 5’11” guard, Galax (VA) HS – First-Team All-State as junior & senior; first player from Galax to sign with a Division I program

Tori Hyduke, 5’6” redshirt freshman guard, Rumson-Fair Haven HS, Fair Haven, NJ – four-state Prospects Nation recruit; missed last season due to injury; twice named NJ.com First Team All-State

Mayowa Taiwo, 6’0” redshirt freshman forward, three-star Prospects Nation recruit; Rockbridge Academy, Hanover, MD – missed last season due to injury; scored 1500 points in career

#10 Rhode Island Rams

2018-19 record: 8-21, 3-13 Atlantic 10, tied for 13^th place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Tammi Reiss

Career record: first season

Record at Rhode Island: same

Last year I predicted that Rhode Island would “have one of the most dramatic single season turnarounds in record this year.”

I was wrong.

Going from three wins to eight wasn’t enough for Dayna La-Force to keep her job. Along with her exit, the Rams lose two key players to graduation and two more to transfers.

Nicole Jorgensen should be the centerpiece of a better team, and yet here we are. Maybe she’ll step up in her senior year – her junior numbers actually fell off from her sophomore season. I had extremely high hopes for her last year, but the inability to even lead this team to double digit wins was a disappointment. Maybe more blame lies with her supporting cast, and that will be a huge weakness this year. Davida Dale is the only returning regular who had a PER that broke double digits.

They do add three players by transfer, but I don’t think they’ll be eligible this season.

This will be a chaotic situation for Rhode Island, with a new coach and a lot of turnover on the roster. They could put everything together to keep playing past the conference tournament, but right now I don’t think they have the juice to break .500.

Losses:

Graduated: Dina Motrechuk, 6’5” center – 27 G, 1 starts, 10.3 MPG, 2.3 PPG, shot 47.0% TS%/45.0 eFG% on 14.5% usage, 14.4 PER, -0.54 BPM, 0.24 VORP, 13.20 BLK%; Jalissa Ross, 6’2” forward – 27 G, 20 starts, 26.2 MPG, 5.9 PPG, shot 42.4% TS%/38.9 eFG% on 17.7% usage, 7.8 PER, -3.33 BPM, -0.55 VORP

Transferred: Elemy Colome, 5’7” redshirt senior guard – graduate transfer to Syracuse; 29 G, 27 starts, 30.4 MPG, 14.1 PPG, shot 50.4% TS%/45.4 eFG% on 27.1% usage, 18.3 PER, -0.05 BPM, 1.08 VORP, 3.02 STL%; Abby Streeter, 5’11” junior guard – 28 G, 2 starts, 12.0 MPG, 3.1 PPG, shot 50.1% TS%/50.0 eFG% on 14.2% usage, 8.9 PER, -4.13 BPM, -0.43 VORP, 89.4 three point rate with 32.9% 3PT%; transferred to Hartford

Returning players:

Davida Dale, 5’11” redshirt senior guard – 26 G, 17 starts, 29.0 MPG, 10.0 PPG, shot 41.6% TS%/35.3 eFG% on 27.6% usage, 12.3 PER, -1.13 BPM, 0.37 VORP, 3.82 STL%

Erin Jones, 6’1” redshirt junior guard – 24 G, 4 starts, 14.1 MPG, 3.3 PPG, shot 46.8% TS%/44.9 eFG% on 15.0% usage, 9.1 PER, -5.05 BPM, -0.54 VORP, 51.9 three point rate with 22.0% 3PT%

Nicole Jorgensen, 6’5” senior center – 28 G, 27 starts, 24.0 MPG, 13.2 PPG, shot 51.2% TS%/48.8 eFG% on 30.0% usage, 26.5 PER, -2.33 BPM, -0.13 VORP, 6.85 BLK%, 19.5 DRB%, 14.11 ORB%, 43.6 free throw rate with 56.1% FT%

Maia Moffitt, 5’10” junior guard – 29 G, 29 starts, 26.2 MPG, 4.2 PPG, shot 47.3% TS%/44.7 eFG% on 11.8% usage, 9.0 PER, 0.21 BPM, 1.05 VORP, 3.87 STL%

Meghan Oberg, 6’3” redshirt junior forward – 25 G, 3 starts, 13.6 MPG, 2.1 PPG, shot 39.8% TS%/33.3 eFG% on 10.8% usage, 8.7 PER, -3.18 BPM, -0.22 VORP

Marta Vargas, 5’9” junior guard – 28 G, 14 starts, 17.8 MPG, 3.3 PPG, shot 38.0% TS%/35.0 eFG% on 17.9% usage, 1.2 PER, -9.12 BPM, -2.14 VORP, 63.2 three point rate with 27.0% 3PT%

Additions

Marie-Paule Foppossi, 6’1” redshirt sophomore forward – transferred from Syracuse; in ’18-’19: 17 G, 0 starts, 6.1 MPG, 0.9 PPG, shot 32.8% TS%/31.8 eFG% on 13.7% usage, 3.1 PER, -5.54 BPM, -0.13 VORP; will likely miss ’19-‘20

Emmanuelle Tahane, 6’1” sophomore forward – transferred from Missouri; in ’18-’19: 35 G, 1 starts, 13.3 MPG, 3.3 PPG, shot 54.7% TS%/51.1 eFG% on 17.6% usage, 14.7 PER, 0.48 BPM, 0.87 VORP, 13.39 ORB%, 46.1 free throw rate with 63.4% FT%; will likely miss ’19-‘20

Veronika Vorackova, 5’9” redshirt sophomore guard – transferred from Syracuse; did not play two previous seasons; native of Czech Republic; won gold with U20 team

Freshmen: Kassondra Brown, 6’2” center, Abington HS, Abington, PA – won Intelligencer’s Player of the Year Award

Brazil Harvey-Carr, 6’1” forward, Leap Academy, Camden, NJ – scored 2,293 points in high school career

Haby Niang, 6’3” center, Les Lilas, France – played for national U16 & U20 teams

#11 Duquesne Dukes

2018-19 record: 19-13, 11-5 Atlantic 10, third place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Dan Burt

Career record: 133-67, six seasons

Record at Duquesne: same

The Dukes won six fewer games from the 2017-18 season and failed to make the postseason. This can largely be tied to a weakened offensive performance, which went from just outside the top 50 to near the national average. They weren’t able to make up for this on the defensive end, either, leaving them unable to make up the difference.

Duquesne is hit heavily by graduation this year, losing four players who recorded at least 12 starts and three players who played at least 22 minutes per game. Of these four, Kadri-Ann Lass is likely the one who contributed the most last year, as she was a solid offensive player in a featured role for the team. Julijana Vojinovic played a huge role on offense and managed solid scoring efficiency numbers as well.

They return a group of players who predominately had small roles on offense, with only Laia Sole carrying even a normal sized load on offense. These leaves big questions offensively. Similarly, their continuity is called into question with their graduation losses. It feels like it’ll be difficult for Duquense to be among the top teams in the A-10. Despite the string of success that Burt has had as their head coach, I’ll play it safe and predict them to fall closer to the middle of the conference this year.

Losses:

Graduated: Kadri-Ann Lass, 6’3” wing – 32 G, 32 starts, 29.0 MPG, 10.9 PPG, shot 48.4% TS%/45.8 eFG% on 22.7% usage, 19.2 PER, 1.60 BPM, 2.30 VORP, 7.94 BLK%; Chassidy Omogrosso, 5’4” guard – 32 G, 23 starts, 28.8 MPG, 12.2 PPG, shot 49.6% TS%/45.1 eFG% on 24.0% usage, 17.7 PER, 0.33 BPM, 1.48 VORP; Conor Richardson, 5’10” guard – 28 G, 12 starts, 15.6 MPG, 4.5 PPG, shot 45.2% TS%/39.8 eFG% on 20.6% usage, 13.7 PER, 0.29 BPM, 0.61 VORP, 4.57 STL%; Julijana Vojinovic, 5’10” guard – 32 G, 14 starts, 22.8 MPG, 10.9 PPG, shot 50.0% TS%/44.1 eFG% on 28.4% usage, 20.2 PER, 1.22 BPM, 1.62 VORP, 56.9 three point rate with 27.1% 3PT%

Returning players:

Nina Aho, 5’10” redshirt junior guard – 5 G, 1 starts, 18.6 MPG, 6.4 PPG, shot 61.8% TS%/62.0 eFG% on 15.6% usage, 17.0 PER, -0.25 BPM, 0.02 VORP

Libby Bazelak, 5’9” junior guard – 32 G, 31 starts, 30.7 MPG, 7.4 PPG, shot 51.2% TS%/46.8 eFG% on 14.8% usage, 17.3 PER, 4.32 BPM, 4.28 VORP, 3.55 STL%

Halle Bovell, 5’11” redshirt junior guard – 32 G, 9 starts, 13.4 MPG, 0.8 PPG, shot 28.2% TS%/22.2 eFG% on 8.3% usage, 5.7 PER, -1.95 BPM, 0.01 VORP, 75.0 free throw rate with 40.7% FT%

Paige Cannon, 6’1” redshirt senior wing – 32 G, 21 starts, 19.8 MPG, 5.3 PPG, shot 55.7% TS%/51.9 eFG% on 15.9% usage, 15.8 PER, 2.79 BPM, 2.10 VORP

Amanda Kalin, 5’8” junior guard – 32 G, 13 starts, 19.3 MPG, 5.8 PPG, shot 51.1% TS%/46.1 eFG% on 17.4% usage, 17.1 PER, 1.49 BPM, 1.49 VORP

Laia Sole, 6’2” redshirt junior forward – 30 G, 1 starts, 12.8 MPG, 4.6 PPG, shot 49.6% TS%/44.4 eFG% on 22.9% usage, 18.3 PER, 0.05 BPM, 0.51 VORP, 41.0 free throw rate with 68.8% FT%

Additions

Freshmen: Caroline Elliott, 5’11” redshirt freshman, Vincentian Academy, Glenshaw, PA – won three WPIAL and two PIAA championships; sister of teammate Kiersten Elliott

Amaya Hamilton, 6’2” wing, Hamilton Southeastern, Fishers, IN – won MVP of Indiana-Kentucky All-Star Game; was selected as a Indiana Junior All-Star

Precious Johnson, 6’4” center, Marks Gymnasieskola, Helsinborg, Sweden – member of U18 & U20 Sweden National Teams

Bernada Rreshpja, 5’10” guard, Valley Christian Academy, Santa Maria, CA – averaged 27 PPG at VCA; native of Albania, where she’s captain of their U18 & senior national teams

Snezhana Serafimoska, 6’4” forward, Nebraska City HS, Nebraska City, NE – native Macedonian, where she compets for their senior national team; expected to redshirt this year

Machaela Simmons, 5’8” redshirt freshman guard, Hayfield HS, Alexandria, VA – first-team All-District selection; selected to All-Tournament Team for Oakton Cougar Classic

#12 Saint Joseph’s Hawks

2018-19 record: 12-19, 7-9 Atlantic 10, tied for eighth place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Cindy Griffin

Career record: 369-280, 21 seasons

Record at Saint Joseph’s: 321-246, 18 seasons

This team wasn’t able to recover from the loss of Chelsea Woods and struggled as a result. They lose five more players entering 2019-2020, including Alyssa Monaghan, the team MVP last year.

Among their returning players, Katie Mayock was the best last year. She’s a strong shot blocker and scored decently efficiently. Her offensive role was limited, though, and if she’s going to be the top player on this team, she’ll likely have to improve notably on that side of the ball.

This team struggled quite a bit on offense. They struggled to get to the free throw line and while they embraced the three pointer, they didn’t make them at a great rate. When you add in their weak offensive rebounding performance, and this is an offense that was fundamentally flawed. They’ll need a lot of work on that side of things.

I don’t think this will be a bounce back season – I just don’t see what members of their roster will be able to step up and lead a winning team in a strong A-10.

Key losses:

Graduated: Kristalyn Baisden, 5’10” guard – 29 G, 28 starts, 29.3 MPG, 8.4 PPG, shot 46.4% TS%/42.9 eFG% on 20.7% usage, 9.3 PER, -2.39 BPM, -0.20 VORP, 53.4 three point rate with 34.6% 3PT%; Michala Clay, 6’0” forward – 21 G, 12 starts, 15.7 MPG, 3.4 PPG, shot 41.0% TS%/36.6 eFG% on 19.2% usage, 10.8 PER, -2.74 BPM, -0.11 VORP; Whisper Fisher, 6’2” forward – 30 G, 18 starts, 18.8 MPG, 3.8 PPG, shot 43.9% TS%/43.1 eFG% on 16.0% usage, 13.6 PER, -0.76 BPM, 0.45 VORP, 5.25 BLK%, 20.0 DRB%; Rachel Gartner, 5’7” graduate student guard – 3 G, 1 starts, 17.0 MPG, 4.0 PPG, shot 55.1% TS%/55.0 eFG% on 18.3% usage, 6.9 PER, -6.48 BPM, -0.01 VORP, 20.5 DRB%; Alyssa Monaghan, 5’5” guard – 30 G, 30 starts, 37.0 MPG, 14.4 PPG, shot 55.9% TS%/49.5 eFG% on 22.5% usage, 21.9 PER, 4.05 BPM, 4.32 VORP

Returning players:

Nailah Delinois, 5’9” senior guard – 23 G, 9 starts, 15.1 MPG, 2.1 PPG, shot 27.2% TS%/25.6 eFG% on 19.3% usage, -1.4 PER, -7.90 BPM, -1.01 VORP

Katie Jekot, 5’9” redshirt sophomore guard – 31 G, 25 starts, 27.4 MPG, 7.5 PPG, shot 39.5% TS%/36.3 eFG% on 22.3% usage, 10.2 PER, -0.94 BPM, 0.60 VORP, 59.4 three point rate with 25.5% 3PT%

Katie Mayock, 6’2” sophomore forward – 31 G, 14 starts, 22.1 MPG, 5.9 PPG, shot 49.6% TS%/47.4 eFG% on 17.7% usage, 19.8 PER, 2.98 BPM, 2.27 VORP, 5.79 BLK%

Lula Roig, 5’9” junior guard – 30 G, 16 starts, 24.5 MPG, 6.1 PPG, shot 47.1% TS%/41.1 eFG% on 19.5% usage, 13.2 PER, -1.13 BPM, 0.41 VORP, 63.2 free throw rate with 60.4% FT%

Mary Sheehan, 5’10” junior guard – 30 G, 2 starts, 18.3 MPG, 3.7 PPG, shot 40.0% TS%/39.2 eFG% on 15.2% usage, 9.3 PER, -2.80 BPM, -0.28 VORP

Additions:

Freshmen: Imogen Ayliffe, 6’2” forward, Willetton Senior High, Perth, Australia

Kaliah Henderson, 5’9” guard, Robinson HS, Riverview, FL

Claire Melia, 6’3” forward, Ardscoil Rath Iomghain, Monasterevin, Ireland

Lauren Ross, 5’9” guard, Shipley School, Media, PA

Gabby Smalls, 6’2” forward, Life Center Academy, Browns Mills, NJ

Jaden Walker, 5’11” wing, Susquehannock, New Freedom, PA

#13 La Salle Explorers

2018-19 record: 6-25, 3-13 Atlantic 10, tied for 13^th place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Mountain MacGillivray

Career record: 6-25, one season

Record at La Salle: same

Jeff Williams was replaced as head coach of La Salle. The Explorers fell from 17-13 to 8-22 in his last two seasons. After that drop, Mountain MacGillivray was given the reigns. His first season was tough, with just six wins overall and only three in conference. He’ll obviously be hoping to get things moving in the positive direction this season.

The toughest obstacle to overcome with this team is a terrible offensive performance last season. They finished in the bottom 10 for offensive rating and offensive true shooting percentage. Pairing that with a mediocre defense was more than enough to make 2018-19 a lost season.

On top of all of that, La Salle lost five regulars to transfers after the season, as well as one more to graduation. This leaves just two returning players who made double digit starts last year.

On the bright side, they do get Shalina Miller back, who’s a solid defensive presence for them. Dej King and Sofilia Ngwafang both looked good in limited time; if they can stay on the court this year, they’ll help this team in better shape. They add three transfers as well, which will boost their experience levels.

This rebuilding job will definitely extend beyond the ’19-’20 season. There’s just too many holes on this team to feel like they’ll be among the Atlantic 10 contenders this year.

Losses:

Graduated: Jeryn Reese, 6’0” forward – 31 G, 29 starts, 28.7 MPG, 8.8 PPG, shot 40.0% TS%/36.9 eFG% on 21.1% usage, 11.8 PER, -3.69 BPM, -1.01 VORP, 20.2 DRB%

Transferred: Rayshel Brown, 5’8” junior guard – transferred to Brown; 21 G, 18 starts, 25.1 MPG, 8.3 PPG, shot 45.7% TS%/44.1 eFG% on 20.9% usage, 13.1 PER, -2.74 BPM, -0.18 VORP, 3.38 STL%

Michelle Nicholls, 5’9” junior wing – transferred to Purdue Fort Wayne; 31 G, 15 starts, 25.8 MPG, 7.4 PPG, shot 44.2% TS%/41.6 eFG% on 20.8% usage, 9.0 PER, -4.25 BPM, -1.20 VORP, 51.9 three point rate with 29.8% 3PT%

Janay Sanders, 5’10” sophomore guard – transferred to Appalachian State; 26 G, 20 starts, 28.2 MPG, 6.6 PPG, shot 36.6% TS%/33.0 eFG% on 21.7% usage, 4.0 PER, -7.47 BPM, -2.25 VORP, 64.8 free throw rate with 43.2% FT%

Shayla Sweeney, 5’11” sophomore guard – transferred to Canisius; 31 G, 11 starts, 22.9 MPG, 5.9 PPG, shot 36.0% TS%/31.0 eFG% on 21.2% usage, 4.0 PER, -7.87 BPM, -2.78 VORP

Jasmine White, 6’1” junior forward – transferred to New haven (D-II); 27 G, 3 starts, 12.1 MPG, 1.5 PPG, shot 33.9% TS%/33.9 eFG% on 12.7% usage, 2.2 PER, -6.95 BPM, -0.94 VORP, 67.8 three point rate with 25.0% 3PT%

Returning players:

Deja King, 5’7” junior guard – 14 G, 12 starts, 31.1 MPG, 9.0 PPG, shot 47.3% TS%/37.1 eFG% on 19.9% usage, 10.8 PER, -3.30 BPM, -0.17 VORP, 3.34 STL%, 61.0 free throw rate with 75.0% FT%

Shalina Miller, 6’2” senior post – 31 G, 28 starts, 25.2 MPG, 8.1 PPG, shot 45.4% TS%/42.0 eFG% on 21.4% usage, 18.1 PER, 1.43 BPM, 1.79 VORP, 7.95 BLK%, 3.11 STL%

Erin Morgan, 5’8” sophomore guard – 28 G, 7 starts, 9.3 MPG, 0.4 PPG, shot 21.4% TS%/16.7 eFG% on 6.4% usage, -0.4 PER, -7.51 BPM, -0.86 VORP, 79.2 three point rate with 10.5% 3PT%

Sofilia Ngwafang, 6’4” senior center – 9 G, 1 starts, 13.7 MPG, 7.0 PPG, shot 53.6% TS%/54.3 eFG% on 27.4% usage, 23.4 PER, -2.62 BPM, -0.01 VORP, 13.45 ORB%, 63.0 free throw rate with 44.8% FT%

Kayla Spruill, 6’0” sophomore wing – 31 G, 9 starts, 17.1 MPG, 5.2 PPG, shot 45.1% TS%/40.5 eFG% on 18.8% usage, 12.2 PER, -2.88 BPM, -0.31 VORP, 52.9 three point rate with 27.2% 3PT%

#14 St. Bonaventure Bonnies

2018-19 record: 8-22, 5-11 Atlantic 10, 12^th place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Jesse Fleming

Career record: 25-66, three seasons

Record at St. Bonaventure: same

The Bonnies failed to break into double digit wins for the third consecutive year after a 8-22 outing. Only one player finished above the “average” mark for Player Efficiency Rating, and that player – Mckenna Maycock – graduated. Three players also transferred out of the program.

The best returning players are Asianae Johnson and Emily Calabrese. Both of them were decent but they seem likely to struggle as top two players for conference contention.

Two junior college transfers come in this season, match last year’s totals. They also add a transfer in Tori Harris plus three freshmen.

Barring tremendous debuts or greatly improved returning players, I don’t see a path where St. Bonaventure finishes with a winning season. I also feel like this is potentially a key season for Jesse Fleming’s career. If they perform poorly, it’s not out of the question that St. Bonaventure will look in a different direction for this team’s future.

Losses:

Graduated: Mckenna Maycock, 5’9” guard – 24 G, 24 starts, 33.3 MPG, 12.3 PPG, shot 48.8% TS%/45.0 eFG% on 23.7% usage, 16.2 PER, 1.17 BPM, 1.30 VORP, 58.7 three point rate with 33.3% 3PT%

Transferred: Abigail Johnson, 6’2” junior forward – 6 G, 0 starts, 9.0 MPG, 2.5 PPG, shot 54.5% TS%/58.3 eFG% on 19.9% usage, 13.1 PER, -7.11 BPM, -0.04 VORP, 16.47 ORB%, 3.24 STL%

Danielle Migliore, 5’7” senior guard – grad transfer to Rutgers; 29 G, 6 starts, 20.7 MPG, 5.6 PPG, shot 45.0% TS%/42.5 eFG% on 19.3% usage, 9.2 PER, -3.21 BPM, -0.45 VORP, 78.3 three point rate with 30.0% 3PT%

Bree Paulson, 6’0” redshirt senior wing – grad transfer to Miami (OH); 30 G, 14 starts, 20.1 MPG, 3.7 PPG, shot 48.8% TS%/48.1 eFG% on 11.1% usage, 7.5 PER, -2.00 BPM, 0.00 VORP, 94.4 three point rate with 33.3% 3PT%

Returning players:

Emily Calabrese, 6’0” junior forward – 30 G, 19 starts, 23.1 MPG, 6.6 PPG, shot 48.5% TS%/44.5 eFG% on 18.7% usage, 13.3 PER, -3.02 BPM, -0.45 VORP

Claudia Del Moral, 5’6” senior guard – 27 G, 3 starts, 12.4 MPG, 2.0 PPG, shot 42.6% TS%/35.6 eFG% on 13.5% usage, 7.6 PER, -4.70 BPM, -0.52 VORP, 50.0 free throw rate with 65.4% FT%

Deja Francis, 5’7” sophomore guard – 30 G, 27 starts, 29.1 MPG, 9.4 PPG, shot 44.3% TS%/39.4 eFG% on 26.4% usage, 10.0 PER, -4.73 BPM, -1.53 VORP, 30.29 AST% with 28.5% TO%

Asianae Johnson, 5’8” sophomore guard – 30 G, 30 starts, 27.0 MPG, 9.7 PPG, shot 46.4% TS%/40.6 eFG% on 24.8% usage, 14.7 PER, -2.36 BPM, -0.19 VORP, 45.8 free throw rate with 66.4% FT%

Dajah Logan, 5’11” senior guard – 30 G, 12 starts, 22.0 MPG, 7.0 PPG, shot 44.7% TS%/42.8 eFG% on 23.0% usage, 10.4 PER, -3.85 BPM, -0.78 VORP

Amanda Oliver, 6’1” senior forward – 29 G, 15 starts, 19.7 MPG, 2.7 PPG, shot 49.4% TS%/48.7 eFG% on 8.8% usage, 11.2 PER, -1.38 BPM, 0.22 VORP, 21.0 DRB%

Additions:

Tori Harris, 6’0” junior guard – transferred from James Madison; will likely miss ’19-’20; in ’18-’19, 25 G, 0 starts, 10.1 MPG, 2.2 PPG, shot 43.3% TS%/40.5 eFG% on 15.7% usage, 9.8 PER, 0.66 BPM, 0.36 VORP, 56.9 three point rate with 33.3% 3PT%

Jurnee President, 5’10” junior guard – transferred from New Mexico JuCo; reached NJCAA Division I National Championship Game

Kayla Wilson, 5’11” junior forward – transferred from Hostos CC; won two straight NJCAA Division III National Championships

Freshmen: Olivia Brown, 5’8” guard, East Grand Rapids HS, East Grand Rapids, MI – All-State Honorable Mention selection; averaged 17.7 PPG in high school

Kaitlyn Parker, 5’9” guard, Dr. Henry A. Wise HS, Suitland, MD – won team’s MVP; averaged 11.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 2.0 APG, 4.1 SPG, 1.1 BPG as senior

Olivia Tucker, 5’9” guard, Sanford HS, Newark, DE – won state championship; thrice selected to Delaware All-State team