Flagrant Stats – Statistical analysis for women's basketball

Introducing FOWLES – an excitement score

I’ve tossed together a new statistic to help you prioritize your March Madness watching experience: FOWLES (Figures Observed, Weighted, and Leading to an Excitement Score). It’s a weighted average of six factors that I hope will allow for prioritization of which games to watch during the women’s NCAA tournament.

The six factors are:

  • 50% closeness in team strength, using ELO ratings obtained from warrennolan.com
  • 20% the average of the two teams’ pace of play
  • 15% the average of scoring efficiency of the two teams on a per possession basis
  • 5% the average of the two teams’ rate of taking three point shots, measured as percentage of field goals taken that are three pointers
  • 5% the average of the two teams’ turnovers forced per game
  • 5% the average of the two teams’ blocks per game

My reasoning for the weighting is that the most exciting thing this time of year is close games (duh), but that scoring helps, playing fast helps, and threes & turnovers are exciting but not necessary.

I hope this fairly silly tool at least gives you an idea of what games to prioritize watching on Friday & Saturday.

Here are the first round’s games in order of FOWLES. All games are on ESPN & ESPN.

GameTimeFOWLES Score
No. 9 Clemson vs. No. 8 South Dakota3/22 7 p.m.81.3
No. 12 Rice vs. No. 5 Marquette3/22 1:45 p.m.81.2
No. 10 Buffalo vs. No. 7 Rutgers3/22 4 p.m.80.7
No. 10 Auburn vs. No. 7 BYU3/23 3:30 p.m.79.8
No. 11 Quinnipiac vs. No. 6 South Dakota State3/23 11 a.m.79.4
No. 9 North Carolina vs. No. 8 California3/23 3:30 p.m.79.2
No. 13 Florida Gulf Coast vs. No. 4 Miami3/22 9 p.m.79.0
No. 11 Princeton vs. No. 6 Kentucky3/23 11 a.m.78.4
No. 10 Drake vs. No. 7 Missouri3/22 4 p.m.78.1
No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 8 Central Michigan3/23 1 p.m.78.1
No. 12 Bucknell vs. No. 5 Florida State3/22 4 p.m.77.7
No. 13 Boise State vs. No. 4 Oregon State3/23 5:30 p.m.76.5
No. 9 Kansas State vs. No. 8 Michigan3/22 1:45 p.m.76.3
No. 13 Belmont vs. No. 4 South Carolina3/22 1:45 p.m.76.2
No. 12 UCF vs. No. 5 Arizona State3/22 7 p.m.76.0
No. 11 Tennessee vs. No. 6 UCLA3/23 1 p.m.74.7
No. 14 New Mexico State vs. No. 3 Iowa State3/23 5:30 p.m.74.0
No. 14 Fordham vs. No. 3 Syracuse3/23 1 p.m.74.0
No. 11 Missouri State vs. No. 6 DePaul3/23 3:30 p.m.73.9
No. 13 Wright State vs. No. 4 Texas A&M3/22 4 p.m.72.6
No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 7 Texas3/22 7 p.m.71.8
No. 12 Little Rock vs. No. 5 Gonzaga3/23 3:30 p.m.71.8
No. 14 Maine vs. No. 3 NC State3/23 1 p.m.69.7
No. 15 Mercer vs. No. 2 Iowa3/22 1:45 p.m.69.1
No. 14 Radford vs. No. 3 Maryland3/23 11 a.m.68.3
No. 15 UC Davis vs. No. 2 Stanford3/23 5:30 p.m.68.1
No. 15 Portland State vs. No. 2 Oregon3/22 9 p.m.65.1
No. 15 Towson vs. No. 2 UConn3/22 7 p.m.62.8
No. 16 Abilene Christian vs. No. 1 Baylor3/23 5:30 p.m.61.5
No. 16 Robert Morris vs. No. 1 Louisville3/22 noon60.5
No. 16 Southern vs. No. 1 Mississippi State3/22 9 p.m.59.0
No. 16 Bethune-Cookman vs. No. 1 Notre Dame3/23 11 a.m.56.6

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