Flagrant Stats – Statistical analysis for women's basketball

2024 WNBA Season Predictions

Title Favorites

1. Las Vegas Aces

They have arguably the best player in the league with A’ja Wilson. Emma Cannon, who might not start for them, arguably could start on every other team in the league. 7-10 could be a bit stronger, but Sydney Colson, Dyaisha Fair, Alysha Clark, & Kiah Stokes are probably better than anyone else in those spots in the league except for maybe Connecticut. It’d take a Wilson injury to knock them out of the top two spots in the league.

The #1 Contenders

2. New York Liberty

The Liberty are similar on paper to the Aces, but with a slightly weaker starting five and a slightly weaker bench. Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, & Jonquel Jones is a great top three. Depth is a bit of an issue here, with questions around the availability of Kennedy Burke and Nyara Sabally.

Upset Hunters

3. Seattle Storm

This is a gamble of a pick, but if Nneka Ogwumike holds up & Skylar Diggins-Smith bounces back from missing last year, they could pair well with Jewell Loyd & Ezi Magbegor to reverse last year’s 11-29 record.

4. Dallas Wings

Satou Sabally missing half this year casts doubt here, but if she can produce immediately on return and they can get more quality minutes out of Maddy Siegrist, Teaira McCowan, and Kalani Brown, they should have enough help for Natasha Howard & Arike Ogunbowale. Injuries are a concern – the deep bench looks very unproven.

Playoff Spot Favorites

5. Indiana Fever

Caitlin Clark is obviously going to face a difficult transition in her rookie season, but she’s coming off one of the best individual college seasons in recent memory. The pairing with Aliyah Boston should be a hard problem to solve for opposing defenses, and Kelsey Mitchell and NaLyssa Smith should be more than capable as 3rd & 4th starters.

6. Connecticut Sun

No Brionna Jones for a large chunk of the season hurts (and is enough to push the Sun behind Indiana). Will Alyssa Thomas & DeWanna Bonner be sufficient to push the team early on? Once you get to spot four on the roster, things fall off from the teams ahead of them.

7. Minnesota Lynx

Napheesa Collier is the truth, but there’s a lot of pressure on her to be this team’s engine. You’d hope for a better number two than Alanna Smith or Courtney Williams – both of whom are solid starters, but asking to be the second best player on a playoff team is a bit much. A bench of rookie Alissa Pili, Diamond Miller, Natisha Hiedeman, and whatever Sika Koné can bring won’t be pacing the league.

Playoff Hopefuls

8. Atlanta Dream

The top four – Rhyne Howard, Cheynne Parker, Allisha Gray, and Jordin Canada – will acquit themselves just fine. The big question about just how serious the Dream are about repeating their playoff appearance will be their depth. Tina Charles missed all of last year and fell off hard from her previous high levels of play in 2022. Aerial Powers plummeted down the Lynx depth chart in 2023.

9. Phoenix Mercury

Surely a team with Brittney Griner can’t be the worst team in the league again. But she missed a quarter of the season last year and is getting old by the standards of basketball. Speaking of, Diana Taurasi missed 14 games last year and is in uncharted territory as she heads into her age 42 season. They bet big on Kahleah Copper being the answer, and she will provide a solid presence in the starting 5, but they might really wish they got Kamilla Cardoso instead. Sug Sutton’s shooting was brutal last year.

Waiting on the Draft

10. Washington Mystics

Elena Delle Donne sitting out this year is going to be brutal on the Mystics. EDD is good enough she should have put Washington above the Dream, if not the Lynx, and had the Mystics back in playoff contention. Without her, this is a roster built around Brittney Sykes, Ariel Atkins, and Shakira Austin. That’s a top three that just doesn’t stack up, and their bench has an argument to be the worst second unit in the league.

11. Chicago Sky

Kamilla Cardoso & Angel Reese could be the front court of the future, but it isn’t going to be it for the present. Marina Mabrey did not pan out the way anyone could have hoped after the haul given up for her. When Elizabeth Williams is looking to be your team MVP, you’re not in a great place.

12. Los Angeles Sparks

Even if Cameron Brink outplays Caitlin Clark, this is still a thin team on paper. Lexie Brown looked good in the quarter of 2023 she played, but if the starting five of this team includes her, Layshia Clarendon, Azura Stevens, and Stephanie Talbot, you’re already betting on Paige Bueckers arriving next season.