Flagrant Stats – Statistical analysis for women's basketball

2019-2020 Atlantic 10 Conference Preview

Hello everyone. I’ve fallen off my writing this year, in part because of a new job and in part because of dealing with some personal things that were going on. As a result, there won’t be a full preview book this year like there was last year.

What I will do is write up what I can and share some of it for free on this blog. However, further information on each conference I do finish up before the season starts will be up on my Patreon. For just $5 a month, you’ll get access to the advanced stats I’ll be posting, plus full information for each conference preview I get done, including preseason all-conference teams, team level breakdowns based off the ’18-’19 season, and top player rankings in advanced stats for each conference.

The full A-10 preview will be up on Patreon shortly. For now, enjoy the basic information below.

Team are listed in order of projected finish

#1 Virginia Commonwealth Rams

2018-19 record: 23-9, 13-3 Atlantic 10, tied for first place

Postseason: WNIT second round loss to Virginia Tech, 82-72; first round win vs. Charlotte, 65-52

Head coach: Beth O’Boyle

Career record: 155-116, nine seasons (previous schools: Montclair State, Stony Brook)

Record at VCU: 69-56, four seasons

VCU just had a tremendous single season improvement, going from seven to 23 wins in the span of a year. A lot of that hinged on a fantastic defensive performance that ranked among the season’s best. With almost all of their key personnel from ’18-’19 returning, I don’t have much of a reason to doubt they’ll be able to replicate that performance.

The Rams return their top nine players on last year’s team in terms of minutes played. They’re very much running back the same team, as they have no freshmen on the ’19-’20 roster.

Defensively, Beth O’Boyle’s team didn’t do anything overly flashly like force a huge number of turnovers. They just kept opponents from scoring, with an opposing effective field goal percentage that was the second best in the nation. A huge part of this comes from elite shot blockers Danielle Hammond and Kseniya Malashka. They also controlled the boards, having the 22nd best opposing offensive rebounding rate in D-I.

The Rams offense last year falls solidly in the category of “good enough,” with an offensive rating that put them solidly in the middle of Division I. One thing to note with their offense was their reluctance to take three pointers; VCU ranked in the bottom 50 nationally in their willingness to gun it from deep. However, Olga Petrova (29-71 from 3) and Tera Reed (22-55) both recorded high efficiency in limited tries. If one or both can maintain that success rate with more green light opportunities, it should help diversify and improve their offense.

VCU is among my favorites for the conference. With as much talent as they have returning, it wouldn’t shock me to have them be one of the best mid-majors in the country this year.

Losses:

Graduated: Jailyn Maddox, 5’10” senior guard – 15 G, 0 starts, 8.7 MPG, 2.5 PPG, shot 46.2% TS%/39.4 eFG% on 18.6% usage, 14.2 PER, 0.03 BPM, 0.09 VORP, 48.5 free throw rate with 68.8% FT%

Returning players:

Sydnei Archie, 5’10” junior guard – 34 G, 34 starts, 20.9 MPG, 5.7 PPG, shot 40.5% TS%/39.9 eFG% on 20.9% usage, 10.7 PER, -1.25 BPM, 0.39 VORP

Danielle Hammond, 6’4” senior center – 34 G, 0 starts, 19.2 MPG, 8.7 PPG, shot 62.6% TS%/58.7 eFG% on 23.2% usage, 27.0 PER, 6.73 BPM, 4.18 VORP, 8.71 BLK%, 12.84 ORB%, 73.7 free throw rate with 65.9% FT%

Madison Hattix-Covington, 5’10” redshirt sophomore guard – 34 G, 3 starts, 19.4 MPG, 3.8 PPG, shot 46.9% TS%/41.8 eFG% on 13.2% usage, 11.0 PER, 2.23 BPM, 2.05 VORP

Kseniya Malashka, 6’0” sophomore forward – 34 G, 0 starts, 16.2 MPG, 5.7 PPG, shot 47.3% TS%/44.4 eFG% on 26.3% usage, 16.4 PER, 4.36 BPM, 2.57 VORP, 7.58 BLK%, 3.07 STL%

Sofya Pashigoreva, 5’6” junior center – 34 G, 34 starts, 17.0 MPG, 4.1 PPG, shot 44.5% TS%/40.9 eFG% on 18.7% usage, 12.7 PER, 0.60 BPM, 1.10 VORP, 12.22 ORB%, 41.7 free throw rate with 56.4% FT%

Olga Petrova, 5’8” junior guard – 26 G, 0 starts, 14.6 MPG, 5.3 PPG, shot 52.7% TS%/51.2 eFG% on 22.6% usage, 15.1 PER, 2.23 BPM, 0.90 VORP, 56.3 three point rate with 40.8% 3PT%

Tera Reed, 6’0” junior guard – 31 G, 31 starts, 28.5 MPG, 12.5 PPG, shot 55.4% TS%/46.8 eFG% on 25.4% usage, 21.9 PER, 4.62 BPM, 3.91 VORP, 57.1 free throw rate with 78.8% FT%

Taya Robinson, 5’10” junior guard – 34 G, 34 starts, 28.9 MPG, 9.9 PPG, shot 48.7% TS%/43.5 eFG% on 21.4% usage, 18.7 PER, 5.43 BPM, 5.36 VORP

Nyra Williams, 5’5” senior guard – 34 G, 34 starts, 29.0 MPG, 3.9 PPG, shot 48.9% TS%/42.1 eFG% on 10.8% usage, 10.1 PER, 2.53 BPM, 3.28 VORP, 63.6 free throw rate with 64.7% FT%

Additions:

Janika Griffith-Wallace, 5’9” junior guard – transferred from Murray State; will likely miss ’19-’20; in ’18-’19: 29 G, 20 starts, 29.0 MPG, 11.7 PPG, shot 47.0% TS%/43.2 eFG% on 25.6% usage, 15.3 PER, -1.09 BPM, 0.48 VORP

Freshmen: none

#2 Massachusetts Minutewomen

2018-19 record: 16-16, 7-9 Atlantic 10, tied for 8th place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Tory Verdi

Career record: 114-121, eight seasons (previous schools: Columbia, Eastern Michigan)

Record at Massachusetts: 39-53, three seasons

Imagine a team that finished near the midpoint of Division I in both offensive and defensive rating, and you probably imagine a .500 team. That’s exactly what the Minutewomen were in 2018-2019.

UMass loses two of their key starters from last season, with three point specialist Jessica George and center Anil Burcu Soysal exiting. They lose bench wing Genesis Rivera and swing starter Asia McCoy to graduation and transfer, respectively.

UMass returns a lot of talent from last years. Among their returning players is star point guard Destiney Philoxy, who showed good vision and the ability to score at a high rate despite handling a huge part of the offense. Being able to accomplish all of that just as a freshman was extremely impressive. Also returning is wing Hailey Leidel, who is a confident downtown shooter who can score efficiently.

UMass is in a position to contend for the A-10 crown with all of their returning talent. If that leads to defensive gelling and improve offensive output, they could walk away with a NCAA bid this year.

Losses:

Graduated: Jessica George, 5’10” guard – 32 G, 32 starts, 32.4 MPG, 8.5 PPG, shot 47.3% TS%/45.6 eFG% on 16.9% usage, 11.4 PER, 0.26 BPM, 1.61 VORP, 55.9 three point rate with 35.8% 3PT%; Genesis Rivera, 5’11” wing – 30 G, 5 starts, 14.2 MPG, 4.3 PPG, shot 51.3% TS%/50.4 eFG% on 18.9% usage, 15.8 PER, 0.73 BPM, 0.75 VORP, 20.5 DRB%, 60.8 three point rate with 34.2% 3PT%

Transferred: Asia McCoy, 5’10” sophomore guard – transferred to South Plains College (junior college); 26 G, 16 starts, 22.1 MPG, 4.7 PPG, shot 45.7% TS%/39.4 eFG% on 14.0% usage, 10.9 PER, -2.00 BPM, 0.00 VORP

Anil Burcu Soysal, 6’5” redshirt sophomore center – transferred to UTRGV; 32 G, 31 starts, 19.3 MPG, 4.6 PPG, shot 56.1% TS%/53.8 eFG% on 15.2% usage, 10.7 PER, -2.69 BPM, -0.30 VORP

Returning players:

Bre Hampton-Bey, 5’6” junior guard – 31 G, 22 starts, 24.7 MPG, 8.3 PPG, shot 45.2% TS%/40.5 eFG% on 24.7% usage, 15.6 PER, 0.63 BPM, 1.34 VORP, 3.31 STL%, 41.9 free throw rate with 62.4% FT%

Hailey Leidel, 5’11” senior wing – 32 G, 31 starts, 33.3 MPG, 13.2 PPG, shot 51.9% TS%/46.4 eFG% on 22.9% usage, 22.0 PER, 5.14 BPM, 5.22 VORP, 54.6 three point rate with 33.0% 3PT%

Paige McCormick, 5’11” junior guard – 20 G, 2 starts, 10.3 MPG, 2.8 PPG, shot 41.3% TS%/38.1 eFG% on 20.3% usage, 10.7 PER, -2.87 BPM, -0.08 VORP, 61.9 three point rate with 25.6% 3PT%

Jessica Nelson, 6’2” sophomore forward – 30 G, 1 starts, 19.6 MPG, 4.2 PPG, shot 48.7% TS%/46.2 eFG% on 13.4% usage, 12.1 PER, -0.84 BPM, 0.44 VORP

Vashnie Perry, 5’6” senior guard – 28 G, 15 starts, 18.6 MPG, 6.0 PPG, shot 42.6% TS%/39.9 eFG% on 22.5% usage, 12.4 PER, -2.22 BPM, -0.07 VORP

Destiney Philoxy, 5’7” sophomore guard – 29 G, 5 starts, 21.8 MPG, 10.8 PPG, shot 55.4% TS%/50.4 eFG% on 28.1% usage, 26.8 PER, 5.04 BPM, 2.78 VORP, 35.66 AST% with 18.8% TO%, 3.63 STL%, 49.8 free throw rate with 68.7% FT%

Additions:

Sam Breen, 6’1” junior forward – transferred midseason from Penn State; will miss part of ’19-’20; 4 G, 0 starts, 10.5 MPG, 3.0 PPG, shot 47.0% TS%/45.5 eFG% on 19.3% usage, 14.8 PER, -1.74 BPM, 0.00 VORP, 21.3 DRB%

Desiree Oliver, 5’7” junior guard – transferred from Temple; will miss ’19-’20; in ’18-‘19 19 G, 6 starts, 20.2 MPG, 5.5 PPG, shot 37.6% TS%/35.2 eFG% on 21.9% usage, 9.4 PER, -3.11 BPM, -0.17 VORP

Maddie Sims, 6’2” senior forward – transferred from Siena; will miss ’19-’20; in ’18-’19, 30 G, 28 starts, 34.1 MPG, 12.1 PPG, shot 47.5% TS%/46.6 eFG% on 23.6% usage, 18.1 PER, 0.77 BPM, 1.81 VORP, 20.4 DRB%, 43.2 free throw rate with 46.0% FT%

Freshmen: Maeve Donnelly, 6’5” post, Susquehanna Valley, Binghamton, NY – won Class B All-State First Team honors

Grace Heeps, 5’11” guard, Northfield Mount Hernon, East Greenbush, NY – NEPSAC Class A All-Star

Angelique Ngalakulondi, 6’2” forward, Proctor academy, Manchester, NH – won 2018 New Hampshire Gatorade Player of the Year

Sydney Taylor, 5’9” guard, St. Anthony’s HS, Huntington Station, NY – won CHSAA Championships in first three seasons

#3 George Mason Patriots

2018-19 record: 16-14, 8-8 Atlantic 10, seventh place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Nyla Milleson

Career record: 376-223, 19 seasons (previous schools: Missouri State, Drury)

Record at George Mason: 86-100, six seasons

After breaking a 17 year streak without making the postseason in ’17-‘18, the Patriots fell back to earth, finishing in the middle of the pack. They didn’t stand out on either side of the ball. While some aspects of this team looked promising – an ability to get to the free throw line and grab offensive boards should help a team do better offensively – the results just weren’t there.

They lose two seniors to graduation, but they only combined to play 19.8 MPG. Returning seven key players, including Conference Player of the Year candidate Jacy Bolton, is a promising sign. They also add one of the few ranked recruits for the A-10 in three-star forward recruit Tamia Lawhorne.

I’m optimistic about the talent levels with this team and I think they could contend for the conference championship this year. It should be closer to the ’17-’18 season than last year’s results.

Losses:

Graduated: Casey Davis, 6’2” redshirt senior forward – 16 G, 5 starts, 8.3 MPG, 1.5 PPG, shot 53.0% TS%/50.0 eFG% on 12.1% usage, 13.3 PER, 0.42 BPM, 0.11 VORP, 5.63 BLK%, 10.50 ORB%; Jewel Triggs, 5’11” guard – 30 G, 0 starts, 11.5 MPG, 2.0 PPG, shot 47.5% TS%/43.3 eFG% on 11.0% usage, 14.1 PER, -0.41 BPM, 0.35 VORP, 11.71 ORB%, 86.7 free throw rate with 51.3% FT%

Returning players:

Jacy Bolton, 6’0” senior wing – 30 G, 30 starts, 36.3 MPG, 10.5 PPG, shot 55.0% TS%/50.4 eFG% on 15.6% usage, 20.6 PER, 6.30 BPM, 5.80 VORP, 20.4 DRB%

Nicole Cardano-Hillary, 5’7” junior guard – 30 G, 30 starts, 35.8 MPG, 20.4 PPG, shot 46.7% TS%/40.7 eFG% on 35.9% usage, 21.3 PER, 1.62 BPM, 2.49 VORP, 3.51 STL%

Camarie Gatling, 6’0” junior forward – 30 G, 25 starts, 22.0 MPG, 8.7 PPG, shot 54.9% TS%/55.4 eFG% on 21.8% usage, 20.3 PER, 2.41 BPM, 1.87 VORP, 10.50 ORB%

Alexsis Grate, 5’6” senior guard – 30 G, 12 starts, 19.3 MPG, 4.6 PPG, shot 45.5% TS%/35.5 eFG% on 18.3% usage, 8.7 PER, -3.32 BPM, -0.49 VORP, 65.0 free throw rate with 71.1% FT%

Sarah Kaminski, 5’9” senior guard – 30 G, 20 starts, 25.6 MPG, 7.7 PPG, shot 50.6% TS%/48.6 eFG% on 17.1% usage, 13.9 PER, 2.15 BPM, 2.04 VORP, 81.2 three point rate with 31.6% 3PT%

Marika Korpinen, 5’9” junior guard – 30 G, 25 starts, 25.4 MPG, 5.1 PPG, shot 38.8% TS%/37.6 eFG% on 15.1% usage, 8.4 PER, -1.23 BPM, 0.38 VORP

Allie McCool, 6’2” senior forward – 30 G, 3 starts, 14.2 MPG, 3.8 PPG, shot 52.5% TS%/49.5 eFG% on 14.8% usage, 14.8 PER, -1.72 BPM, 0.08 VORP

Additions

Freshmen: Rachel Balzer, 5’10” guard, Germantown Academy, Doylestown, PA

Jazmyn Doster, 6’2” center, Lake Taylor HS, Norfolk, VA – won Class 4 State Championship, First Team Class 4 All-State

Tamia Lawhorne, 6’0” forward, Long Island Lutheran HS, Amityville, NY – ESPN HoopGurlz three-star recruit; All-Conference selection

Rosie Schweizer, 6’0” redshirt freshman, Canberra Girls Summer School, Canberra, Australia – three-time high school U19 Division I team MVP

Vita Stam, 6’3” freshman, Calandlyceum, Blithoven, Netherlands – member of U16 & U18 Netherlands National Team

Jordan Wakefield, 6’0” guard, John Carroll HS, Abingdon, MD – first team All-IAAM honoree

#4 Fordham Rams

2018-19 record: 25-8, 13-3 Atlantic 10, first place

Postseason: NCAA #14 seed, first round loss to #3 Syracuse, 70-49

Head coach: Stephanie Gaitley

Career record: 633-364, 33 seasons (previous schools: Richmond, Saint Joseph’s, LIU Brooklyn, Monmouth)

Record at Fordham: 169-95, eight seasons

Gaitley continued to be a revelation as Fordham’s coach, taking them to the NCAA tournament last season for their sixth postseason berth in the last eight years.

Fordham loses two starters to graduation this year. Lauren Holden was a decent three point gunner in a small offensive role and recorded the most minutes per game. More notably, Mary Goulding was one of the best players in the conference and helped them improve on both ends of the court. Goulding finished the season with the third best effective field goal percentage last year. The Rams had a slight improvement on the defensive rating by a tenth of a point, but increased their offensive output by 2.4 points per 100 possessions.

Bre Cavanaugh is their best returning player, with a solid scoring efficiency on a huge usage percentage and the second highest scoring average in the A-10 last year. Her Player Efficiency Rating was the seventh best in the A-10. She also finished second in the conference in minutes per game. Also returning is Kaitlyn Downey, who was a top 20 player in the Atlantic 10 in scoring efficiency. If she is able to maintain that efficiency while taking a bigger role in the offense, she could be one of the most improved players in the league. Kendell Heremaia also returns. She was a strong defensive rebounder and a valuable three point shooter for this team.

Fordham does lose two key players, but maintain a strong set of players and add depth with grad transfer Isis Young. I think Fordham will be able to hit at least 20 wins this year.

Losses:

Graduated: Mary Goulding, 6’0” forward – 33 G, 33 starts, 35.6 MPG, 12.8 PPG, shot 55.9% TS%/53.9 eFG% on 20.8% usage, 25.3 PER, 8.44 BPM, 8.73 VORP, 11.04 ORB%; Lauren Holden, 5’5” guard – 34 G, 34 starts, 38.6 MPG, 9.0 PPG, shot 46.8% TS%/42.4 eFG% on 16.4% usage, 9.5 PER, -0.34 BPM, 1.60 VORP, 61.6 three point rate with 31.2% 3PT%

Returning players:

Bre Cavanaugh, 5’8” redshirt junior guard – 34 G, 34 starts, 38.1 MPG, 17.1 PPG, shot 48.3% TS%/43.2 eFG% on 28.1% usage, 22.8 PER, 3.98 BPM, 5.68 VORP

Kaitlyn Downey, 6’1” sophomore forward – 34 G, 29 starts, 20.6 MPG, 6.3 PPG, shot 50.8% TS%/48.2 eFG% on 18.7% usage, 18.3 PER, 2.94 BPM, 2.54 VORP, 54.6 three point rate with 31.1% 3PT%

Kendell Heremaia, 5’9” junior guard – 34 G, 33 starts, 28.5 MPG, 8.1 PPG, shot 48.3% TS%/47.3 eFG% on 21.5% usage, 13.9 PER, 1.81 BPM, 2.70 VORP, 52.0 three point rate with 35.2% 3PT%

Zara Jillings, 5’11” junior guard – 34 G, 4 starts, 18.9 MPG, 3.2 PPG, shot 52.2% TS%/51.5 eFG% on 11.6% usage, 13.2 PER, 1.60 BPM, 1.70 VORP

Megan Jonassen, 6’0” sophomore forward – 33 G, 3 starts, 13.6 MPG, 2.7 PPG, shot 42.7% TS%/42.9 eFG% on 14.1% usage, 14.5 PER, 0.27 BPM, 0.72 VORP, 13.96 ORB%

Additions:

Transfer: Isis Young, 5’7” graduate student guard – transferred from Louisville; 28 G, 0 starts, 7.8 MPG, 2.2 PPG, shot 40.4% TS%/38.7 eFG% on 16.8% usage, 10.9 PER, -1.21 BPM, 0.10 VORP, 81.3 three point rate with 26.2% 3PT%

Freshmen: Anna DeWolfe, 5’8” guard, Greely HS, Cumberland, Maine – four-time All-State honoree, Miss Maine nominee as junior & senior

Eden Johnson, 6’1” forward, Huron HS, Ann Arbor, MI – conference MVP as junior

Sarah Karpell, 5’7” guard, Saint John Vianney, Holmdel, NJ – selected to USJN Nationals All-Tournament Team

#5 Saint Louis Billikens

2018-19 record: 15-16, 9-7 Atlantic 10, sixth place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Lisa Stone

Career record: 623-336, 33 seasons (previous schools: Cornell College, Wisconsin-Eau Claire, Drake, Wisconsin)

Record at Saint Louis: 120-99, seven seasons

Although they barely did fall under .500, they did for the first time since 2014-15, when they also finished 15-16 overall. In 2015-16, they improved to 26-8 and made the first of three straight WNIT trips.

They do lose two regular starters in Jordyn Frantz and Kerri McMahan, who were both solid contributors. The other three high profile exits from the program included two players who occasionally started for them (Amber Lindfors & Evan Zars) and one who usually got a solid number of minutes as a backup (Tasia Jeffries).

Their returning players is highlighted by sophomores Ciaja Harbison and Brooke Flowers. Flowers was a great rebounder and shot blocker, while Harbison created well for her teammates. They hold the promise of being one of the best inside outside combinations in women’s hoops the next three years.

The defense was interesting in that they did great as a group in limiting shot making by their opponents, but they were one of the very worst teams at forcing turnovers. Saint Louis also focused almost exclusively on grabbing defensive rebounds rather than working the offensive glass. As a result, they greatly limited their opponents’ second chances on offense but didn’t have very many of their own to exploit.

Much like ’15-’16, I think the Billikens will have a bounceback season. I think they’ll be among the second tier of teams in the A-10, with a (very) outside chance at winning the conference crown.

Losses:

Graduated: Jordyn Frantz, 6’0” guard – 31 G, 30 starts, 35.9 MPG, 14.1 PPG, shot 51.1% TS%/47.4 eFG% on 23.3% usage, 16.9 PER, 2.80 BPM, 3.52 VORP, 59.1 three point rate with 34.3% 3PT%; Amber Lindfors, 6’4” redshirt senior center – 18 G, 7 starts, 10.2 MPG, 2.9 PPG, shot 45.2% TS%/44.7 eFG% on 18.3% usage, 18.8 PER, 1.60 BPM, 0.25 VORP, 9.04 BLK%, 51.1 free throw rate with 41.7% FT%; Kerri McMahan, 5’10” redshirt senior guard – 31 G, 31 starts, 33.4 MPG, 7.7 PPG, shot 51.7% TS%/46.8 eFG% on 14.5% usage, 12.7 PER, 1.22 BPM, 2.20 VORP

Transferred: Tasia Jeffries, 5’8” junior guard – transferred to Bellarmine (D-II); 23 G, 0 starts, 10.8 MPG, 3.1 PPG, shot 45.9% TS%/42.1 eFG% on 18.3% usage, 13.7 PER, 0.02 BPM, 0.25 VORP, 67.1 three point rate with 27.7% 3PT%; Evan Zars, 6’2” sophomore forward – transferred to Western Illinois; 30 G, 19 starts, 18.8 MPG, 2.1 PPG, shot 40.7% TS%/37.3 eFG% on 10.8% usage, 5.5 PER, -2.11 BPM, -0.04 VORP, 19.8 DRB%

Returning players:

Myia Clark, 5’7” sophomore  guard – 31 G, 12 starts, 18.6 MPG, 4.5 PPG, shot 47.0% TS%/45.2 eFG% on 16.9% usage, 10.1 PER, -0.75 BPM, 0.48 VORP, 50.4 three point rate with 35.3% 3PT%

Brooke Flowers, 6’5” sophomore  post – 31 G, 20 starts, 23.7 MPG, 8.0 PPG, shot 43.9% TS%/42.9 eFG% on 23.0% usage, 21.3 PER, 0.56 BPM, 1.24 VORP, 9.06 BLK%, 24.7 DRB%, 13.29 ORB%

Ciaja Harbison, 5’6” sophomore  guard – 31 G, 31 starts, 36.4 MPG, 14.6 PPG, shot 50.3% TS%/43.2 eFG% on 26.6% usage, 19.0 PER, 1.64 BPM, 2.71 VORP, 30.42 AST% with 21.7% TO%

Chloe Rice, 5’11” sophomore guard – 31 G, 1 starts, 12.2 MPG, 2.7 PPG, shot 46.4% TS%/43.4 eFG% on 15.9% usage, 5.5 PER, -3.04 BPM, -0.26 VORP, 73.5 three point rate with 29.5% 3PT%

Kendra Wilken, 6’2” senior forward – 26 G, 4 starts, 11.8 MPG, 5.1 PPG, shot 53.2% TS%/47.4 eFG% on 24.8% usage, 22.6 PER, -1.04 BPM, 0.16 VORP, 12.19 ORB%, 68.8 free throw rate with 63.6% FT%

Additions:

Hannah Dossett, 5’6” graduate student guard – transferred from Syracuse; will be first season of collegiate basketball

Victoria Mikkelsen, 6’1” junior forward – transferred from Independence CC in Kansas; averaged 7.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG

Myriama Smith Traore, 6’2” sophomore forward – transferred from Marquette; missed ’18-’19, in ’17-’18, 11 G, 0 starts, 7.6 MPG, 1.7 PPG, shot 52.2% TS% on 12.2% USG%, 11.2 PER; led team with 4.58% BLK%

Jaidah Stewart, 5’9” sophomore guard – midseason transfer from Houston; played one game before transfer; will be eligible for spring semester of ’19-‘20

Freshmen: Lia Enos, 5’10” wing, Tuscaloosa Academy, Miami, FL – missed senior year due to injury;

Rachel Kent, 5’11” wing, Maine West HS, Des Plaines, IL – ESPN HoopGurlz three-star recruit; four-time selection to IBCA All-State team

Julia Martinez, 5’10” guard, Loyola Academy, Chicago, IL – three-time IBCA All-State selection

#6 Richmond Spiders

2018-19 record: 9-21, 6-10 Atlantic 10, 11th place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Aaron Roussell

Career record: 312-122, 15 seasons (previous schools: Chicago, Bucknell)

Record at Richmond: first season

The Spiders will head into ’19-’20 with a new head coach. Michael Shafer was removed after 14 seasons at the helm for Richmond. He was the second-longest tenured coach in school history.

This team was a mess on offense, with shooting efficiency percentages that placed them among the bottom 20 nationally. They also didn’t get to the free throw line and didn’t get offensive rebounds. They struggled defensively, as well, and played at a very slow place. I can’t imagine fans were enthralled with the on-court product.

Richmond is fortunate in that they only lose one key player from last year’s team in Daijia Ruffin.

Their best player from last year, Jaide Hinds-Clarke, only started 26 of her 30 games, and played just 737 minutes on a slow paced team. She was the only player on the team that finished with a positive BPM. If the Spiders are going to improve in 2019-2020, they’ll need to lean heavily on her.

The addition of Kaila Clark (a rare transfer from a service academy) is big news for Richmond. If she is able to play at the same level she did as a Midshipmen, she’ll really help this team rise up the ranks.

Hinds-Clarke has the potential to be good enough to make Richmond contend as high as fourth in the A-10, but they need to really improve their depth from last year to achieve this. Barring one of the best improvements this year, I don’t think they’ll contend for the conference title.

Losses:

Graduated: Daijia Ruffin, 5’9” graduate student guard – 27 G, 10 starts, 21.9 MPG, 7.0 PPG, shot 44.2% TS%/38.7 eFG% on 23.0% usage, 13.5 PER, -3.02 BPM, -0.35 VORP, 47.5 free throw rate with 61.9% FT%

Returning players:

Aniyah Carpenter, 5’8” sophomore guard – 30 G, 10 starts, 19.0 MPG, 5.2 PPG, shot 39.2% TS%/37.2 eFG% on 21.8% usage, 7.1 PER, -6.84 BPM, -1.79 VORP

Amy Duggan, 6’0” senior forward – 29 G, 24 starts, 25.8 MPG, 3.7 PPG, shot 41.0% TS%/37.4 eFG% on 11.2% usage, 11.2 PER, -0.96 BPM, 0.49 VORP

Jayana Ervin, 5’8” senior guard – 21 G, 5 starts, 14.0 MPG, 3.2 PPG, shot 42.1% TS%/40.3 eFG% on 19.3% usage, 9.5 PER, -5.54 BPM, -0.47 VORP, 3.82 STL%

Kailyn Fee, 5’6” junior guard – 20 G, 4 starts, 14.3 MPG, 3.5 PPG, shot 35.6% TS%/33.3 eFG% on 20.8% usage, 4.3 PER, -7.86 BPM, -0.73 VORP, 78.5 three point rate with 21.9% 3PT%

Jaide Hinds-Clarke, 6’1” senior forward – 30 G, 26 starts, 24.6 MPG, 10.2 PPG, shot 44.4% TS%/41.0 eFG% on 27.6% usage, 23.4 PER, 0.71 BPM, 1.30 VORP, 23.2 DRB%, 11.80 ORB%, 3.86 STL%, 41.0 free throw rate with 55.8% FT%

Claire Holt, 5’6” sophomore guard – 25 G, 9 starts, 16.8 MPG, 5.2 PPG, shot 45.6% TS%/41.6 eFG% on 21.5% usage, 11.3 PER, -4.83 BPM, -0.64 VORP, 55.7 three point rate with 28.8% 3PT%

Molly Mraz, 5’8” sophomore guard – 30 G, 23 starts, 17.5 MPG, 2.1 PPG, shot 35.2% TS%/33.1 eFG% on 11.5% usage, 1.7 PER, -7.42 BPM, -1.85 VORP, 79.1 three point rate with 25.0% 3PT%

Madelyn Neff, 6’1” sophomore forward – 19 G, 1 starts, 12.2 MPG, 2.2 PPG, shot 40.1% TS%/36.5 eFG% on 14.3% usage, 9.3 PER, -5.02 BPM, -0.29 VORP

Alex Parson, 5’6” junior guard – 30 G, 30 starts, 31.3 MPG, 10.2 PPG, shot 41.5% TS%/38.9 eFG% on 24.7% usage, 10.8 PER, -3.22 BPM, -0.75 VORP

Emma Squires, 6’2” sophomore forward – 17 G, 5 starts, 19.0 MPG, 5.0 PPG, shot 39.5% TS%/36.6 eFG% on 21.3% usage, 6.7 PER, -5.46 BPM, -0.41 VORP, 55.4 three point rate with 21.4% 3PT%

Additions:

Kaila Clark, 5’11” junior forward – transferred from Navy; missed ’18-’19; in ’17-’18, 33 G, 33 starts, 25.5 MPG, 7.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.61 SPG, 2.09 BPG, shot 45.4% TS% on 19.0% USG%, 23.2 PER, 12.59 BPM, 8.76 VORP

Kate Klimkiewicz, 6’0” sophomore guard – transferred from Boston College; in ’18-’19: 13 G, 0 starts, 3.3 MPG, 0.9 PPG, shot 43.2% TS%/42.3 eFG% on 14.5% usage, 15.5 PER, 1.94 BPM, 0.05 VORP, 76.9 three point rate with 30.0% 3PT%; will likely miss ’19-‘20

Freshmen: Angel Burgos, 5’8” guard, Trinity Episcopal, Richmond, VA – second-team All-Metro selection in ’18-’19, second-team VISAA All-State in ’17-‘18

Elaina Chapman, 6’3” forward, Trinity Episcopal, Richmond, VA – ESPN HoopGurlz top 100 prospect, four-star recruit; was named Richmond Times-Dispatch Player of the Year

Cecil Satter, 6’0” forward, Loyola Academy, Glencoe, IL – won MVP for team Illinois in Missouri vs. Illinois All-Star game; IBCA Class 4A Third-Team All-State selection

#7 Davidson Wildcats

2018-19 record: 17-15, 10-6 Atlantic 10 (tied for fourth)

Postseason: WBI first round loss to Marshall, 67-64

Head coach: Gayle Coats Fulks

Career record: 29-43, two seasons

Record at Davidson: same

Davidson improved by five wins from 2017-18. This improvement was largely fueled by an improved offensive performance, which moved them from 256th nationally to 173rd. The Wildcats’ best victory came against the 25-win Fordham squad on the road. The North Carolina squad ended their season with their first trip to the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals before falling to Dayton. That was Davidson’s sixth loss to Dayton in as many meetings.

With a bid to the WBI, Davidson made its first trip to the postseason since 2013’s WNIT trip.

In last year’s preview, I raised questions about who would carry the offensive load for the Wildcats. Among the starters, a lot of that portion of the team’s responsibilities was sophomore wing Sarah Donovan. Donovan was not just an elite rebounder, but also a strong interior scorer for the Wildcats. She finished the year second on the team in PER and first in VORP.

The 2017 A-10’s Most Improved Player, senior Justine Lyon handled an outsized offensive role coming off the bench for Davidson. Despite just one start, Lyon was the leading scorer on the team at 13.1 PPG. Her graduation will hurt the team. They also lose Kianna Speight, who was a very good offensive contributor on a team that needed it. She shot 33.6% from deep while scoring 10.0 PPG.

Key losses:

Graduated: Justine Lyon, 5’9” guard – 31 G, 2 starts, 25.2 MPG, 13.1 PPG, shot 48.4% TS%/44.4 eFG% on 29.0% usage, 24.4 PER, 4.61 BPM, 3.44 VORP, 3.44 STL%; Kyla Roland, 6’2” forward – 31 G, 1 starts, 13.5 MPG, 0.9 PPG, shot 25.5% TS%/21.6 eFG% on 10.7% usage, 5.1 PER, -0.55 BPM, 0.41 VORP, 22.1 DRB%; Kianna Speight, 5’8” guard – 32 G, 32 starts, 27.8 MPG, 10.0 PPG, shot 50.3% TS%/47.3 eFG% on 19.8% usage, 15.5 PER, 3.65 BPM, 3.46 VORP, 3.14 STL%, 72.5 three point rate with 33.6% 3PT%

Key returning players:

Sarah Donovan, 6’0″ junior wing – 32 G, 32 starts, 32.5 MPG, 12.9 PPG, shot 47.5% TS%/45.1 eFG% on 23.0% usage, 21.5 PER, 4.39 BPM, 4.57 VORP, 11.34 ORB%

Kelly Fitzgerald, 5’6” junior guard – 29 G, 0 starts, 10.3 MPG, 3.2 PPG, shot 45.3% TS%/43.8 eFG% on 22.2% usage, 7.1 PER, -5.73 BPM, -0.70 VORP

Cassidy Gould, 5’9” sophomore guard – 32 G, 31 starts, 26.7 MPG, 7.9 PPG, shot 56.1% TS%/51.8 eFG% on 17.9% usage, 12.4 PER, 0.61 BPM, 1.53 VORP

Katie Turner, 5’7” junior guard – 32 G, 32 starts, 34.4 MPG, 12.2 PPG, shot 50.0% TS%/44.7 eFG% on 19.7% usage, 17.5 PER, 3.04 BPM, 3.82 VORP, 56.5 three point rate with 29.6% 3PT%

Chloe Welch, 5’9” sophomore guard – 28 G, 0 starts, 8.1 MPG, 1.3 PPG, shot 30.0% TS%/28.3 eFG% on 15.4% usage, 6.2 PER, -3.05 BPM, -0.14 VORP

Ally Welling, 6’3” senior forward – 32 G, 30 starts, 24.8 MPG, 5.3 PPG, shot 39.7% TS%/37.3 eFG% on 14.7% usage, 9.8 PER, -1.87 BPM, 0.07 VORP

Additions

Freshmen: Peyton Carter, 6’1” forward, Nease HS, St. Augustine, FL; also competed in golf and track in high school; was second team All First-Coast selection as junior

Suzi-Rose Deegan, 5’10” guard, Sacred Heart College/Lake Ginninderra Collee, Marmion, Australia; also competed in Australian Rules Football and cross country; three-time MVP of Western Australia; won bronze as part of Australian 3×3 Youth Olympics team in 2018; holds school’s record in 400, 800, and 1500 meters

Adelaide Fuller, 6’3” forward, All Hallow’s School, Brisbane, Australia; was MVP of Brisbane Capitals in ’17-‘18

Sarah Konstans, 5’10”  redshirt freshman wing, Trinity Christian, Dallas, TX; missed ’18-’19 due to injury; was nominee for 2018 McDonald’s All-Americans; holds school record for scoring; scored 41 points in one game

Cameron Tabor, 5’9” guard, New Castle (IN) HS; set school record for most points in a game with 45

#8 Dayton Flyers

2018-19 record: 17-14, 10-6 Atlantic 10 (tied for fourth)

Postseason: WNIT first round loss to Northwestern, 74-51

Head coach: Shauna Green

Career record: 91-56, four seasons (previous school: Loras)

Record at Dayton: 62-31, three seasons

Dayton fell off of last year’s record by six wins. They actually improved their defensive performance, going from 61st to 26th in defensive rating, but their offensive rating plummeted from 36th to 200th. They weren’t able to replace the output of Jenna Burdette and Javonna Layfield. After consecutive trips to the NCAAs, Dayton had to settle for a WNIT berth. Going 2-5 to start the season gave them a hole to dig out of, and only going 2-6 on the road in conference helped ensure they couldn’t overcome that.

Dayton largely returns most of their team, with Lauren Cannatelli as the only starter lost. She was their second leading scorer and easily their most efficient scorer with a 57.4% TS%. Brittany Ward was second on the team in that statistic at 50.8%.

Dayton is reloading with a strong recruiting class with a trio of four-star prospects, which should rank among the best in the A-10.

I’m concerned that they may have further drops in their offensive rating, or at least will fail to significantly improve. With as much returning experience as they have, their defensive rating should remain strong. A defense first team can have success, of course, but it seems unlikely that Dayton will be able to be one of the best teams from the mid-majors unless they get the ball in the basket a lot better than last year.

Key losses:

Graduated: Lauren Cannatelli, 5’8” guard – 31 G, 31 starts, 32.6 MPG, 13.0 PPG, shot 57.4% TS%/47.8 eFG% on 19.9% usage, 18.3 PER, 4.67 BPM, 4.43 VORP, 47.8 free throw rate with 90.6% FT%, 62.2 three point rate with 35.4% 3PT%; Maddy Dennis, 6’2” forward – 30 G, 11 starts, 16.4 MPG, 3.6 PPG, shot 44.5% TS%/40.9 eFG% on 14.8% usage, 10.5 PER, 0.97 BPM, 0.93 VORP, 21.5 DRB%; Tiaera Phillips, 5’11’ guard – 28 G, 2 starts, 11.2 MPG, 1.4 PPG, shot 42.3% TS%/43.1 eFG% on 10.3% usage, 10.0 PER, 2.50 BPM, 0.83 VORP, 63.9 free throw rate with 34.8% FT%

Key returning players:

Araion Bradshaw, 5’6” redshirt junior guard – 31 G, 31 starts, 23.6 MPG, 5.4 PPG, shot 47.7% TS%/40.1 eFG% on 16.1% usage, 13.2 PER, 3.05 BPM, 2.43 VORP, 52.8 free throw rate with 70.7% FT%

Julia Chandler, 6’2” redshirt senior forward – 31 G, 17 starts, 15.2 MPG, 5.7 PPG, shot 46.7% TS%/45.8 eFG% on 24.3% usage, 14.1 PER, -0.75 BPM, 0.39 VORP, 10.73 ORB%

Shakeela Fowler, 5’6” redshirt senior guard – 28 G, 0 starts, 22.0 MPG, 8.5 PPG, shot 43.0% TS%/38.4 eFG% on 25.7% usage, 16.0 PER, 1.85 BPM, 1.41 VORP

Jenna Giacone, 6’1” senior guard – 29 G, 0 starts, 9.8 MPG, 3.1 PPG, shot 43.7% TS%/41.9 eFG% on 20.9% usage, 14.6 PER, 3.44 BPM, 0.94 VORP, 3.02 STL%, 57.6 three point rate with 29.8% 3PT%

Jayla Scaife, 5’10” senior guard – 30 G, 30 starts, 32.5 MPG, 15.7 PPG, shot 47.0% TS%/43.2 eFG% on 28.5% usage, 21.5 PER, 4.75 BPM, 4.17 VORP

Brittany Ward, 6’1” redshirt senior guard – 31 G, 19 starts, 14.0 MPG, 4.1 PPG, shot 50.8% TS%/46.8 eFG% on 18.1% usage, 13.8 PER, 0.82 BPM, 0.80 VORP

Kyla Whitehead, 6’2” sophomore forward – 31 G, 3 starts, 18.5 MPG, 3.5 PPG, shot 47.8% TS%/43.5 eFG% on 13.4% usage, 10.1 PER, 0.75 BPM, 1.03 VORP, 53.8 free throw rate with 58.0% FT%

Jordan Wilmoth, 6’3” senior forward – 28 G, 10 starts, 10.4 MPG, 1.7 PPG, shot 33.7% TS%/31.3 eFG% on 15.5% usage, 3.5 PER, -2.32 BPM, -0.06 VORP

Additions

Freshmen: Destiny Bohanon, 5’10” guard, Wayne HS, Huber Heights, OH – four-star recruit (Prospects Nation); was named to Kentucky/Ohio All-Star team and GWOC National East Player of the Year

Mariah Perez, 6’3” forward, Newark Tech, NJ – four-star recruit (Prospects Nation); set school record for rebounds on the women’s side and double-doubles amongst both men & women; two-time sectional champion

Nadjy Tyler, 6’3” forward, Imhotep Charter, Philadelphia – four-star recruit (Prospects Nation); averaged 10.1 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 2.2 BPG

#9 George Washington Colonials

2018-19 record: 10-20, 7-9 Atlantic 10, tied for eighth place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Jennifer Rizzotti

Career record: 365-260, 20 seasons (previous school: Hartford)

Record at George Mason: 49-44, three seasons

After five straight seasons where the Colonials didn’t finish with less than 19 wins, GW finished with a losing record. Rizzotti’s squad managed to improve defensively by more than 2 points per 100 possessions, but their offensive output plummeted from 92.2 points per 100 possessions to 78.6.

The offensive drop off can largely be attributed to their team’s shooting percentage falling from below average to horrid. They also went from being elite at avoiding turnovers to about average.

Rizzotti’s squad will be hit hard again by graduation, with three starters and a key backup exiting. Those losses include their #2 scorer, Mei-Lyn Bautista, who also tops on the team in assists per game.

They do add three players via transfer, in addition to four freshmen. Two of the froshes are coming off of redshirt seasons due to injury, so they hopefully will be better prepared for the coming season. Their additions includes Alexandra Maud, a transfer from Yale who was a solid scorer off their bench last year. Her addition will be badly needed for this team that struggled offensively last year.

I don’t see a full bounceback with this roster. With the exception of the two graduate transfers, they should expect to have everyone return for 2020-2021. With steady improvement and talent, I think they’ll return to contending next year. This is a team that’s a year away.

Losses:

Graduated: Mei-Lyn Bautista, 5’6” guard – 28 G, 28 starts, 36.0 MPG, 9.3 PPG, shot 43.1% TS%/40.0 eFG% on 19.7% usage, 13.7 PER, 1.65 BPM, 2.23 VORP, 28.62 AST% with 17.6% TO%, 3.35 STL%, 59.5 three point rate with 31.3% 3PT%; Kelsi Mahoney, 6’1” forward – 30 G, 30 starts, 29.4 MPG, 8.3 PPG, shot 51.4% TS%/49.1 eFG% on 18.0% usage, 14.3 PER, 2.21 BPM, 2.41 VORP, 77.8 three point rate with 36.0% 3PT%; Anna Savino, 5’7” guard – 29 G, 27 starts, 25.3 MPG, 2.4 PPG, shot 40.7% TS%/39.8 eFG% on 9.2% usage, 4.2 PER, -2.80 BPM, -0.37 VORP, 67.5 three point rate with 32.1% 3PT%

Transferred: Chyna Latimer, 6’0” junior wing – 25 G, 3 starts, 15.6 MPG, 3.5 PPG, shot 36.3% TS%/34.8 eFG% on 21.2% usage, 7.1 PER, -5.40 BPM, -0.72 VORP; transferred to Delaware

Returning players:

Lexus Levy, 5’6” junior guard – 29 G, 0 starts, 11.8 MPG, 2.6 PPG, shot 42.0% TS%/39.9 eFG% on 17.6% usage, 8.2 PER, -3.70 BPM, -0.36 VORP, 70.2 three point rate with 28.8% 3PT%

Maddie Loder, 5’11” sophomore guard – 29 G, 14 starts, 26.4 MPG, 6.0 PPG, shot 38.9% TS%/34.5 eFG% on 19.9% usage, 6.9 PER, -4.38 BPM, -1.15 VORP

Neila Luma, 6’0” junior forward – 30 G, 28 starts, 28.1 MPG, 10.4 PPG, shot 41.9% TS%/39.0 eFG% on 27.7% usage, 14.7 PER, -2.79 BPM, -0.43 VORP, 19.2 DRB%

Kayla Mokwuah, 6’4” sophomore center – 29 G, 6 starts, 14.6 MPG, 6.5 PPG, shot 49.9% TS%/46.7 eFG% on 31.1% usage, 20.2 PER, -0.19 BPM, 0.48 VORP, 6.29 BLK%, 10.13 ORB%

Sarah Overcash, 6’1” redshirt junior forward – 30 G, 12 starts, 14.4 MPG, 2.0 PPG, shot 44.4% TS%/38.9 eFG% on 11.7% usage, 9.5 PER, -2.23 BPM, -0.07 VORP, 10.68 ORB%, 57.4 free throw rate with 58.1% FT%

Additions

Alexandra Maund, 5’11” graduate student forward – transferred from Yale; 26 G, 3 starts, 18.2 MPG, 5.8 PPG, shot 55.1% TS%/51.6 eFG% on 17.0% usage, 17.3 PER, 0.89 BPM, 0.77 VORP

Ariel Stephenson, 5’10” graduate student guard – transferred from Wake Forest; missed ’18-’19 due to shoulder injury; in ’17-’18, 27 G, 22 starts, 27 MPG, 8.9 PPG, shot 40.7% TS% on 24.5% USG%, 7.2 PER, -5.02 BPM, -1.28 VORP

Sydney Zambrotta, 5’9” redshirt sophomore guard – transferred from Louisville; missed ’18-’19; in ’17-’18, 33 G, 1 start, 10.4 MPG, 3.4 PPG; shot 50.7% TS% on 18.5% USG%, 13.0 PER

Freshmen: Faith Blethen, 6’1” forward, Boothbay Region HS, Boothbay, ME – won state championship as senior; Miss Maine finalist

Essence Brown, 5’11” guard, Galax (VA) HS – First-Team All-State as junior & senior; first player from Galax to sign with a Division I program

Tori Hyduke, 5’6” redshirt freshman guard, Rumson-Fair Haven HS, Fair Haven, NJ – four-state Prospects Nation recruit; missed last season due to injury; twice named NJ.com First Team All-State

Mayowa Taiwo, 6’0” redshirt freshman forward, three-star Prospects Nation recruit; Rockbridge Academy, Hanover, MD – missed last season due to injury; scored 1500 points in career

#10 Rhode Island Rams

2018-19 record: 8-21, 3-13 Atlantic 10, tied for 13th place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Tammi Reiss

Career record: first season

Record at Rhode Island: same

Last year I predicted that Rhode Island would “have one of the most dramatic single season turnarounds in record this year.”

I was wrong.

Going from three wins to eight wasn’t enough for Dayna La-Force to keep her job. Along with her exit, the Rams lose two key players to graduation and two more to transfers.

Nicole Jorgensen should be the centerpiece of a better team, and yet here we are. Maybe she’ll step up in her senior year – her junior numbers actually fell off from her sophomore season. I had extremely high hopes for her last year, but the inability to even lead this team to double digit wins was a disappointment. Maybe more blame lies with her supporting cast, and that will be a huge weakness this year. Davida Dale is the only returning regular who had a PER that broke double digits.

They do add three players by transfer, but I don’t think they’ll be eligible this season.

This will be a chaotic situation for Rhode Island, with a new coach and a lot of turnover on the roster. They could put everything together to keep playing past the conference tournament, but right now I don’t think they have the juice to break .500.

Losses:

Graduated: Dina Motrechuk, 6’5” center – 27 G, 1 starts, 10.3 MPG, 2.3 PPG, shot 47.0% TS%/45.0 eFG% on 14.5% usage, 14.4 PER, -0.54 BPM, 0.24 VORP, 13.20 BLK%; Jalissa Ross, 6’2” forward – 27 G, 20 starts, 26.2 MPG, 5.9 PPG, shot 42.4% TS%/38.9 eFG% on 17.7% usage, 7.8 PER, -3.33 BPM, -0.55 VORP

Transferred: Elemy Colome, 5’7” redshirt senior guard – graduate transfer to Syracuse; 29 G, 27 starts, 30.4 MPG, 14.1 PPG, shot 50.4% TS%/45.4 eFG% on 27.1% usage, 18.3 PER, -0.05 BPM, 1.08 VORP, 3.02 STL%; Abby Streeter, 5’11” junior guard – 28 G, 2 starts, 12.0 MPG, 3.1 PPG, shot 50.1% TS%/50.0 eFG% on 14.2% usage, 8.9 PER, -4.13 BPM, -0.43 VORP, 89.4 three point rate with 32.9% 3PT%; transferred to Hartford

Returning players:

Davida Dale, 5’11” redshirt senior guard – 26 G, 17 starts, 29.0 MPG, 10.0 PPG, shot 41.6% TS%/35.3 eFG% on 27.6% usage, 12.3 PER, -1.13 BPM, 0.37 VORP, 3.82 STL%

Erin Jones, 6’1” redshirt junior guard – 24 G, 4 starts, 14.1 MPG, 3.3 PPG, shot 46.8% TS%/44.9 eFG% on 15.0% usage, 9.1 PER, -5.05 BPM, -0.54 VORP, 51.9 three point rate with 22.0% 3PT%

Nicole Jorgensen, 6’5” senior center – 28 G, 27 starts, 24.0 MPG, 13.2 PPG, shot 51.2% TS%/48.8 eFG% on 30.0% usage, 26.5 PER, -2.33 BPM, -0.13 VORP, 6.85 BLK%, 19.5 DRB%, 14.11 ORB%, 43.6 free throw rate with 56.1% FT%

Maia Moffitt, 5’10” junior guard – 29 G, 29 starts, 26.2 MPG, 4.2 PPG, shot 47.3% TS%/44.7 eFG% on 11.8% usage, 9.0 PER, 0.21 BPM, 1.05 VORP, 3.87 STL%

Meghan Oberg, 6’3” redshirt junior forward – 25 G, 3 starts, 13.6 MPG, 2.1 PPG, shot 39.8% TS%/33.3 eFG% on 10.8% usage, 8.7 PER, -3.18 BPM, -0.22 VORP

Marta Vargas, 5’9” junior guard – 28 G, 14 starts, 17.8 MPG, 3.3 PPG, shot 38.0% TS%/35.0 eFG% on 17.9% usage, 1.2 PER, -9.12 BPM, -2.14 VORP, 63.2 three point rate with 27.0% 3PT%

Additions

Marie-Paule Foppossi, 6’1” redshirt sophomore forwardtransferred from Syracuse; in ’18-’19: 17 G, 0 starts, 6.1 MPG, 0.9 PPG, shot 32.8% TS%/31.8 eFG% on 13.7% usage, 3.1 PER, -5.54 BPM, -0.13 VORP; will likely miss ’19-‘20

Emmanuelle Tahane, 6’1” sophomore forward – transferred from Missouri; in ’18-’19: 35 G, 1 starts, 13.3 MPG, 3.3 PPG, shot 54.7% TS%/51.1 eFG% on 17.6% usage, 14.7 PER, 0.48 BPM, 0.87 VORP, 13.39 ORB%, 46.1 free throw rate with 63.4% FT%; will likely miss ’19-‘20

Veronika Vorackova, 5’9” redshirt sophomore guard – transferred from Syracuse; did not play two previous seasons; native of Czech Republic; won gold with U20 team

Freshmen: Kassondra Brown, 6’2” center, Abington HS, Abington, PA – won Intelligencer’s Player of the Year Award

Brazil Harvey-Carr, 6’1” forward, Leap Academy, Camden, NJ – scored 2,293 points in high school career

Haby Niang, 6’3” center, Les Lilas, France – played for national U16 & U20 teams

#11 Duquesne Dukes

2018-19 record: 19-13, 11-5 Atlantic 10, third place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Dan Burt

Career record: 133-67, six seasons

Record at Duquesne: same

The Dukes won six fewer games from the 2017-18 season and failed to make the postseason. This can largely be tied to a weakened offensive performance, which went from just outside the top 50 to near the national average. They weren’t able to make up for this on the defensive end, either, leaving them unable to make up the difference.

Duquesne is hit heavily by graduation this year, losing four players who recorded at least 12 starts and three players who played at least 22 minutes per game. Of these four, Kadri-Ann Lass is likely the one who contributed the most last year, as she was a solid offensive player in a featured role for the team. Julijana Vojinovic played a huge role on offense and managed solid scoring efficiency numbers as well.

They return a group of players who predominately had small roles on offense, with only Laia Sole carrying even a normal sized load on offense. These leaves big questions offensively. Similarly, their continuity is called into question with their graduation losses. It feels like it’ll be difficult for Duquense to be among the top teams in the A-10. Despite the string of success that Burt has had as their head coach, I’ll play it safe and predict them to fall closer to the middle of the conference this year.

Losses:

Graduated: Kadri-Ann Lass, 6’3” wing – 32 G, 32 starts, 29.0 MPG, 10.9 PPG, shot 48.4% TS%/45.8 eFG% on 22.7% usage, 19.2 PER, 1.60 BPM, 2.30 VORP, 7.94 BLK%; Chassidy Omogrosso, 5’4” guard – 32 G, 23 starts, 28.8 MPG, 12.2 PPG, shot 49.6% TS%/45.1 eFG% on 24.0% usage, 17.7 PER, 0.33 BPM, 1.48 VORP; Conor Richardson, 5’10” guard – 28 G, 12 starts, 15.6 MPG, 4.5 PPG, shot 45.2% TS%/39.8 eFG% on 20.6% usage, 13.7 PER, 0.29 BPM, 0.61 VORP, 4.57 STL%; Julijana Vojinovic, 5’10” guard – 32 G, 14 starts, 22.8 MPG, 10.9 PPG, shot 50.0% TS%/44.1 eFG% on 28.4% usage, 20.2 PER, 1.22 BPM, 1.62 VORP, 56.9 three point rate with 27.1% 3PT%

Returning players:

Nina Aho, 5’10” redshirt junior guard – 5 G, 1 starts, 18.6 MPG, 6.4 PPG, shot 61.8% TS%/62.0 eFG% on 15.6% usage, 17.0 PER, -0.25 BPM, 0.02 VORP

Libby Bazelak, 5’9” junior guard – 32 G, 31 starts, 30.7 MPG, 7.4 PPG, shot 51.2% TS%/46.8 eFG% on 14.8% usage, 17.3 PER, 4.32 BPM, 4.28 VORP, 3.55 STL%

Halle Bovell, 5’11” redshirt junior guard – 32 G, 9 starts, 13.4 MPG, 0.8 PPG, shot 28.2% TS%/22.2 eFG% on 8.3% usage, 5.7 PER, -1.95 BPM, 0.01 VORP, 75.0 free throw rate with 40.7% FT%

Paige Cannon, 6’1” redshirt senior wing – 32 G, 21 starts, 19.8 MPG, 5.3 PPG, shot 55.7% TS%/51.9 eFG% on 15.9% usage, 15.8 PER, 2.79 BPM, 2.10 VORP

Amanda Kalin, 5’8” junior guard – 32 G, 13 starts, 19.3 MPG, 5.8 PPG, shot 51.1% TS%/46.1 eFG% on 17.4% usage, 17.1 PER, 1.49 BPM, 1.49 VORP

Laia Sole, 6’2” redshirt junior forward – 30 G, 1 starts, 12.8 MPG, 4.6 PPG, shot 49.6% TS%/44.4 eFG% on 22.9% usage, 18.3 PER, 0.05 BPM, 0.51 VORP, 41.0 free throw rate with 68.8% FT%

Additions

Freshmen: Caroline Elliott, 5’11” redshirt freshman, Vincentian Academy, Glenshaw, PA – won three WPIAL and two PIAA championships; sister of teammate Kiersten Elliott

Amaya Hamilton, 6’2” wing, Hamilton Southeastern, Fishers, IN – won MVP of Indiana-Kentucky All-Star Game; was selected as a Indiana Junior All-Star

Precious Johnson, 6’4” center, Marks Gymnasieskola, Helsinborg, Sweden – member of U18 & U20 Sweden National Teams

Bernada Rreshpja, 5’10” guard, Valley Christian Academy, Santa Maria, CA – averaged 27 PPG at VCA; native of Albania, where she’s captain of their U18 & senior national teams

Snezhana Serafimoska, 6’4” forward, Nebraska City HS, Nebraska City, NE – native Macedonian, where she compets for their senior national team; expected to redshirt this year

Machaela Simmons, 5’8” redshirt freshman guard, Hayfield HS, Alexandria, VA – first-team All-District selection; selected to All-Tournament Team for Oakton Cougar Classic

#12 Saint Joseph’s Hawks

2018-19 record: 12-19, 7-9 Atlantic 10, tied for eighth place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Cindy Griffin

Career record: 369-280, 21 seasons

Record at Saint Joseph’s: 321-246, 18 seasons

This team wasn’t able to recover from the loss of Chelsea Woods and struggled as a result. They lose five more players entering 2019-2020, including Alyssa Monaghan, the team MVP last year.

Among their returning players, Katie Mayock was the best last year. She’s a strong shot blocker and scored decently efficiently. Her offensive role was limited, though, and if she’s going to be the top player on this team, she’ll likely have to improve notably on that side of the ball.

This team struggled quite a bit on offense. They struggled to get to the free throw line and while they embraced the three pointer, they didn’t make them at a great rate. When you add in their weak offensive rebounding performance, and this is an offense that was fundamentally flawed. They’ll need a lot of work on that side of things.

I don’t think this will be a bounce back season – I just don’t see what members of their roster will be able to step up and lead a winning team in a strong A-10.

Key losses:

Graduated: Kristalyn Baisden, 5’10” guard – 29 G, 28 starts, 29.3 MPG, 8.4 PPG, shot 46.4% TS%/42.9 eFG% on 20.7% usage, 9.3 PER, -2.39 BPM, -0.20 VORP, 53.4 three point rate with 34.6% 3PT%; Michala Clay, 6’0” forward – 21 G, 12 starts, 15.7 MPG, 3.4 PPG, shot 41.0% TS%/36.6 eFG% on 19.2% usage, 10.8 PER, -2.74 BPM, -0.11 VORP; Whisper Fisher, 6’2” forward – 30 G, 18 starts, 18.8 MPG, 3.8 PPG, shot 43.9% TS%/43.1 eFG% on 16.0% usage, 13.6 PER, -0.76 BPM, 0.45 VORP, 5.25 BLK%, 20.0 DRB%; Rachel Gartner, 5’7” graduate student guard – 3 G, 1 starts, 17.0 MPG, 4.0 PPG, shot 55.1% TS%/55.0 eFG% on 18.3% usage, 6.9 PER, -6.48 BPM, -0.01 VORP, 20.5 DRB%; Alyssa Monaghan, 5’5” guard – 30 G, 30 starts, 37.0 MPG, 14.4 PPG, shot 55.9% TS%/49.5 eFG% on 22.5% usage, 21.9 PER, 4.05 BPM, 4.32 VORP

Returning players:

Nailah Delinois, 5’9” senior guard – 23 G, 9 starts, 15.1 MPG, 2.1 PPG, shot 27.2% TS%/25.6 eFG% on 19.3% usage, -1.4 PER, -7.90 BPM, -1.01 VORP

Katie Jekot, 5’9” redshirt sophomore guard – 31 G, 25 starts, 27.4 MPG, 7.5 PPG, shot 39.5% TS%/36.3 eFG% on 22.3% usage, 10.2 PER, -0.94 BPM, 0.60 VORP, 59.4 three point rate with 25.5% 3PT%

Katie Mayock, 6’2” sophomore forward – 31 G, 14 starts, 22.1 MPG, 5.9 PPG, shot 49.6% TS%/47.4 eFG% on 17.7% usage, 19.8 PER, 2.98 BPM, 2.27 VORP, 5.79 BLK%

Lula Roig, 5’9” junior guard – 30 G, 16 starts, 24.5 MPG, 6.1 PPG, shot 47.1% TS%/41.1 eFG% on 19.5% usage, 13.2 PER, -1.13 BPM, 0.41 VORP, 63.2 free throw rate with 60.4% FT%

Mary Sheehan, 5’10” junior guard – 30 G, 2 starts, 18.3 MPG, 3.7 PPG, shot 40.0% TS%/39.2 eFG% on 15.2% usage, 9.3 PER, -2.80 BPM, -0.28 VORP

Additions:

Freshmen: Imogen Ayliffe, 6’2” forward, Willetton Senior High, Perth, Australia

Kaliah Henderson, 5’9” guard, Robinson HS, Riverview, FL

Claire Melia, 6’3” forward, Ardscoil Rath Iomghain, Monasterevin, Ireland

Lauren Ross, 5’9” guard, Shipley School, Media, PA

Gabby Smalls, 6’2” forward, Life Center Academy, Browns Mills, NJ

Jaden Walker, 5’11” wing, Susquehannock, New Freedom, PA

#13 La Salle Explorers

2018-19 record: 6-25, 3-13 Atlantic 10, tied for 13th place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Mountain MacGillivray

Career record: 6-25, one season

Record at La Salle: same

Jeff Williams was replaced as head coach of La Salle. The Explorers fell from 17-13 to 8-22 in his last two seasons. After that drop, Mountain MacGillivray was given the reigns. His first season was tough, with just six wins overall and only three in conference. He’ll obviously be hoping to get things moving in the positive direction this season.

The toughest obstacle to overcome with this team is a terrible offensive performance last season. They finished in the bottom 10 for offensive rating and offensive true shooting percentage. Pairing that with a mediocre defense was more than enough to make 2018-19 a lost season.

On top of all of that, La Salle lost five regulars to transfers after the season, as well as one more to graduation. This leaves just two returning players who made double digit starts last year.

On the bright side, they do get Shalina Miller back, who’s a solid defensive presence for them. Dej King and Sofilia Ngwafang both looked good in limited time; if they can stay on the court this year, they’ll help this team in better shape. They add three transfers as well, which will boost their experience levels.

This rebuilding job will definitely extend beyond the ’19-’20 season. There’s just too many holes on this team to feel like they’ll be among the Atlantic 10 contenders this year.

Losses:

Graduated: Jeryn Reese, 6’0” forward – 31 G, 29 starts, 28.7 MPG, 8.8 PPG, shot 40.0% TS%/36.9 eFG% on 21.1% usage, 11.8 PER, -3.69 BPM, -1.01 VORP, 20.2 DRB%

Transferred: Rayshel Brown, 5’8” junior guard – transferred to Brown; 21 G, 18 starts, 25.1 MPG, 8.3 PPG, shot 45.7% TS%/44.1 eFG% on 20.9% usage, 13.1 PER, -2.74 BPM, -0.18 VORP, 3.38 STL%

Michelle Nicholls, 5’9” junior wing – transferred to Purdue Fort Wayne; 31 G, 15 starts, 25.8 MPG, 7.4 PPG, shot 44.2% TS%/41.6 eFG% on 20.8% usage, 9.0 PER, -4.25 BPM, -1.20 VORP, 51.9 three point rate with 29.8% 3PT%

Janay Sanders, 5’10” sophomore guard – transferred to Appalachian State; 26 G, 20 starts, 28.2 MPG, 6.6 PPG, shot 36.6% TS%/33.0 eFG% on 21.7% usage, 4.0 PER, -7.47 BPM, -2.25 VORP, 64.8 free throw rate with 43.2% FT%

Shayla Sweeney, 5’11” sophomore guard – transferred to Canisius; 31 G, 11 starts, 22.9 MPG, 5.9 PPG, shot 36.0% TS%/31.0 eFG% on 21.2% usage, 4.0 PER, -7.87 BPM, -2.78 VORP

Jasmine White, 6’1” junior forward – transferred to New haven (D-II); 27 G, 3 starts, 12.1 MPG, 1.5 PPG, shot 33.9% TS%/33.9 eFG% on 12.7% usage, 2.2 PER, -6.95 BPM, -0.94 VORP, 67.8 three point rate with 25.0% 3PT%

Returning players:

Deja King, 5’7” junior guard – 14 G, 12 starts, 31.1 MPG, 9.0 PPG, shot 47.3% TS%/37.1 eFG% on 19.9% usage, 10.8 PER, -3.30 BPM, -0.17 VORP, 3.34 STL%, 61.0 free throw rate with 75.0% FT%

Shalina Miller, 6’2” senior post – 31 G, 28 starts, 25.2 MPG, 8.1 PPG, shot 45.4% TS%/42.0 eFG% on 21.4% usage, 18.1 PER, 1.43 BPM, 1.79 VORP, 7.95 BLK%, 3.11 STL%

Erin Morgan, 5’8” sophomore guard – 28 G, 7 starts, 9.3 MPG, 0.4 PPG, shot 21.4% TS%/16.7 eFG% on 6.4% usage, -0.4 PER, -7.51 BPM, -0.86 VORP, 79.2 three point rate with 10.5% 3PT%

Sofilia Ngwafang, 6’4” senior center – 9 G, 1 starts, 13.7 MPG, 7.0 PPG, shot 53.6% TS%/54.3 eFG% on 27.4% usage, 23.4 PER, -2.62 BPM, -0.01 VORP, 13.45 ORB%, 63.0 free throw rate with 44.8% FT%

Kayla Spruill, 6’0” sophomore wing – 31 G, 9 starts, 17.1 MPG, 5.2 PPG, shot 45.1% TS%/40.5 eFG% on 18.8% usage, 12.2 PER, -2.88 BPM, -0.31 VORP, 52.9 three point rate with 27.2% 3PT%

#14 St. Bonaventure Bonnies

2018-19 record: 8-22, 5-11 Atlantic 10, 12th place

Postseason: none

Head coach: Jesse Fleming

Career record: 25-66, three seasons

Record at St. Bonaventure: same

The Bonnies failed to break into double digit wins for the third consecutive year after a 8-22 outing. Only one player finished above the “average” mark for Player Efficiency Rating, and that player – Mckenna Maycock – graduated. Three players also transferred out of the program.

The best returning players are Asianae Johnson and Emily Calabrese. Both of them were decent but they seem likely to struggle as top two players for conference contention.

Two junior college transfers come in this season, match last year’s totals. They also add a transfer in Tori Harris plus three freshmen.

Barring tremendous debuts or greatly improved returning players, I don’t see a path where St. Bonaventure finishes with a winning season. I also feel like this is potentially a key season for Jesse Fleming’s career. If they perform poorly, it’s not out of the question that St. Bonaventure will look in a different direction for this team’s future.

Losses:

Graduated: Mckenna Maycock, 5’9” guard – 24 G, 24 starts, 33.3 MPG, 12.3 PPG, shot 48.8% TS%/45.0 eFG% on 23.7% usage, 16.2 PER, 1.17 BPM, 1.30 VORP, 58.7 three point rate with 33.3% 3PT%

Transferred: Abigail Johnson, 6’2” junior forward – 6 G, 0 starts, 9.0 MPG, 2.5 PPG, shot 54.5% TS%/58.3 eFG% on 19.9% usage, 13.1 PER, -7.11 BPM, -0.04 VORP, 16.47 ORB%, 3.24 STL%

Danielle Migliore, 5’7” senior guard – grad transfer to Rutgers; 29 G, 6 starts, 20.7 MPG, 5.6 PPG, shot 45.0% TS%/42.5 eFG% on 19.3% usage, 9.2 PER, -3.21 BPM, -0.45 VORP, 78.3 three point rate with 30.0% 3PT%

Bree Paulson, 6’0” redshirt senior wing – grad transfer to Miami (OH); 30 G, 14 starts, 20.1 MPG, 3.7 PPG, shot 48.8% TS%/48.1 eFG% on 11.1% usage, 7.5 PER, -2.00 BPM, 0.00 VORP, 94.4 three point rate with 33.3% 3PT%

Returning players:

Emily Calabrese, 6’0” junior forward – 30 G, 19 starts, 23.1 MPG, 6.6 PPG, shot 48.5% TS%/44.5 eFG% on 18.7% usage, 13.3 PER, -3.02 BPM, -0.45 VORP

Claudia Del Moral, 5’6” senior guard – 27 G, 3 starts, 12.4 MPG, 2.0 PPG, shot 42.6% TS%/35.6 eFG% on 13.5% usage, 7.6 PER, -4.70 BPM, -0.52 VORP, 50.0 free throw rate with 65.4% FT%

Deja Francis, 5’7” sophomore guard – 30 G, 27 starts, 29.1 MPG, 9.4 PPG, shot 44.3% TS%/39.4 eFG% on 26.4% usage, 10.0 PER, -4.73 BPM, -1.53 VORP, 30.29 AST% with 28.5% TO%

Asianae Johnson, 5’8” sophomore guard – 30 G, 30 starts, 27.0 MPG, 9.7 PPG, shot 46.4% TS%/40.6 eFG% on 24.8% usage, 14.7 PER, -2.36 BPM, -0.19 VORP, 45.8 free throw rate with 66.4% FT%

Dajah Logan, 5’11” senior guard – 30 G, 12 starts, 22.0 MPG, 7.0 PPG, shot 44.7% TS%/42.8 eFG% on 23.0% usage, 10.4 PER, -3.85 BPM, -0.78 VORP

Amanda Oliver, 6’1” senior forward – 29 G, 15 starts, 19.7 MPG, 2.7 PPG, shot 49.4% TS%/48.7 eFG% on 8.8% usage, 11.2 PER, -1.38 BPM, 0.22 VORP, 21.0 DRB%

Additions:

Tori Harris, 6’0” junior guard – transferred from James Madison; will likely miss ’19-’20; in ’18-’19, 25 G, 0 starts, 10.1 MPG, 2.2 PPG, shot 43.3% TS%/40.5 eFG% on 15.7% usage, 9.8 PER, 0.66 BPM, 0.36 VORP, 56.9 three point rate with 33.3% 3PT%

Jurnee President, 5’10” junior guard – transferred from New Mexico JuCo; reached NJCAA Division I National Championship Game

Kayla Wilson, 5’11” junior forward – transferred from Hostos CC; won two straight NJCAA Division III National Championships

Freshmen: Olivia Brown, 5’8” guard, East Grand Rapids HS, East Grand Rapids, MI – All-State Honorable Mention selection; averaged 17.7 PPG in high school

Kaitlyn Parker, 5’9” guard, Dr. Henry A. Wise HS, Suitland, MD – won team’s MVP; averaged 11.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 2.0 APG, 4.1 SPG, 1.1 BPG as senior

Olivia Tucker, 5’9” guard, Sanford HS, Newark, DE – won state championship; thrice selected to Delaware All-State team

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